Brisbane property the winner from Sydney’s lockdown

I have been bullish on Brisbane property for some time.

The main reason is that Brisbane dwelling values are exceptional value in a relative sense when compared to its larger East-Coast counterparts, Sydney and Melbourne, as illustrated clearly below:

Brisbane house prices vs Sydney Brisbane house prices vs Melbourne

The other reason is that net internal migration into Brisbane has remained robust throughout the pandemic:

Net internal migration

Southerners are moving to Brisbane.

After Melbourne’s 14-week lockdown last year, tens-of-thousands of residents fled the city in search of greener pastures, including Brisbane.

Today, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced that it will extend Sydney’s lockdown for at least another month in a desperate bid to contain its COVID outbreak.

Logically, Sydney’s painful lockdown and its surging property market should drive a large number of residents to cash-in their chips and move north to Brisbane.

Throw the 2032 Olympics into the mix, and Brisbane dwelling values are set to converge somewhat with its bigger East-Coast cousins over the next decade.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. It goes beyond this current outbreak, perhaps?

    If Covid is here to stay, and if it remains the case it has some reasonably bad outcomes, even for vaccinated, or mutates, maybe some people are going to want to leave big cities…permanently…

  2. We live in bris and insane prices are being achieved in western burbs even average ones

  3. Wow! Anyone who bought Brisbane housing in 2003 and sold in 2008 would have made a fortune.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Well, 2001 to 2007/8 was the golden age of debt after all.
      It was all downhill after that.
      Still going down right now. Only stimulus induced CPI can save us now, there are no more interest rates left to cut.

    • BradleyMEMBER

      I doubled my dough in 3 years on Brisbane’s southside then. Now in northern NSW, where its doubled in the 5 years I’ve been here.
      It’s a joke because it’s just my house. Only one. Beat’s working!

  4. BradleyMEMBER

    Daughter is just about to list after 3 years and a small reno. Local auctions I attended point to a 50% capital gain minimum for her and she had a 30% deposit. Going to in laws sweet granny flat until buy land to build on. The vibrancy still seems to have the money and desire for $500k – $1m areas, not sure about the inner ring suburbs. Flooding in Brisbane and the eventual cyclone worries me but I don’t live there. In Mansfield, an ex war service home on a corner block, busy road is $900k – crazy.

  5. As a qlder this situation makes me sick ..
    Its not a nice feeling knowing that you can no longer afford to buy in your home town.its not very nice at all…very depressing.

    I’ve hear of multiple foreigners buying up ..

  6. Wife and I are moving to a coastal area an hour’s drive north of Brisbane.
    The property market in that area is going bonkers. People are buying houses (to live in themselves) sight unseen.
    Land prices have risen at least 50% in 4 years. Most of this rise has occurred since the start of 2020.