VIC lockdown extends ALP’s election lead

Victoria’s fourth hard lockdown has extended the Australian Labor Party’s two-party preferred poll lead, according to Roy Morgan.

During the Victorian lockdown in early June, support for the ALP is 51% on a two-party preferred basis, up 0.5% points since March 2021 and increasing their lead over the L-NP on 49% (down 0.5% points) despite a relatively well received Federal Budget.

Federal voting intentions

ALP ahead, but too close to call.

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That said, if a Federal Election were held today the result would be too close to call with a higher than usual 5.5% of electors undecided about who they would vote for – up from around 3-4% of electors normally – meaning Australia would face the real possibility of a hung parliament.

Primary support for the L-NP is now at 40% (down 1% point since March) compared to the ALP on 35.5% (up 1% point). Greens support has dropped by 1% point to 11.5%. One Nation’s primary support rose 0.5% points to 3%, whereas support for Independents/Others increased 0.5% points to 10%.

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP’s national two-party preferred lead is built upon a strong showing in Victoria with the ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% despite the State enduring its fourth lockdown. This result represents a swing of 0.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

In NSW the ALP also holds a narrow two-party preferred lead of ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% representing a swing of 2.3% points to the ALP in NSW since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP holds two-party preferred leads in the other mainland States (the biggest in Queensland); although its lead in these states has narrowed since the 2019 election.

Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 5pts from March 2021 to 113 and now at its lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic began just over a year ago.

Commenting on the results, Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine noted that if a Federal Election were held today the ALP would likely scrape over the line with the help of the minor parties:

“A worrying sign for the Government is that Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s high-spending Federal Budget in mid-May hasn’t provided a boost in support and the latest lockdown in Victoria is causing political problems for both the Victorian State Government as well as the Federal Government – which must go to an election before its counterparts in Victoria…

“There is plenty of blame to go around for the latest outbreak and lockdown in Melbourne with the hotel quarantine outbreak originating in South Australia. However, most scrutiny has rested with the Victorian Government’s handling of the outbreak and decision to lockdown the State and the Federal Government’s role in providing quarantine facilities and also delivering vaccination doses around the country”.

Most of the Victorian’s I speak to are equally unhappy about the Victorian and federal government’s incompetence in handling the pandemic. We are caught between dumb and dumber.

Unconventional Economist

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