Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Bitcoin to end privacy

A sea of red across stock market here in Asia following a mixed mood overnight with hesitation possibly turning to fear across the risk complex as the US inflation print looms tomorrow night. The USD remains in a weakish state as Euro and Pound Sterling start to firm going into the London session, although gold is still unable to climb back above the $1900USD per ounce level.ย  Bitcoin is either putting in a possible bottom here or just waiting to selloff sharply again as margin calls start to really bite as price was pushed down towards the $30K level overnight. Its consolidating here at the post-rally $33K level as a classic swing play setup – which could be mistaken for a bottom – builds:

The Shanghai Composite is the standout, rising a little over 0.3% going into close at 3591 points, while the Hang Seng Index is falling back alongside everything else, down 0.2% to 28714 points.ย  Japanese stocks continue to struggle with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.3% lower at 28860 as the USDJPY pair tightens around the 109.50 midzone with very low volatility that should spell trouble ahead. As momentum wanes watch for a breakout either side of the tight moving average band:

The ASX200 finally lost some ground, falling some 0.3% to close at 7270 points in the wake of a declining consumer confidence print, as the once-resurgent Australian dollar still can’t get past its previous weekly highs that are acting as resistance alongside the medium term downtrend from the start of the year, declining into the 77.40 zone:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are sliding down going in the London open with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 still elevated and really wanting to advance past the previous record high, but there seems to be an anchor here at the 4230 area with momentum no longer overbought and ready to invert:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet tonight with German trade balance and US mortgage applications the only major prints of note.

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Comments

  1. MathiasMEMBER

    I’ve had a really boring week… its only just started to get interesting for me ๐Ÿ™‚

    > A sea of red across stock market here in Asia following a mixed mood overnight with hesitation possibly turning to fear

    Why does everything thats bad for boomers always end up being really good for me ๐Ÿ™‚

    Patience sucks… but I love that I have a 100% forex win/ratio for the month.

    • MathiasMEMBER

      Yeah… but most of it was in NSW. Nobody cares about NSW.

      If NSW died, the only thing people would say is, ” Thank God. Less Drama and Less Bullying for the rest of us. “.

      Those Covid spreaders should setup a GoFundMe account everytime they go through NSW, so we can all make a generous donation for there… err… holiday ๐Ÿ™‚

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          I’m annoyed because that was the drive I was going to be doing this week. Quite like a few of those little towns along the Newell. Love Coonabarabran and the Warrumbungles area.

          Stupid me for listening to the authorities.

      • Citation required

        The Vic Fed Treasurer doesnโ€™t even like his own state.

        Gapsted Tahbilk Rutherglen Fortifieds Hotham Bells and not much else. Sunsets over the bay and snapper and squid season.

        And the Dees

  2. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Questions need to be asked!

    McDonalds, Coles, Woolies, Caltex, Bunnings etc were all visited by the infectious Victorian escapee on the run to Caloundra, but no Dan Murphyโ€™s.

    Like WTF? NO DMโ€™s!? Something doesnโ€™t add up.

    Un-Australian.

          • Sorry blokes I’m too busy figuring out how my fire works best with massive bits of redgum compared to small & medium bits of redgum and I’m about to get properly started on labeling my spice jars, hopefully with much better centering of text when there are 2 lines of text on the one piece of tape than my first effort, to help you lot with the revolution atm. You know how it is. Adulting takes up so much time and effort.
            Now that the crop is in the ground I’m doing wfh market research stuff and I need to get my study set up as well, so maybe next month ok? But I’m ALL FOR THE REVOLUTION ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿ˜˜

          • DodgydamoMEMBER

            Love your work poppy! Try putting some pine or other hot burning wood in with your big bits of redgum ๐Ÿ”ฅ or find someone who will split it into smaller bits for you ๐Ÿ˜€

    • MathiasMEMBER

      When I was at University, one of my mates was a Spanish guy. Him and me where just mates who worked hard, although, he did have identity issues. We had heaps of fun at University. Great times. I never saw him as anyone else but who he was but he used to tell me that he was judged by others constantly. He did say, ” In Australia, Im judged because Im Spanish and in Spain, they judge me because Im Australian. I cant win. “. Which, you know… ok… I can sort of understand that.

      He had a big ego ( which I’ve noticed tends to be a Spanish trait ), abandoned his mates for money, bragged about the high paying job he got in Melbourne and found a gorgeous Spanish woman. I was, you know, happy for him. No matter what he got in life, he was constantly complaining he was unhappy, lonely and never satisfied.

      I remember talking to this guy and he was saying, ” I think its time I have kids. “. Im like, ” Sure. You want kids do you? “… and he’s like, ” Nah. Im just bored. I’ve done everything else in my life and its time for a new challenge “. Life was just some kind of conquest and this guy was never happy unless he’d conquered someone, belittled them or put himself up on a pedestal.

      I think some people judge there own self-worth on how much they can conquer, belittle and control others. The guy was a cold as ice. One minute he wanted to move to Spain because he hated Australia. Then the next he wanted to be an Australian because he was earning money.

      I ended up abandoning the guy, not because he was spanish… but because his only loyalties had ever been to himself. He had no loyalties for anything but himself and frankly, I cant stand people like that. He was an exceptionally brilliant and bright individual, I’ll give him that. I just couldnt relate with the guy because he ended up being an absolute tool.

      Im an aussie and he spat on everyone of my beliefs… and I knew him and me where never going to get on. I wouldnt be surprised if I was the only friend he had ๐Ÿ™‚ I havent seen him in years but I’d bet money on the fact his wifes divorced him by now and he probably ended up in a gutter.

      Im pretty sure that guy will end up having a very lonely life… and I know its not because he was Spanish. It was his attitude.

        • MathiasMEMBER

          If I havent replied to you, its probably because I didnt see it. I assure you, its not intentional.

          Im just flipping between screens here Mig. I got 3 big monitors on my desk and throughout certain times of day, my minds focused on lots of stuff.

          Im a thinker, you like Mig. I just have the balls to run with it which many others dont seem to have.

          As the aboriginals would say, ” Your lifes your story / journey “. You get old Mig. You learn things as you get older.

          A lot of bullying happens in Australia. I assure you, Race has nothing to do with it. I cop it every single day as well. I think I just deal with it better. Im a little fiery at times ha ha. Maybe its the irish in me ;p

          Maybe its my Private School Upbringing but if there’s one thing I’ve learned, is when people give you sh*t, then you need to give it back ha ha.

          I’d tell you about the Territorial Surfy who got his head caved in 3 weeks ago but its probably not appropriate conversation for MB ๐Ÿ™‚ I was surfing his break and he didnt see my 6 mates around the corner lol. Yeah, I dont get bullied much Mig. That might be why. ( My mates took off his underpants and wrapped them around the aerial of a car that drove off. Naked guy running on the street. Funniest thing I’ve ever seen lol. ” Give me my pants back man ” lol ).

        • MathiasMEMBER

          > You complain and canโ€™t even own what you complain about! Fvcking pussy

          ha ha. Grumpy bugger arent ya? lol

          Your good bud. Australia still loves ya ;p

      • MathiasMEMBER

        A Baby Boomer who bought a house for $30k telling todays young they are being unreasonable for not owning a $500k house, getting laid and starting a family lol.

        I bet if you gave Mig your house and handed over the keys, much would change in Australias Society lol.

        Todays young are being oppressed. Its more then just Financial. Its Social Bullying as well. Its also Favouritism ( Boomers keeping the best stuff for themselves and not allowing the young into there little social circles to receive any of the benefits ). Basically, being shut out of society.

        The damage is in economic stats so its pretty hard to deny its existence.

        When you read Brenton Terrants stuff, yes, the guy was emotionally confused… but if you ever got a chance to read the document ( the one the police tried to hide ^^ ), he made it very clear what his anger was.

        The guy was 28, saw no future for himself, saw a Country that hated him and despised him and saw no way out.

        You may say, ” Oh yeah, but that guy was insane “. I’d argue that the way he expressed his emotions was off track but his core concerns, where very valid. I’d say he had every right to be angry. Australia called it, ‘ Preventing more Terrorism ‘ but all Australia has done, is silenced young voices and relinquished democracy for those who wish to speak.

        Bullying is extensive in this Country and the Boomers have a lot to be sorry for.

        Im an Aussie. A jokes a joke. I can take a joke as much as the next guy. Its a bit rough when you’ve got a segment of the population thats drawn blood and extorted 20 years of your existence, joking that ” oh those young wont do anything “. Australias destroying young lives and Boomers are 100% responsible. Ignorant but responsible nevertheless.

        Yeah, China… but… who brought the Chinese into Australia and for what? To pay down the Boomers.

        The young have No Power. Thats what the Boomers need to understand. Its all been stripped from them. This is the generation you expect is going to save you? Good luck with that. On present trajectory, Boomers are going to blow up Australia.

    • The Travelling Phantom

      People really scared from lockdown and running away like refugees, I think Scomo needs to stop the boats no more
      It’s stop the Victorians!!

      • MathiasMEMBER

        You worried your house prices might go down?

        I dont think she was scared. I think she was being paid ๐Ÿ™‚

        There is enough hate in this Country to sink a ship. The Boomers have just learned to ignore everything and live in denial.

        We could be murdering Uyghuirs in this Country and Boomers would just say, ” Not my problem “.

    • The Travelling Phantom

      If chyna paid what Trump asking for, then every country got some $$ and they distributed on people, how much you and I will get? Also would that affect house prices??

    • MathiasMEMBER

      How would you extract that $15T ? Ask China nicely, ” Can you please give us $15T? ” lol.

      They wont pay up. They’ll ignore you. They’ll tell you where to go.

      Which as we know, leaves only one choice… World War 3.

      As I understand it, China currently has around 200-250 nuclear weapons and plans to have 1000 by 2030.

      Knowing Americans, if there is compensation due, I dont think they’ll allow China to get away with that. I cant see Americans doing nothing and just letting it slide heh.

      Yeah, I dunno… but sounds like it could get real interesting.

      If Australia got attacked, who do you think would be Nuked first? Darwin? Sydney?

      What are the odds of a Chinese Nuclear Submarine popping its head out of the ocean, dropping an offshore Nuke on Sydney and irradiating everything in a 90 klm radius? Would we be too far? Who knows?

  3. New Zealand โ€ฆ Interest Co NZ Breakfast Briefing โ€ฆ Extract โ€ฆ

    โ€ฆ International air travel not recovering โ€ฆ IATA โ€ฆ

    UST bond yields fall; Canada stays the course; Japanese machine tool orders strong; global tax deal gets sceptics; air travel not recovering; UST 10yr slips again to 1.49%; gold soft and oil firm; NZ$1 = 71.8 USc; TWI-5 = 73.4 โ€ฆ David Chaston โ€ฆ Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/110775/ust-bond-yields-fall-canada-stays-course-japanese-machine-tool-orders-strong-global-tax

    https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-monthly-analysis—april-2021/

    โ€ฆ extract โ€ฆ

    โ€ฆ Yesterday we reported a strong recovery in air cargo volumes. But the same isn’t true of international passenger travel. It is still moribund. However, there are strong recoveries in domestic air travel around the globe, with May 2022 volumes now only -25% lower than in May 2019 when they were ‘normal’. International travel is still almost -90% lower.

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