COVID State of Origin: NSW vs VIC

Yesterday, NSW recorded 77 new local COVID cases taking the state’s total active infections to 514:

NSW active local COVID cases

Rising fast.

With NSW cases rising fast, there has been a lot of media commentary comparing NSW’s latest COVID outbreak to Victoria’s Winter-Spring outbreak last year, which saw Melbourne locked-down for 14 consecutive weeks.

In order to add a data perspective to the debate, below are a series of charts comparing the two outbreaks.

First, the next chart shows new active local infections since cases began rising. Day 1 for Victoria is 14 June 2020, whereas it is 17 June 2021 for NSW:

New local COVID cases

Victoria well ahead of NSW at the same point in time.

24 days into their respective outbreaks, NSW had recorded 77 new local COVID cases (yesterday’s figure) versus Victoria’s 149 at the same point in time.

Victoria was also well ahead of NSW with respect to total active cases – 860 versus 514 – 24 days in:

Active local COVID cases

Victoria had more active COVID cases than NSW at same point in time.

Victoria’s total active COVID cases also peaked at 7,880 on 11 August 2020 – roughly 15 times more than NSW’s current count.

Finally, NSW has currently recorded only 1 COVID death from this outbreak. This compares to Victoria, which recorded just over 800 deaths over the course of its outbreak:

COVID deaths

Victoria recorded around 80% of the nation’s COVID deaths.

The other big difference between the two COVID outbreaks is that Victorians received JobKeeper and the JobSeeker Supplement, both of which are currently not available for NSW.

My prediction is that the NSW Government will come clean and state that Sydney will be locked down for several more weeks and that the Commonwealth will have to provide assistance. The Morrison Government will then respond with a support package.

The Morrison Government will lose the election if they don’t step up, since they have stuffed the vaccine rollout and abrogated quarantine.

The nation’s biggest state (or any state for that matter) cannot be expected to close for months without receiving financial assistance from the Commonwealth. Victorians received assistance during their long lockdown, so too should NSW.

Unconventional Economist
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  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    None of this would have happened if we’d been able to stop NSWers from eating bats.

    And koalas.

    • Was about to post that.

      Poor old Clotty’s guts must be churning when Capital rings Krudd to fix thing.

      Capital Calls Krudd; “Come Coax Concoction Capacity” … Clotty Claims Contract Consultation Created Capacity Contribution

  2. July 8th Sydney had 39,733 tests – and that number is falling – this is incredibly concerning.

    • As a casual why would you test? Your on your own with no support, just keep on carrying on

    • That is one of the first signs that the population are getting over the covid hype and are getting ready to just live with it.

  3. If NSW gets more than 25 deaths, then this will be more than that expected from vaccinating the whole population with AZ. The media has been in hysterics about AZ, so we have half the vaccination rate of Fiji who are using the AZ that we have donated to them. Australia through its media including this site is reaping what it has sown.

      • It might be fair to say MB has been (rightfully) going hard on the connection between Morrison and the Director of Comms (or whatever) at AZ, and to a large extent, ignoring the data about efficacy and real risk from the clots.

        • There are risks in everything you do. There is no zero risk in Medicine. Read Chris Uhlman’s excellent piece last week in Fairfax.

          AZ has been used by many countries who are well ahead of us in the vaccination race. We have real data showing that AZ is effective even with variants. We are now giving away AZ to other countries who will complete their vaccination programs well before us.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          I disagree. There are a ton of articles on MB warning about risks from the clots. To be fair most of them are just about the PM but some of the other Libs/Nats are covered too.


      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        There were 655 deaths of residents in Federal Government–subsidised aged care in Victoria, from a total of 1991 cases in those facilities.

        I don’t have the exact number to hand, but the majority of deaths occurred in facilities without Covid Plans.

        By the 20 August 2020, 2,692 healthcare workers in Victoria had contracted Covid (14% of cases).

        At this stage, it looks like NSW has done a good job in containing spread in Aged Care and Health Care workers.

        • One of the few positives of the vaccination program is the risk based ranking in terms of the phases. Hopefully this means that aged care deaths will be few and we don’t have many medical staff infected. Victoria got close to a medical staff shortage if it wasn’t for the generous staff from other states to work in Victoria at the peak of the second wave.

    • That’s wrong. The real calculation should be if NSW gets more than 25 deaths UNDER 60 – over 60s should be getting AZ. The incidence of the problematic blood clots are negatively corelated with age but COVID is positively corelated with age.
      That said – the smart thing to do would have been not putting all eggs in one basket like other countries had done.

      • Your mathematics is incorrect. You will be looking for around 20 deaths as you need to adjust the population to under 60 and factor in the one in a million chance.

  4. I doubt Menacing Controlling Wallpaper can suddenly stop lying, to us or Pfizer, it’s a form of daily prayer for him.

    To restate the obvious, he is cruelly and pathologically unfit for high public office. Australia cannot even afford to have him there, until the next election. If the military won’t remove him, then I call on Peter and Josh to purge him.

  5. TheLambKingMEMBER

    Have a look here showing the Vic numbers with the dates & numbers when controls were brought in. It starkly shows the mistakes and time wasting! Lockdown lite started with 149 daily cases. The numbers really only stopped with stage 4 lockdown.

    Sydney needs to go to a Stage 4 lockdown today (no retail.) Numbers will take 2 weeks post that to turn negative. Then the days in stage 4 will follow the Vic curve above – and the bigger the starting number, the longer in stage 4 lockdown. But lets say we have 100 today and Gladys announces Stage 4 lockdown today (and Leith admits he was wrong to bag Dan) then we have 2 weeks for the turn around, then another 5-6 weeks to get the control. So Sydney is currently looking at AT LEAST 8 weeks in stage 4 lockdown from today.

    But Gladys needs to swallow her pride and announce a Stage 4 lockdown and follow Brett Sutton’s (and Dan’s) plan, and Freedenberg needs to pony up some financial support.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      She will be rolled as Premier, and NSW end up with the ‘let it rip’ and fully-vaccinated members of the Cabinet taking over.

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      As a first step she should get on the blower to Darryl Maguire to concoct some relationship type excuse for being a tool.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Rt 1.8. That’s not good.

      That gets NSW to ~9800 cases per day in 12 days, if personal movement continues in the current patterns and the transmissibility is maintained.

      Has NSW really bested Victoria? We won’t know for another 7 days LvO.

      • Charles MartinMEMBER

        Records are meant to be broken. The problem with Australia is we don’t care what the record actually is.

      • Plus Vic didn’t have the knowledge and experience that is now available – or should be. The ABC has done a good piece in how NSW has seermingly taken and learnt little from Vic – pretty inexcusable.

  6. Alex Rondelson

    Netherlands recorded 10,000 COVID cases yesterday
    Deaths…. 1.
    Vaccines have nullified this thing. Just open up already.

    160,000 Aussies die each year, 440 per day. A couple of deaths here and there from COVID is just noise.

    • I salute your epic humour.

      Because of course you know full well our fully-vaccinated rate is not enough yet.

    • Exactly! So the VIC deaths were largely just another Fed stuff up laid at the feet of a scapegoat State govt.

      Teflon Scummo.

  7. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    The problem is strategy , as always with the governemnt. You have two strategic objectives you can choose between and implement.

    Strategy 1. No virus until fully vaccinated (assuming mutations are covered by vax). This means you must FULLY lock down during outbreaks until there are no community transmission for 1-2 weeks.

    Strategy 2. Let it rip and have faith in contact tracing and that the health system can cope (we agree it can’t). UK is persuing this now-let’s watch.

    The absolutely worst strategy is saying you are doing 1, then not fully locking down because you end up in the ‘letting it rip zone’ without the plan to do so.

    It’s been another disgraceful display of no strategy and no targets.

    It’s like trying to open up the international border whilst the quarrantine and vaccination program is rubbish. Just dumb and citizens should be angry.

    • Many are. But if our two political parties were represented by sh!t sandwiches of different varieties, say horse and dog, the voters would still be force fed one of them. SM knows he only has to be the less offensive one (probably horse).

  8. +1 “It’s been another disgraceful display of no strategy and no targets.”

    And nothing learnt from Vic which conquered this twice through painful experience – entirely wasted on NSW

  9. robertcMEMBER

    Looking at article above it is a bit unfair to compare NSW’s current deaths to Victorias total figures(ie 1 to 800), should be compared to roughly the day 24 figure, which from the graph is a bit hard to make out maybe 3-5??

    The death figures appear to be lagging the other graphs by quite a bit, but they still look consistent with other measures between the two states. Guess they pretty much follow as a percent of total cases in the end when it is finally all over

  10. NSW is buggered. Apparently, the interstate migration is already happening. People packing there bags.

    • Could you please learn to differentiate between ‘there’ & ‘their’. Grade 3 stuff. I don’t read your comments, but if by mistake I do, your illiteracy immediately identifies you..