Macro Morning

By in Australian Dollar, Australian Shares

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See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

With the US inflation report out of the way, Friday night saw the go signs flash green on stock markets while the USD pounced back on no major news against the major currencies, although the latest US Michigan consumer sentiment survey surprised to the upside. Bond yields saw new lows with 10 year Treasuries again putting in a three month low while commodity prices were somewhat mixed as industrials lifted and gold was pulled back on the stronger USD.

It should be a solid start to Asian stock markets this week, with the ASX200 closed however, local traders will miss out on the action and play catchup on Tuesday.

Bitcoin is still dancing with the devil here with a rebound on Friday night taking it back up through the $37K level but nowhere near out of harms way following a big gap down during the week.  The daily chart still shows a series of resistance levels – or steps on the way down – but also a contrary bullish falling wedge pattern that might spark some upside if price breaks above the high moving average level at least above $38K:

Looking at share markets in Asia from Friday’s session, where the Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% lower to retrace once again below the 3600 point level while the Hang Seng Index lifted 0.4% to close at 28842 points. Price action is still showing an inability to decisively clear resistance at the 29000 point level keeping this market contained but support is building at the 28500 point level with no new substantive daily lows as momentum remains positive. Not yet time to abandon and sell up just yet:

Japanese stocks were in hesitation mode yet again as Yen becomes stronger, with the Nikkei 225 closing with a scratch session at 28948 points. Daily futures are pointing to a breakout above 29000 points on the rise on Wall Street but that downtrend line on the daily chart must be breached decisively, possibly helped as Yen depreciates against USD. Watch for the low moving average to be supported here as well for a sign of more bullish intent:

Australian stocks capped off a solid week with the ASX200 closing 0.1% higher and remaining above the 7300 point level at 7312 with SPI futures up nearly 50 points or over 0.6% indicating a very solid start for tomorrow’s session. Can’t stop the music here:

European markets were finally boisterous and lifted across the continent with the German DAX representative of the lost, gaining nearly 0.8% to close at 15693 points. The daily chart has been nominally positive for sometime now, but momentum readings were wobbly but this new breakout should imbibe more buying spirits going forward, particularly with a much lower Euro:

Wall Street is moving higher in a co-ordinated fashion although relative to European issues, the moves were a bit more subdued with the S&P500 up 0.2% to finish at 4247 points, still making a new record high. Price action on the daily chart clearly shows a steady if tentative uptrend here from the early May dips but its squeezing it out only just with momentum barely overbought and nothing like a substantive rally. Have we come to the end of exhaustion buying yet?

Currency markets were whalloped for nearly no reason with USD firming against almost everything after a fairly steady week. The Euro had been roundtripping around the 1.21 mid level but decisively broke below trailing ATR support on Friday night to the 1.21 handle proper and made a new weekly low. The four hourly chart was presaging such a move, but this is well overdone with momentum extremely oversold so expect a small bounce later tonight before the real trend reveals itself:

The USDJPY pair again tried to breakout and made a little headway before hitting resistance again, finishing the week on a nominal high and with momentum nicely overbought to support more Yen selling in this trading week. Not as strong as Euro/Pound selling so there is potential here for hedging if going all in on USD strength:

The Australian dollar just can’t catch a break with the mid week liftoff aborted sharply on Friday night sending it down to the 77 handle exactly. Again, resistance at the 77.70 level and the dominant downtrend remains too hard to clear and has been a great boon for swing traders on the Aussie! While momentum is extremely oversold we could see more downside here and a possible return to the previous weekly lows around the mid 76 level:

Oil prices continue to edge higher despite a weak or strong USD with Brent crude pushed slightly further above the $72USD per barrel level for a new daily and weekly high. The potential for a run up to the 2018 high at $83 or so continues to build here with the low moving average never under threat:

Gold was looking better but not great following the transitory inflation print but just can’t break through that $1900USD per ounce barrier and was sold off sharply on Friday night to finish the week at the $1877USD level. Trailing daily ATR support at the $1850 level is the key level to watch in the short and medium term as we require another solid session to breakout above the high moving average soon:

 

 

Glossary of Acronyms and Technical Analysis Terms:

ATR: Average True Range – measures the degree of price volatility averaged over a time period

ATR Support/Resistance: a ratcheting mechanism that follows price below/above a trend, that if breached shows above average volatility

CCI:  Commodity Channel Index: a momentum reading that calculates current price away from the statistical mean or “typical” price to indicate overbought (far above the mean) or oversold (far below the mean)

Low/High Moving Average: rolling mean of prices in this case, the low and high for the day/hour which creates a band around the actual price movement

FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee, monthly meeting of Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy (setting interest rates)

DOE: US Department of Energy 

Uncle Point: or stop loss point, a level at which you’ve clearly been wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out!

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Comments

  1. MathiasMEMBER

    News.com.au runs multiple newspapers all across Australia.

    They run multiple variations of media ( Print, Television, Radio ).

    They also run side business’s like a Real Estate Hub which they bring into there main media offerings to sway public opinion.

    They are also not Australian.

    Maybe its time to break them up?

    If anyone wants to make a complaint about these guys, you can find the website here… Australian Competition and Consumer Commission… https://www.accc.gov.au/contact-us/contact-the-accc/report-a-consumer-issue

    As expected they’ll do absolutely nothing but it’ll be just further proof that Australia is not run for its Democracy

    We all know why… because its run by Baby Boomers feathering there own nest.

    • Michael Jubb

      that’s messed up. you’d hope the Streisand effect would turn this into an outrage – but Sydney media is too compliant and population too property obsessed. First home buyers grant For eveyone!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      That fixated person unit. Weren’t they used against a whistleblower telling the world about the shenanigans in a big mining company? Can’t remember or find anything but their only job seemed to be to destroy any road bump in the way of dodgy dealings.

      Edit: hey, this from the Guardian quoting the police

      “…the victim to be constantly anxious and in fear of his and his families.”

      His families? They saying Bruz is mafia? Now the police are getting in on the act.

    • GeordieMEMBER

      As much as I dislike how blind Jordie is to any criticism of the ALP and it’s policies and backing, he does do a good job of making a noise when stuff is genuinely f’d up. If this is the sort of legal battle that is being thrust upon him and his business, then it’s clear that he’s definitely causing severe pain to those who should be feeling the heat. Luckily living in a police state protects us all equally, amiright?!?

      • MathiasMEMBER

        He’s a minority. When have you ever seen a Baby Boomers voice ever end up silenced?

        The Boomers destroying Australia right before our eyes and we are witnessing just how aggressive the silencing and vindication is becoming.

        House Prices is Young Death. Its also the end of Australia.

        There will be no future in this country after the Boomers are gone. Nobodys got the guts to stand against them.

        In the end, I think an Economic Collapse is the only way this gets solved. The Boomers need to face there reality the hard way.

        Australia needs to protect its young, before the Boomers kill them.

        • The Claw

          The Boomers destroying Australia right before our eyes and we are witnessing just how aggressive the silencing and vindication is becoming.

          Is Bruz a boomer?

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Barilaro
          Giovanni Domenic “John” Barilaro (born 14 November 1971) is an Australian politician who has been the 18th Deputy Premier of New South Wales and the New South Wales Leader of The Nationals since November 2016.

    • dodgy as

      Wow! just how F’ed up is that
      So if I understand this Public figures are now not “Public Figures”
      How can a journalist be arrested for “stalking” a Public Figure? that’s beyond laughable
      I don’t know about all the corruption claims against John B, but one thing is certain Australian Journalists have the right (better still the obligation) to pursue such matters.
      IF all politicians can now just define an Investigative Journalist as a stalker then there will be no one to hold the corrupt to account. To be truthful, this should worry honest politicians a lot more than it pleases corrupt Politicians .
      The public will tar all politicians with the same brush, if there is no way to tell the honest from the corrupt.

      • GavinMEMBER

        I cannot see how any of this will stand up in court. None. But then again Australia is becoming seemingly more corrupt by the day.

        • dodgy as

          That’s for sure.
          If this even survives the first court appearance then it spells the end of any concept of free speech in Australia.
          I can understand that some judge got duped into issuing an arrest warrant lots of important people complaining etc but the next stage is truly precedent setting.
          For me the whole concept of investigative journalism and its close cousin Political accountability rest on this case getting literally laughed out of court.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Is it possible that #stupidfatidiot has realised he’s overreaching with the defamation case and has gone the nuclear anti-terrorism option out of panic of future embarrassment?

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          I cannot see how any of this will stand up in court.

          Doesn’t have to. THe point is the threat.

    • delta-strain

      Fixated Persons Unit! Looks like John’s the fixated one.

      Waa Waa, mummy, that person is teasing me. This should score Barrelyouareso a lifetime of ridicule, but seeing the times we live in, I bet no one picks it up and goes further. No one in the NLP says to him, hey John, don’t worry about the uni kids teasing you, you’re in politics? Kristo wasn’t even teasing him.

      • dodgy as

        Yep Politically, he is definitely scoring an own goal.
        lot of mileage for his next opponent about what a gutless wonder our deputy premier actually is
        waa waa mummy I was cyber bullied by a 21 year old uni student ffs …
        Take teaspoon of Cement and harden the F up!

    • skippy

      Bill Black is giving a nine part series of interviews by Paul Jay on theanalysis news. The story actually goes back to the S&L crisis of the 1980s. Every president from George HW Bush to Obama is culpable. Bill Clinton’s administration was particularly damning. Obama no better. This is a fascinating story of financial fraud and criminality allied with the gutting of regulatory oversight. Felonies were committed yet the criminals were rewarded rather than punished. Government corruption was a necessary ingredient. While the Fed had the power to stop the fraudulent activity, The appointment of Ayn Rand libertarian Allen Greenspan as Fed Chairman by Clinton followed by the appointment of ultraconservative Ben Bernanke as well as Tim Geithner by Obama assured that the powers of the Fed would not be exercised and the scam would continue until meltdown. The whole story is complex and Bill Black details it beautifully. Highly recommended! https://theanalysis.news/ Look for Bill Black, The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One. As of now there are 4 parts of a nine part series posted.

      Wash it down with Super Bug – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzB1Vc1h-Tc

  7. rustyMEMBER

    Did anyone see Biden on the weekend? There were rumours following festivities on Friday (meetings not much else) that everything was delayed for an hour and a half the following morning because they couldn’t get Biden out of bed and operating!!!

    Then yesterday, check out this, the guy can barely walk after sitting down! Makes the Queen look a picture of heath. BBC don’t show it, but he struggled just walking up a couple of steps after hoping out of the Rangie (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYuyW2Gcaso), nearly tripped, his hand held by his wife. He looked a lot better walking among the honour guard, but man, the guy is ageing quickly.

    I wonder how long… he will struggle to last another three and a half years. And forget about re-contesting the next election!

      • rustyMEMBER

        When I mentioned the above, my sister wrote this …Sleepy Joe could not even successfully manage his own running campaign and was sleeping when Obama introduced him on the platform – they had to call for him 3 times before he woke up and stumbled on stage, then had to run off again and get his mask which he forgot … of course the “woke” media (CNN, MSNBC, etc) covered all that up.
        The guy is unfit to run ( why do you think Putin requested a live face to face debate with him) and everyone is aware of it especially Harris who is counting the days with a barely disguised smirk……

    • GavinMEMBER

      What worries me is that Kamala Harris is next in line..that’s gonna be funny .. I can see Trump making a 2024 comeback..

      • MathiasMEMBER

        What about them?

        The Boomers are voting for all this stuff. We have a Liberal Party in power, jacking up house prices because Boomers thinks its ‘Great Mate’.

        We dont mind migrating in the Chinese, causing Australian National Security Issues, Selling Drugs, Buttloads of Corruption ( which the Boomers are into themselves ) and causing all manner of disasters… because the boomers like this stuff.

        Also, who runs most of these insititutions. The Boomers in Politics, the Boomers in our Universities, the Boomers in our Corporations. All the Real Estate Agents and Property Developers are all the Old Boomers. Have you noticed everywhere Boomers seem to go, Corruption seems to follow? Its almost like they are old, dont give a rats about the future ( they’ll be dead anyway ), just want the cash today at any expense and dont care who or what they destroy in the way.

        Migrants are a huge source of corruption as well but who’s bringing them here? Oh yeah… Boomers who want a quick buck.

        Sorry bud. You might have to be more specific about your question. I dont get what your question is?

        If your one of those clever individuals who thinks ‘Playing Chicken’ with Young Lives, suciding young Australians off and that migrants are enough to take over Australias Future, then I laugh at you. Look at all the problems we have in Australia today due to Migration. Firstly, they have no respect for Country. They are just here for the money and when that money disappears, you’ll see a lot of migrants disappear. Secondly, its a huge source of crime, living standard erosion and all kinds of stuff going wrong in Australia.

        You dont care about Australia. You just care about yourself and what happens to you. Therein lies the problem and that also, is the very reason Economic Crashes happen in Australia.

        Lets call this what it is. You want to MURDER Australias Young and replace them with Migrants to line your own back pocket. Dont hide behind lies, politics or face masks. Call it what it is. If your going to murder Young Australians, then at least have the common decency to call it what it is and stop pretending to the rest of us that its anything else but.

      • MathiasMEMBER

        I realise your a ‘Expert’ with only a Grade 5 education but let me make this simple for you.

        Over the next 18 years, the PENSION you where promised, is probably never going to get paid.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OFaZcC0lRU

        Its a game of Poker. You Bluff… I Call. Everything you say and believe is absolute bullsh*t because anyone with half a brain knows there are too many Boomers on a Pension over the next 18 years that the young will be incapable of paying it down.

        Its not a question of ‘ The young just need to work harder ‘, the Math doesnt even add up. Its nowhere even close. No matter how much you whinge and complain, beat the young with a stick and pretend your clever, ITS NOT GETTING PAID.

        So either a) We Murder off the Young and Australias Future is Dead … or b) We Murder off the Boomers and reduce the Pension Liablity.

        Apparently, we want to murder off Australia because the Boomers have decided, this is whats best for them. The Boomers who outnumber the Young, are going to fight to protect there Pension to hell or highwater, and the Mob we call Australia is eventually going to get dragged over a cliff.

        Boomers are fighting to keep there pension ( and landlord rents ) in a society where that cash has to run out someday. Its just basic math.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      What’s with the censorship.?…these were harmless exchanges …exploring differing views …

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        TT
        Mathias hates getting pushed around by boomers as per second comment above on this post.

        • MathiasMEMBER

          Im sick of attending funerals from Boomers who keep pretending they arent responsible.

          A lot of young kids in Australia where too young to die.

          Boomers want to argue this with me. I find it unbelievable.

          • GingerMEMBER

            In summary:
            Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! gone – migrants
            House prices – boomers/migrants
            Media – boomers
            Male suicide – women
            I can’t get laid – women

            Is this accurate Mathias?

          • MathiasMEMBER

            > In summary:
            > Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! gone – migrants

            yep

            > House prices – boomers/migrants

            yep

            > Media – boomers

            yep… and Americans. I feel America has interfered in Australias Democracy these past 50 years as well.

            >Male suicide – women

            Unfortunately, yes.

            > I can’t get laid – women

            Now your just being cheeky.

            >Is this accurate Mathias?

            Yeah. I see whats coming for Australias Future.

            There is a large acreage near me and I’ve noticed it has over 8 caravans parked in it, with people living in it heh. I dont say anything. Im not a dobber. Not my business. I let people live there own lives. I only bully the bullies.

            I think if my mates where alive today, then yeah… its what they’d have me do. They loved Australia. It killed them in the end.

            If you ever go for a walk through a rainforest someday, the first thing you’ll come to realise is ‘Life isnt that complicated’. We are doing this to ourselves. Its PEOPLE who make life complicated. We are doing this to ourselves because nature is nowhere near as cruel. We have become a self-destructive society and its pretty clear to see whats going on here.

          • MathiasMEMBER

            Pensions are too high in Australia. They need to come down.

            Boomers need to start taking responsibility for there own problems and stop shifting it onto others.

            Woman need to stop being whining whores. I take sympathy in the fact its not easy to be a woman. Woman, as well as Men, have a right to dignity as much as any other living creature on this earth. The problem with woman is they just dont have anything to offer and the more desperate we become in locking down marriage laws, the worse it makes womans lives. Men just see you as having even less. Woman want to sit at the table and be included with the men. I get that but you have to convince men to want to have something to do with you. As it exists, Australian Woman are nothing more then a pain in the a$$ which is why most of the mates I know ( despite having every opportunity ) have chosen to be single.

            A lot of my mates are single by choice. I cant speak for them but I can speak for myself. I’ve been in both long term relationships and been single. I like being single more. I like being in control of my own life. Doing things when I want and when I want. I dont like being made responsible for other peoples problems and aside from the obvious, I really dont know what woman really offer. They are a dependent which makes them really annoying. A dog is cheaper and less hassles.

            Yes, you can argue, ” Married couples are stronger as they work together as a team. A woman is there for you during the hard times. ” and blah blah blah. You can say this stuff but it doesnt happen in reality. Australian Divorce Rates show womans personality as clear as day. They latch onto something they need and divorce when they dont. Woman arent loyal to anything but themselves and majority of Australian Woman cant even keep a marriage down. Mates are better. They have no agenda and are lot more loyal.

            The problem with Feminism as I see it isnt Female Empowerment but a question of making woman relevant. Woman are nothing more then annoying dependents. The government doesnt want to pay for you and men dont want to pay for you. Its not a question of forced empowerment of de facto laws that force men into marriages they never consented to. Woman are just a burden on society and until feminism deals with that, men will always see you as such.

            There needs to be a reason to invest in a relationship. Men get nothing out of woman except problems and burdens. Aside from the bleating obvious ( thinking with the other brain ), what possible reason do men have to even invest in such a relationship when it does nothing but make there lives more miserable? Men are better to cut the relationship and get on with enjoying there life.

            Woman need to become relevant. If they arent offering anything to men, then whats the point of them? Feminism wont help with that. It’ll just make men hate you even more.

            Honestly, if sex didnt exist, I dont think any man would ever marry a woman. Whats the point? What does it do to make a mans life happy? What do woman actually offer? Until those questions are answered, woman are pretty useless in my book.

        • MathiasMEMBER

          The young have a responsibility in Australia… ” To Live there Life “.

          The Boomers are trying to make everyone else responsible for problems which arent our own. Sure, everyone should pay a bit of Tax in this Country but we no longer talk about Tax, we are talking about murdering off Australians Young with phenomenal costs that go above and beyond anything which is even remotely reasonable. Tax used to be something like 10% but now its like 50-70% when you add it up on all the things we are being taxed for. We are now talking about the young paying off debts for the rest of there life which is in no way even close to being reasonable.

          I will not be taking on Boomers Problems and I will not be taking on Womans Problems. My objective when I wake up tommorrow morning, is to ” Live my Life ” Independently as each and every individual is responsible for, themselves. To live life, to love life and to maximise what I get out of this life… for me. My life. My rules and I dont give a damn what some whiney Boomer or Woman has to say.

          You want a Pension then go spend your Savings? If woman want kids then go do IVF. None of this has anything to do with me. You want to talk, then lets talk… but you want to thrust your problems onto me, then expect you’ll be like water off a ducks back as I shake you off me.

          If the Boomers have a problem that pensions arent being paid or woman are having a problem that men no longer want to marry them, then we need to rethink whats going on here. Dont tell me Im wierd because Australias Interest Rates havent fallen to the lowest level in history for no reason… and Australian Fertility Rates arent collapsing for no reason. They are falling because house prices are too high and men no longer want to marry. The Data doesnt lie, even after the governments thrown cash onto everything to improve it. I reckon you’ll find my attitude more common then you think. Not to mention, the history of Female Drug Usage and Stress rising in society is rising for a reason ( wonder why? ).

          I sympathise that its hard for a Boomer to have no Pension in life. I sympathise that its hard for Woman to grow up in a society where men no longer want to have anything to do with them. Im really sorry for all this but ITS NOT MY PROBLEM. My life is my problem.

          I have the POWER.
          All I have to do, is say, ” NO “.
          When I do, your game is over.

          In the end, its my life and my choice. I choose to live my life according to my values, my rules and support the things that I value. Im not doing it to impress anybody. Im doing it to impress the most important person in my world, ME. I embrace the things which are good and I dissociate myself to anything thats bad. Its simple logic really. I only INVEST in things which I feel are worthy of value.

          When the tide of money rolls out in Australia in a few years and everyone in Australia is left high and dry, its unsurprising that in a few years, Boomers and Woman will be whining about Pensions and being Single. Australian Society is going to change. For starters, people will have no money. People will protect what money they have left. Trust is going to break down in Australia. Men like me who Australia calls insane, will be more independent then most of those do nothing but consistently lie in a world that is no longer sustainable. Its not going to last.

          The Government will probably do anything in its power to protect itself and cover its own a$$ ( as governments always do ). It’ll stick the knife in society and divide whatever social demographic they choose to uphold there own power while watching Governmental Power Receed. Maybe they’ll put Boomers against the Young ( Liberals ) or Men against Woman ( Labor ) but it all comes down to the fact they want Power and Money, and those options keep getting smaller by the day.

          I invest in my MATES because they will be there for me. When Im down and in the gutter, my MATES will be there. Unlike the Boomers or the Woman who Data shows divorce you the first chance they get, my MATES will be the first ones to show up and say, ” Lets get this sorted “. Thats why I invest in them.

          You may say, but thats Tribalism? Sure… but guess what, I hate to break it to you, Australia is a Tribalist Country. We’ve had 24 Liberal Elections to 12 Labor. We’ve got a Baby Boomer cohort that wants to destroy society, a society of greed and a Government who’s losing everything it owns and trying to hold onto Property as its last and only means of control.

          Australians are meant to be stupid. When the Liberals twist the knife to divide society, we are all supposed to abuse each other, become hard working citizens, pay down all the pensions and marry all the wifes. Unfortunately, Im not stupid. I know where the threats coming from which is why I choose to use my ENERGY against the people responsible for that threat, aka… the Liberal Government. I focus and target my energy towards the very people who I see destroying Australian ‘Quality of Life’ and frankly, it doesnt take a genius to see who’s responsible. My job is to attack the Government, the Boomers and pretty much everyone destroying ‘Quality of Life’… as it will be till Im buried in some cemetary.

          Australia has no plan. Its just a bunch of whiney [email protected] looking for the easiest target and whatevers closest will do. The young are an easy target so the Boomers stomp all over them for free cash. Woman have manipulated our legal system so now they can persecute Men Financially anytime they like. There is no plan. Its just a bunch of bullys, getting what they want and a Government who doesnt care one way or another as long as they get paid this week. If thats not Tribalist, then I dont know what is.

    • MathiasMEMBER

      Australia has always had a tradition of ‘ Mateship ‘.

      There are situations where this serves you well. In a war for instance. Being there for your mates is a great thing.

      However, there are also situations where that becomes very bad. As I understand it, Favouritism is the first step towards Corruption. The moment we have insiders putting mates first, we are basically taking our first steps down a path of corruption. The Boomers are notorious at playing favourites which is why Australias turning into a massive ball of corruption. Its cultural.

      Cameron Murray does a better job of explaining it in his book ‘Game of Mates’ – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q35bx20A0dQ

      The Boomers are naturally corrupt and you could of predicted this turn in Australian Society many years ago.