Some interesting sector-level trends in US credit card spending. Services spending is normalising swiftly as reopening gathers pace. There are early signs that goods spending is falling away as well:
Eating out is now up on pre-pandemic levels. Travel is roaring back to almost unchanged from 2019. I expect a big overshoot ahead.
Interestingly, goods spending remains very high if showing early signs of falling as demand swings back to services. Home improvement is still off the chart but furnishing a starting to fray. This might be the property boom, running down savings or lingering stimulus cheques.
I still expect goods to fall away as services lift. In due course, this should help end the price pressures emnating from the global inventory supercycle.
I hope you’re enjoying Morrison’s Prison Island.