A new Roy Morgan poll has federal Labor’s two-party preferred lead increasing to 52.5% (up 2%) over the Coalition’s 47.5% (down 2%) following lockdowns imposed across Sydney, Victoria and South Australia:
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily elected with a substantial majority similar to that won at the 2007 Federal Election which the ALP won with 52.7% of the vote.
Interviewing for the latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of July 10/11 & 17/18, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,737 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode)…
Primary support for the L-NP dropped 2.5% points to 39% and is now just ahead of the ALP on 37% (up 2.5% points). Greens support was down 0.5% points to 11.5%.
Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 3% while support for Independents/Others has increased by 1% point to 9.5%…
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP now leading in five out of Australia’s six States on a two-party preferred basis and behind the LNP only in Queensland – a State the ALP hold only six seats out of 30.
The ALP leads strongly in Victoria on 56.5% (up 1.5% points since mid-June) compared to the L-NP on 43.5% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Victoria was plunged into an unprecedented fifth lockdown on Friday July 16 and the results here indicate Prime Minister Morrison and the L-NP Government is being held to account for this latest lockdown.
This result represents a swing of 3.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has also grabbed a narrow two-party preferred lead in NSW with the ALP on 50.5% (up 1.5% points since mid-June) cf. L-NP on 49.5% (down 1.5% points) and Western Australia with the ALP on 52.5% (up 4.5% points since mid-June) cf. L-NP on 47.5% (down 4.5% points).
The results for these two States represent significant swings to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election including a swing of 2.3% points in NSW and 8.1% points in Western Australia.
The L-NP has its strongest result In Queensland with the L-NP on 51.5% (down 4.5% points since mid-June) cf. ALP 48.5% (up 4.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. However, despite the LNP’s lead this represents a substantial swing of 6.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP holds a two-party preferred lead in the smaller States with the ALP 51% (up 1.5% points since mid-June) cf. L-NP 49% (down 1.5% points) in South Australia. This represents a swing of 0.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. In Tasmania the ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% – a swing of 2% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election…
Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the latest series of lockdowns which are being blamed on a slow vaccine roll-out have led to a significant drop in support for the L-NP Government with support back to where it was following Brittany Higgins’ allegations.
It seems Australians have grown tired of ‘Scotty from Marketing’s’ lack of leadership, accountability and spin.
The federal election must be held by May 2022. Therefore, Scott Morrison has only 8-9 months to right the ship and put the Coalition back into an election winning position. A lot will depend on whether NSW can quickly get a grip on its virus outbreak.