Brisbane property the winner from Sydney’s lockdown

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I have been bullish on Brisbane property for some time.

The main reason is that Brisbane dwelling values are exceptional value in a relative sense when compared to its larger East-Coast counterparts, Sydney and Melbourne, as illustrated clearly below:

Brisbane house prices vs Sydney Brisbane house prices vs Melbourne

The other reason is that net internal migration into Brisbane has remained robust throughout the pandemic:

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Net internal migration

Southerners are moving to Brisbane.

After Melbourne’s 14-week lockdown last year, tens-of-thousands of residents fled the city in search of greener pastures, including Brisbane.

Today, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced that it will extend Sydney’s lockdown for at least another month in a desperate bid to contain its COVID outbreak.

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Logically, Sydney’s painful lockdown and its surging property market should drive a large number of residents to cash-in their chips and move north to Brisbane.

Throw the 2032 Olympics into the mix, and Brisbane dwelling values are set to converge somewhat with its bigger East-Coast cousins over the next decade.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.