Shane Oliver of AMP Capital estimates that a three-week COVID-19 lockdown in Greater Sydney would cost about $3 billion in lost economic activity. Oliver notes that a further extension of the lockdown is now highly likely and economic activity could fall by around $7 billion if the lockdown were to be extended for another four weeks, as tipped by epidemiologists:
“If, as appears increasingly likely, the Sydney lockdown is extended much beyond the current three weeks it will progressively cause more damage,” he said. “For example, another four weeks will see the economic cost blow out to $7 billion and take longer to recover from.”
This would likely flatten September-quarter economic growth figures and, even with a strong post-lockdown rebound in December, would drag on central bank and federal government efforts to drive down unemployment…
