Consumer confidence brushes aside Sydney virus outbreak

The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose 2.0% to 110.0 points in the weekend of 11-12 July despite the worsening virus outbreak in Sydney and the extension of the city’s hard lockdown.

ANZ consumer confidence

Unexpected rebound.

The key movements in the sub-indices were as follows:

  • With Brisbane, Perth and Darwin emerging from their snap lockdowns, consumer confidence rebounded 2.0% despite the Sydney lockdown being extended for a third week.
  • All the subindices registered a gain. ‘Current financial conditions’ rose 0.4%, while ‘future financial conditions’ improved 2.0%.
  • ‘Current economic conditions’ gained 1.7%, while ‘future economic conditions’ increased by 3.7%.
  • ‘Time to buy a major household item’ rose 2.0%. ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ increased by 0.3ppt to 4.1%, pushing the four-week moving average up 0.1ppt to 4.1%.

Commenting on the result, ANZ Head of Australian Economics David Plank noted:

Consumer confidence rose 2.0% despite the announcement of a third week of lockdown in Sydney as daily COVID-19 cases jumped. The easing of criteria for the federal government’s AUD500 assistance payment may have helped, with Sydney itself recording a 3.7% rise in confidence after the plunge the prior week.

The emergence of Brisbane, Perth and Darwin from their lockdowns also added to the rebound. A comparison between Sydney and Melbourne (Figure 1) shows that even though there is a sharp decline in confidence in the particular city whenever a lockdown is imposed, sentiment tends to be similar in both cities and there was no great divergence even during Melbourne’s prolonged lockdown in 2020.

Consumer confidence

Full report here.

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