Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are finishing the week in mixed fashion yet again, echoing similar moves on Wall Street as seismic shift in Federal Reserve intentions continues to resonate throughout risk markets. Gold is struggling again going into the London session, currently just above the $1783USD per ounce level after being dumped below the $1800 level overnight while Bitcoin is slowly deflating as it heads back to last week’s high, wiping out all the gains of this week:

The Shanghai Composite has stalled yet again, finishing just a handful of points lower at 3524 points, while the Hang Seng Index zoomed higher, up 0.7% to close at 28766 points. Japanese stocks have continued their pullback with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.2% lower at 28964 points as the USDJPY pair remains just above the 110 handle and almost back to its start of week levels after a big retracement overnight:

Australian stocks had a tepid finish to the end of the week with the ASX200 closing only 0.2% higher at 7368 points while the Australian dollar just keeps on selling off, heading down to the 75 handle after commodity prices fell overnight:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are flat lining going in the London open with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing momentum still on the negative side and price action looking tenuous at best with more downside still possible as risk markets reset:

The economic calendar finishes the week with UK retail sales and a private oil rig count in the US.

Have a good weekend and stay safe!

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Comments

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      The disappear argument is wrong as I know none of the steel and polymer suppliers will put their prices back to what they were 30-60% ago lol not gunna happen
      It’s mostly here to stay and really it’s been a long time coming it’s like no inflation for 15 years and then all at once

    • All manner of supply and logistical issues due to covid with the sticky price noted … for a real good time supply side will view things as a demand signal to expand/grow and then reality will smack them upside the head down the road after the covid dust settles ….

      I guess its sorta like China expanding its HG Iron ore works in Africa.

    • Deflation baked in. Agree with skippy, only selected industry production and transient at that. Meanwhile, now is the time to enjoy the $1 salted smashed avocados on toast.

    • Well, question, for all here, are you padding out your deep pantry? Securing some food security? If not…Why not?

  1. Banana ManMEMBER

    Ah. Happy to be sitting on a plane to Queensland full of extremely good looking olympians. Not sure if they can’t risk any chances or they have inside info. Anyway, easy on the eyes. Have a great weekend everyone. Chateau grand desir is my recommendation if anyone is in dans and likes an inexpensive Bordeaux in the international section

  2. Re: FriendlyJordies.

    Apparently, there is also a warrant for Jordan’s arrest which was issued a few weeks ago prior to Kristo’s arrest but the police aren’t going to execute it.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/o11c48/mark_davis_arrest_warrant_exists_for_jordan_shanks/).

    That would explain why he was so quiet on YouTube the last few weeks prior to Kristo being carted off by the Gestapo – imagine being told as a journalist that the ‘Fixated Persons Unit’ of the Counter Terrorism Command is holding an arrest warrant on you, but they’re not going to execute it juuuust yet.

    How bad could the offence possibly be if they’re not in any rush to arrest you – unless of course it was, oh, I don’t know – intimidation of a respondent in a civil defamation suit?

    This is some seriously grubby stuff.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      It’s straight up fascism and any fken cnt out there who doesn’t oppose it,…is a fken fascist to.
      An enemy of Democracy.

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        I oppose that sick commie Jordies bloke and his Labor faction antics! His scum employee was fixated on a good Liberal Nationalist and fairly got taken out by the talented fixated persons special forces unit. I don’t see a problem here at all. Needed to happen. Commies must be purged. We all know it.

      • Hi young Plumber, do you have any form or website we could express our outrage, or express an opinion, or support the young lads rights? More than happy to throw some $ in support or growl at a Pollie

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Reckon the judge giving him a suspended sentence after the poor sod pleaded guilty was a message to the aforementioned crooked c#nts that they are indeed crooked c#nts.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          It was a message that said we’ll do a deal so that we don’t have to look as inept as the ex AG when we loose and you get off without a conviction (10 years from now).

          • More likely the message was to someone similarly charged and present during most open court sessions and for the sentencing, ie., Witness K’s solicitor, Bernard Collaery. Watch Mr Collaery fight on and beat the corrupt weak bastards. Then we’ll see the books and the movies – “Downer Goes Down”, “Downer in Stockings in the Stocks”, “Blowing the Whistle on Downer” – also the unauthorised biographies and biopics, eg., “What a Downer” &etc.

          • “Downer Took On All Comers”, “Blowing the Whistle on Downer”, “Gagging Downer Tried to Swallow the Lot”

          • Message about that Alexander fellah….Went over to W.A, and the son paid for the Missus and I, for the front seats.Noticed that fellah sit behind us..quaffed quite a few of these “G & T’s”…..never went the toilet….the whole 3 1/2 hrs….started to smell a bit squiffy behind us…bloody hell…..true story….never understood why…still shaking my head , and this is the bloody polity?

          • https://insidestory.org.au/bernard-collaerys-bombshell/

            Bernard Collaery’s bombshell
            Neither Australia nor Timor-Leste is benefiting from a resource whose value seems greater than the petroleum gas that carries it

            Helium is mostly recovered from flows of natural gas, and the Bayu-Undan field in the Timor Sea had more than enough to justify extraction. ConocoPhillips, the operators of that field, got it for free, and sent it via pipeline to a liquified natural gas plant in Darwin. The US oil major then sold the helium fraction to BOC Australia, owned by the multinational industrial gases group Linde, which opened a plant next door to the Darwin LNG terminal in 2010.

            By 2015, according to Collaery, the annual output of the plant, which cost perhaps $50 million to build, was an estimated 200 million standard cubic feet. At prevailing prices, that’s $2 billion in revenue per year. When I enquired, BOC Australia refused to comment on these claims, saying it cannot reveal confidential information about agreements with suppliers or customers.

            As Collaery’s account stands, both the Australian and Timor-Leste governments have neglected to obtain any revenue benefits for their people from a resource whose value seems to be greater than the petroleum gas in which it has been hidden. The same will go for the much larger Greater Sunrise field unless its production-sharing agreement with the Woodside Petroleum consortium is modified.

            Timor-Leste’s negotiators, initially led by then prime minister Mari Alkatiri, were advised by a Norwegian expert to add the words “and inerts” to the Bayu-Undan and Greater Sunrise contracts, but did not pursue the point. They were bound by a statement — signed by Alkatiri, Xanana Gusmão and José Ramos-Horta — that the holders of contracts signed under the Indonesian–Australian regime would continue to enjoy the same rights under an independent Timor-Leste on terms that were “no more onerous.”

            The statement was drafted and signed in September 1999 at a meeting in Darwin with officials from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and Phillips Petroleum, later ConocoPhillips. Australian-led peacekeepers had barely begun securing East Timor from the rampaging of departing Indonesian troops and militias, and the Timorese had no legal advisers with them.

          • How much does that work out to be in Australia’s share of helium royalty revenue alone that Downer and Co have deprived Australia of? Is it some 40% share of royalties that should be due each year on $2billion and growing worth of helium for some several future decades? Could probably buy a few shots of some covid vaccine for that, and build a good number of proper quarantine facilities at least, and still have plenty left over for a fair dinkum LNP p!ss up.

    • Could you figure out the exact nature of his accusation? I read the statements and have no idea exactly what he believes his happening.

  3. AAMI trying to add 18% increase to car insurance, pass, although we slugged our SME customers with 11% this year, and brought it forward a month, common practice in any industry these days?

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      I was talking about this to someone the other day. I bought my car new in 2014 and had it insured (agreed value) for it’s full purchase price. Seven years later and, despite the agreed value halving due to depreciation, I’m still paying the exact same premium. What gives?

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        It’s called the Lazy Tax. Requote with any other provider based on current replacement value or current insured val if that’s higher.

    • The Travelling Phantom

      So inflation forces are acting! Makes you wonder if the subscription to this website will go up too,
      I’m thinking to get one when I finish saving the required amount. I only have a deposit now

    • The Travelling Phantom

      Thank you very very much
      Great article and worth a read.
      What will happen in Oz you reckon?

  4. New Zealand’s housing hell … compared …

    … Please do comment on this important Stuff article thread …

    Here’s what Auckland’s median house price can buy around the world … Miriam Bell … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125475682/heres-what-aucklands-median-house-price-can-buy-around-the-world

    Auckland’s median house price has hit $1.14 million.

    For that price, you could get a good quality city-fringe apartment, or maybe a standard house in an outer suburb.

    But if you were to take that $1m and spend it in another country, you could be surprised at what it buys you.

    Earlier this year, the Demographia international housing affordability report ranked Auckland as the fourth least affordable housing market in the world. We looked at how the Auckland median compares. … read more via hyperlink above …

    2021 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

    http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

    Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: All Earlier Editions

    http://www.performanceurbanplanning.org/db-dhi-index.htm

    What lessons are being learnt from this ? …

    25 year old Dallas school teacher on $US 58,400 a year buying her first home early last year for $US 155.000 … 2.66 times her annual SINGLE EARNER household income …

    How a 25-year-old teacher making $58,000 in Dallas spends her money … VIDEO . CNBC

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/12/17/58k-a-year-dallas-millennial-money-lani-huang.html

    … and too … the important recently released Knight Frank and Bloomberg Global Housing Reports.

    • Update …

      … Perspective from the Sydney Morning Herald’s political and international editor Peter Hatcher this morning …

      … What is needed is a housing median multiple survey of all the Australian and New Zealand metros, to illustrate how the Australian smaller and regional centres are, in relative terms, generally more affordable …

      Australian nightmare looms even as Frydenberg prepares his election pitch OPINION … Peter Hatcher … Sydney Morning Herald
      … h/t PM …

      https://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-nightmare-looms-even-as-frydenberg-prepares-his-election-pitch-20210618-p582ce.html

      … extract …

      … Still, we’re going to go to election day hearing Frydenberg tell us that everything is perfect, yet improving.

      But look at the other economic news this week. Home ownership is now out of reach for Australians under the age of 35, according to a new report from the University of NSW City Futures Research Centre. Seventy per cent of all housing wealth in Australia is now concentrated in the hands of the over 65s.

      The rise in house prices in the biggest cities is simply ridiculous. Take the price of the median Melbourne house. It hit $908,000 last month, according to CoreLogic data. To reach that level, it increased by almost $800 each day, every day, of the year to date.

      Or Sydney. The price of the median Sydney house reached $1.186 million last month. Which represented a daily price rise of $1220 for every day of the year to that point.

      So if you were aged 21 to 35, and earning the national average income for people in your age group – $58,635 a year – the price of a Sydney house was rising every day by an amount equal to one week’s wages. The message to average Australians is to despair of being able to do what your parents very likely did – buy a home.

      What a brilliant national achievement. We’ve priced the next generation out of the ability to buy a home. We have only 26 million people inhabiting an entire continent but cannot supply affordable housing in our major cities.

      It’s pretty crazy in many parts of the rich world at the moment because interest rates everywhere are so low, but there’s only one city in one country where the price surge is crazier this year – Vancouver, Canada, according to CoreLogic.

      And besides, this acceleration is just the latest in a long-running national failure. “Historically, housing affordability had been similar between nations until a few decades ago,” says the 2021 Demographia survey of international house prices. … read more via hyperlink above …

  5. Container Freight Trends …

    “To The Moon”: Rise In Trans-Pacific Spot Rates Is Relentless – And Accelerating … Greg Miller of Freightwaves / Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/moon-rise-trans-pacific-spot-rates-relentless-and-accelerating

    The trajectory of trans-Pacific spot rates brings to mind the catchphrase “to the moon.” … read more via hyperlink above …

    Subsidies and government-run shipping line should be on the table – shipping expert … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125473750/subsidies-and-governmentrun-shipping-line-should-be-on-the-table–shipping-expert