AUDUSD has resumed its downtrend and we maintain our core bearish outlook for .7209 and eventually .7085/43The brief consolidation in AUDUSD has come to an end for a break of key support from the 23.6% retracement of the uptrend from 2020 at .7418/09. With a major top in place we maintain our core bearish view with next minor support seen at .7379/72,then .7338 and then .7209–the 78.6% retracement of the rally from last November. Whilst we would look for this latter support to hold at first, below in due course should see support next at.7159/45 and eventually our core objective at .7085/43–the “measured top objective” and 38.2% retracement of the entire2020/2021 bull trend. Near-term resistance moves to .7418, with the immediate risk seen lower whilst below.7444. Above can see a recovery back to the 13-day exponential average and highs of last week at.7489/.7507, but with this expected to remain a solid cap. Support moves to .7338 next, then .7209 and eventually.7085/43. Resistance at .7504/07 ideally caps.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
