Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Stock markets remain quite flat and uninterested here in Asia following a similar mood overnight with the fallout from the bad-but-good-hangon wait a minute US unemployment report still causing a lot of hesitation in risk markets across the complex. The USD remains in a weakish state, but has firmed slightly this afternoon against undollar assets, with gold unable to climb back above the $1900USD per ounce level.  Bitcoin continues to selloff, now well below the $33K level, making new daily and weekly lows as interest in the crypto currency world almost evaporates:

The Shanghai Composite fell over 0.5% to close at 3579 points, still unable to climb back above the 3600 point level while the Hang Seng Index is steady after its previous selloff, down a handful of points  28738 points.  Japanese stocks continue to struggle with a stronger Yen with the Nikkei 225 taking back the previous meagre gains to close 0.1% lower at 28963 points. Meanwhile the USDJPY has put on a very mild bounce after decelerating into support just above the 109 handle, but remains poised here at the previous weekly support level:

The ASX200 was the only market to make headway, but only just, closing just 10 points higher at 7291 points, as the resurgent Australian dollar still can’t get past its previous weekly highs that are acting as resistance alongside the medium term downtrend from the start of the year:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lifting slightly going in the London open with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 quite elevated and wanting to advance past the previous record high, and while the low moving average provides a good uncle point, but watch momentum because the lower timeframe charts are suggesting inversion:

The economic calendar picks up a bit tonight with EZ wide GDP estimates for the 3Q, the German ZEW Survey and US trade balance figures.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. Remote working update … Apple employees remind management of its culture …

    Apple employees revolt after CEO Tim Cook asks them to return to the opffice … Alan Mastrangelo … Breitbart
    … h/t PH …

    https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2021/06/07/apple-employees-revolt-after-ceo-tim-cook-asks-them-to-return-to-office/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=daily&utm_campaign=20210607

    In a letter to the company, obtained by the Verge, staff members said they “had to learn how to deliver the same quality of products and services that Apple is known for, all while working almost completely remotely” during the “unprecedented challenge” they faced amid the Chinese coronavirus pandemic.

    “We did so, achieving another record-setting year,” the employees added. “We found a way for everyone to support each other and succeed in a completely new way of working together — from locations we were able to choose at our own discretion.”

    The Apple staff members went on to say that “without the inclusivity that flexibility brings, many of us feel we have to choose between either a combination of our families, our well-being, and being empowered to do our best work, or being a part of Apple.”

    “This is a decision none of us take lightly, and a decision many would prefer not to have to make,” they said. … read more via hyperlink above …

    More Workers Are Quitting Their Jobs Instead Of Returning To The Office … Bloomberg / Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/more-workers-are-quitting-their-jobs-instead-returning-office

    Chamber Of Commerce Confirms US Labor Shortage Is A “National Economic Crisis” … The Epoch Times / Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/chamber-commerce-confirms-us-labor-shortage-national-economic-crisis

    Study Shows Employers Prefer Working From Home VIDEO … NBC San Diego

    https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/study-shows-employers-prefer-working-from-home/2620908/

  2. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    Spurious & Incoherent 1% apologia ignoring that the fact that Australia’s 1% are big spongers off the state, and exist in profoundly uncompetitive economy, made moribund by restrictions on access to key high income employment sectors…..and don’t mention the politicians and public sector high income types…..

    Australia’s 1 per cent: Budget reliance on high and middle income earners grows

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-one-per-cent-budget-reliance-on-high-and-middle-income-earners-grows-20210607-p57yrj.html

    By Shane Wright Updated June 7, 2021 — 7.25pmfirst published at 6.38p

    Four in five Australians earn less than $100,000 with new tax figures revealing the federal budget is increasingly reliant on the nation’s best-paid 1 per cent to cover the cost of growing services and infrastructure.

    Starts off with a ‘hook’ to get people looking – ie something they will agree inherently with and know perfectly well – in this case that the vast bulk of us aren’t mega earners. Then proceeds off onto more marginal ground by suggesting that we are increasingly reliant on the 1% to fund the budget. That immediately positions the entire budget funding dynamic as between the 1% and the rest (which of course it isn’t).

    Doesn’t go within a bulls roar of what the 1% do to get their 1% status, and the caveats which apply to that, the economy within which our particular 1% earn their crust, what it may be they take from the budget, or what other forms of taxation there may be out there (like maybe taxing the resources – or national bequest – we flog off overseas) or even posing the questions ‘why don’t we create a competitive economy that earned money?’

    Data from the Australian Tax Office also shows that to be a member of the top 1 per cent of taxpayers requires a taxable income of at least $350,000. By contrast, an income of at least $700,000 is needed to get into the top 1 per cent of American taxpayers.

    Well the backdrop to that assertion is that maybe our 1% might like to go to the US (guns and all) and do whatever it is they do here over there. Or maybe our 1% can do things here that their 1% cant do there? (like write off real estate speculation?). And is as much of our 1% earning off the state as is the US 1%?

    The annual taxation statistics from the ATO, covering the 2018-19 financial year, reveals there were almost 14.7 million individual taxpayers that year, a 2.7 per cent increase over 2017-18, who paid a combined $213 billion in income tax.
    Eighty per cent of those taxpayers had a taxable income of less than $100,000, the lowest proportion on record. In 2012-13, 90 per cent of taxpayers had a taxable income below $100,000.
    One in nine of all Australians, with a near even split between men and women, have a taxable income between $50,000 and $60,000.

    Some straight numbers reflecting a population growing by 2% plus per year. Inflation will tend to reduce the numbers of people earning below a given point per year. What is Ninefax suggesting? Circa 12% of all Australians have taxable income (after deductions for uneconomic or speculative purposes like real estate) between 50-60k per annum. And 60-70k? and 70-80k? and 80-90k? Why not look at distinctions between taxable income and earnings? (wouldn’t want to offend the government subsidy reliant property speculation sector?)

    The ATO, which broke the nation’s taxpayers up into single percentile groups, revealed the top 1 per cent included 82,000 men who had an average taxable income of $760,853 while for women the average was $753,481.
    The men declared $62.6 billion in taxable income while 28,000 women declared $21.4 billion.
    The men paid $26.5 billion in tax, the most of any group, while women paid $9.1 billion. Combined, these 110,000 people paid 17 per cent of the nation’s income tax.

    OK, we have our hat tip to the gender sensibilities of the age. If the ATO is divvying things up into the single percents then there is a very good question of why they haven’t also stated quite baldly what tax the 1% have paid on that income and what deductions they have claimed as well. This is ‘taxable income’ not earnings remember. And that’s 17% of income tax, not 17% of all tax.

    Those in the top tax bracket, which starts at $180,000, paid almost $70 billion or a third of the nation’s income tax bill.
    As part of the federal government’s three-stage tax plan, which started in the 2018-19 financial year, high-income earners will not receive a tax cut until 2024-25. The Labor Party has yet to decide whether it will continue to support these cuts.

    Before we get to whether the ALParatchiks sign their own extinction warrant by supporting those tax cuts, let us ask what percentage of income tax receipts are paid by the 1% worldwide (and are Australia’s 1% doing better or worse than their offshore peers in relation to how much of the national income tax take they cough up). Let us add in the question ‘what are those 1% offshore doing to be part of whatever national 1% they are part of in comparison with our 1%?’

    Then we could head over to ‘what other taxes are there?’ if we don’t want to tax our people through their incomes? Do we want a load of consumption taxes like in the United States? Should we (cough) tax our resources more? (particularly while it looks as though our biggest consumer is posing a strategic threat).

    Ratings’ agency S&P Global, which on Monday lifted Australia’s triple A credit rating to stable from negative on the back of the country’s strong economic recovery, said the budget was benefiting from growing tax collections from companies and individuals.
    “The pace of the economic recovery, and exceptionally strong demand for key commodity exports – namely iron ore – have provided a timely boost to government revenues such as company and income taxes, the goods and services tax, and conveyance duties. We expect key revenue lines to outperform the central government’s own forecasts,” it said.

    This is the buttering up paragraph which should have an asterix and exclamation mark stating ‘we can afford it!’ following the governments mantra of we are somehow doing better out of the Covid rebound than any other location on earth and we should spend our good fortune on ourselves (or those of ourselves most entitled to it) now.

    The OECD, in its global outlook released last week, said the Australian economy would be “buttressed” by the federal government’s budget decision to extend the low and middle-income tax offset for another year while urging states to overhaul their property taxes.
    “More states and territories should replace taxes and fees on property transactions with a recurrent land tax to promote mobility and more efficient property use,” it said.

    This is the secondary buttering up paragraph, a gentle reminder that peons (like us) have had another years worth of bribes proffered and implying we should give away everlasting tax cuts to the uber set as a fair tradeoff.

    Of the men in the highest earning group, more than 18,500 reported a net capital gain of $6.8 billion – by far the most of any income group in the country. Another 13,000 women in the top 1 per cent declared $599 million in net capital gains.
    Men reported average rental losses of $6100, the largest of any group, but women reported net rental income of $5180 — one of the few groups not to lose money on their rental properties.

    This is the man woman divvy up. There is a gender pay gap in the top 1% too. But somehow the women 1%ers aren’t gouging the rest of us for real estate speculation the way the 1% men are. Are they gouging another way?

    Amongst this group are the nation’s best-paid people, headed by 4150 surgeons who had an average taxable income of $394,303.

    But within this occupational grouping, some did much better than others.
    The best-paid people in the country are its 180 neurosurgeons. The 150 male neurosurgeons had an average taxable income of $630,000 while the 30 female neurosurgeons had an average taxable income of $304,290.
    The next highest paid group were the nation’s 125 ear, nose and throat surgeons. Of this group, the 102 men had an average income of $509,428 compared to the 23 women with an average $287,130.

    Now we get to some substance. The 280 thousand people who make up Australia’s 1%. And their occupations.

    Of the top 10 income earning professions in Australia 5 are medical professionals. Is that is what makes it so important to create an eye of the needle environment for ordinary punters to get into these professions, while the people ordinary punters bump into down the local medical centre as GPs tend to be from Iraq, India or China and have got their medical educations in Russia or China? Australia wants these people earning uber amounts, and the industry doesn’t want too many of them. And policy supports that. And what percentage of their incomes are we paying through our Medicare levies? (and even if they don’t take public patients how much of a floor does that slap under their incomes?).

    Why don’t we look at some other things while we are at it. Let us start with those GPs we see and the specialists they refer us to.
    This site here gives us a sighter – https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/0acc1895-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/0acc1895-en#figure-d1e24397

    But note that chart suggests all Australian medicos are ‘self employed’ meaning that for Australian taxation purposes they are small businesses and can write off virtually everything they do to feed that status. And the people they are billing is us, through Medicare, for the most part. That chart suggests that circa 50 thousand Australians in the specialised medical professions earn significant volumes from us. And how many Australian kids have access to those professions? If junior would like to be a doctor tell them to get 99.5% in their high school results if they want to do it here, or prepare to head over to China or Russia to do Medical school (where 80% secondary school results will do the job) and come back after some expensive exams to work in Australia before sitting on the other side of the desk from you and telling you to lie down and have a Panadol.

    Then after the 5 medical professions we have Financial dealer. Now we can say what we like about financial dealers but for the most part they really do operate in a global market and if they are expensive then capital will go elsewhere looking for someone to deal.

    Beyond those guys we have the legal profession, with the uber ranks again funded by the state (that’d be your judges and magistrates or commissioners etc) and about half the legal profession working off the real estate Ponzi in the guise of conveyancing types. At least the profession can state it lets anybody in, with Australian Universities turning about 15 thousand graduates out per year for a sector which employees roughly 65 thousand all up.

    From there we go to engineers either mining or managing. The mining engineers we can assume are paid on basis reflecting someone somewhere buying what the mines they engineer sell, so theres a case for considering that as a market. Of the rest presumably some (in this day of shovel ready stimulus packages) is funded by the taxpayer too, and we could be sure that any given engineering firm will be pretty interested in the next big project which presumably will have taxation breaks and offsets revolving around it even if it isn’t funded by the government outright. But we could also presume that much of what they do represents capital considering that whatever it is they are managing is important. Of course we should never ever forget that Engineers and Medicos, even Lawyers, require technical expertise and competence.

    From there let’s go to the circa 190 thousand individuals with an average taxable income of 164 grand who are either chief executives or managing directors. 2/3 of the 1%. The 2/3 not saving or improving peoples lives, or replacing faulty body parts, or making sure bridges don’t collapse or our dams don’t burst. But these guys dont require technical expertise or competence, and it isnt difficult to find some who cannot string a sentence together without stuffing it up or who blanche at the prospect of working out some basic percentages or multiplying something, and have only one strong suite which gives them their status – that of spewing out whatever bullshit is spewed to them to those underneath, and to customers, the ‘team player’ where the only member of the ‘team’ is the individual and the regularly kissed buttocks of whatever team member is above them. All subordinates are expendable, or dismissable as canaille, and the easier the world makes it for them to do so the more their power is over those underneath. Often deranged psychopaths, invariably self serving. Prone to self pontificating, convinced of the righteousness of …..themselves.

    They are the 2/3 posturing, posing and generally bullshitting their way through your days. The 2/3 making sure you behave with the right obsequiousness in your place of employment, the 2/3 who do your performance reviews and the 2/3 beaming you inboxes full of staff questionnaires or censuses, which are invariably bullshit.

    Is Australia that well managed? Are these managers managing world leading enterprises or living it up inside a population Ponzi fuelled bubble? Are they the people behind your casualised employment, or rewarding bumlickers nepotism or some other bullshit at your expense? Are they the people telling you a pay increase cant be afforded while getting their nose in the trough?

    Now before we leave that 1% let us also consider a couple of other likely residents who would ordinarily be hoping to avoid recognition in the crowd. Let’s call them politicians and senior public servants.

    Australia’s politicians are amongst the most superbly remunerated in the world. A couple of charts tells the story….. From Parliament House we have Australian politicians in relation to average Australians…….
    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/BaseSalary2019

    And although this is a tad old (2013) – one can assume our politicians haven’t lost their world beating lead in recent years…..

    These are the people who will be talking about efficiency and tightening our belts as soon as they think they have a mandate to do so………

    They are of course advised to do so by the senior bureaucrats – of whom there are about 15 thousand who would ostensibly lay claim to being in the top 2-3% if not 1%ers…

    Back into the article at hand however there is standard real estate spinning line for anyone unaware that real wealth in Australia tends to live near the coast in Sydney or in the chenille lipped suburbs alongside the Yarra.

    Double Bay in Sydney remains home to the people with the nation’s highest incomes, where 3572 taxpayers declared an average taxable income of $202,541. No.2 postcode in the country was Melbourne’s Toorak at $201,926.

    Then we have some devoutly wedded to the idea of personal tax minimisation surely highlighting something to be addressed and some number-genderwang .

    While paying a lot of tax, some high-income earners manage to avoid handing over anything to the ATO. There were 42 people who earned more than $1 million in the year but had a taxable income of less than $6000.
    This group had $205 million worth of tax deductions, of which $158 million were gifts or donations.

    The number of people earning more than $1 million in income grew by 3 per cent to a record 15,358. More than 6600 of them live in NSW while another 4000 are in Victoria. Men declared $3.5 billion in taxable income compared to $3.1 billion for women. Men paid $629 million in net tax while women in this group paid $611 million.

    Both men ($2388) and women ($959) registered average losses on their rental income while overall capital gains were $18,700 for males and $19,800 for females.

    They also have some of the highest HELP debts of any group, with men owing an average of $26,400 while women owe $23,500.

    Are women better property investors than men? Should we be extracting more University fees from higher earners? Then we get aspersions cast upon the poor – are they really retirees, or are they really negatively gearing speculators? – before getting to another angle on the tax avoiding = wealth accrual end of things….

    The figures do show the bottom 1 per cent, at an income of less than $21,907, but this includes part-retirees drawing a part-pension who are also earning taxable income from investments including rental income.
    The next most important source of revenue for the government is the business sector.

    There were one million companies tracked by the ATO through the year. Very large firms accounted for just 0.1 per cent of the number but paid 62 per cent of total tax, while 76 per cent of firms were considered “micro” entities that paid 11 per cent of the company tax bill.
    Finance companies such as banks paid $25 billion worth of company tax while the mining sector paid $22 billion. The nation’s superannuation funds, which do not count towards company tax, paid $29 billion in tax.

    So presumably some of those micro entities including self-employed types minimising their taxes with a range of gears and offsets, while the ordinary mug punter is being told to lap up another years worth of low income offset.

    • MathiasMEMBER

      Thats brilliant. I dont think you could have outlined Australias Corruption better if you tried.

      My head is finding it really hard to fathom how we got like this?

      I thought we had professional experts in this Country within our Parliament, ATO and our various other organisations as statisticians.

      It really is hard for my mind to comprehend how Australia has managed to become so dumb that we’ve allowed all of this to happen, without a care in the world, while doing absolutely nothing about it.

      Yeah. I’m absolutely gob smacked at how we’ve allowed Australia to get to this level. Thats whats been playing on my mind a lot. How can people who have been in politics for as many years as these people have, not understand what they are doing to this nation.

      Either Corruption is a hell of a lot more serious in Australia then any of us have ever realised or we’ve got some kind of backroom military complex thing going on which is steering the Australian ship, marginalising the Australian people in ways most of us cant comprehend.

      It all seems too surreal. I find it really hard to accept that our politicians can be this dumb and Australians around Australia ( most probably migrants who want to see Australians dead ) are manipulating Australias democracy for the worse.

      This seems like one of the most aggressive attacks on the Australia People I’ve ever seen since I’ve been alive in this Country. I’ve never seen anything like it.

      It feels to me like Australias been hijacked by criminals and/or possibly foreign interference. There’s no humanity in this Country anymore. Its the People vs the Government, and its just all out war.

      Im just hoping by miracle, something gets better if we wait out another election but this just feels like an Australia that we’ve never seen before.

      I think the Truthe will come out eventually. It always does and when it does, my guess is the outcome will be pretty severe. There has to be a reason the Australian Government has decided to kill off half its people.

      Is there a personal war going on in parliament between two selfish people who think is more important then the entire Nation of Australia? I dunno.

      I think its become too serious to ignore.

    • I was gunna briefly write a riposte (at least to the bits I have personal knowledge of) to this extended and tendentious verbiage (tendentiousness that would make Ninefax blush) but then I thought it doesn’t matta. It would be a pointless folly anyway as Mathias thoroughly endorses it.

      • GentaurMEMBER

        All of them :). Have a look at a 10 year chart, including volume, of the US-listed URA etf to get an idea of what’s going on in the sector.
        Oz ones include age boe pen vmy pdn lot mey toe era bmn dyl
        Very volatile sector though. Can belt up or down.

        • RomulusMEMBER

          Yep Uranium has a history of epic runs. Price goes parabolic since the cost of Uranium is a marginal to a nuclear power plant.
          CHN nearology plays have also been having stellar runs recently but pulled back the last few days – CPN and MAN look interesting for mine. Disc I hold all.

  3. The Travelling Phantom

    It seems some media websites are down
    Bbc, cnn, the Age, SMH, etc…can anyone confirm if there is something on the internets?

  4. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Great news boys!

    After selling for 10 million bucks! the Brushie Bowlo…sniff,…my bowlo, the bowlo cruelly shut down by the evil Carlingford Bowlo after they acquired control of our Bowlo with false promises of keeping our Bowlo financially viable has finally been purchased.
    Im told by Marionite Christians.

    Further investigations will reveal if said purchasers are the same good people who currently run the FC club
    a bar and restaurant situated at the site formally known as the Rydalmere bowlo.
    Their lease with Parramatta council is insecure and Brushie would be the perfect site for them.
    Fingers crossed.
    It is looking like the table of Knowledge may be returning to its Brushie Bowlo homeland.
    If so much alcohol will be consumed and all will be as it should be in the world.

    Well at the intersection of Ermo, Dundas, West Ryde and Eastwood anyway.

    https://twitter.com/ErmoPlumber/status/1402080965392883712?s=19

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        A great sadness will come to be if the Lord is to say it be so.

        My hope is that said purchasers want a return on their capital.
        Are tithes and the collection plate as reliable a source of income as the regular patronage of semi functional alcoholics?

        If it is those Rydalmere FC people. Then it’ll be run as a licensed club and restaurant.
        Im dropping in there tomorrow to find out.
        Like I said fingers crossed.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            One of the managers at the Rydalmere FC told me their origins were as a Christian Lebanese soccer club (lol,…he called it a football club) started in the early 1970s.
            They have been having trouble with Parramatta council (Politics over land use) and Woolies the owners of the Family in at Rydalmere on the other side of Victoria road.
            I really really really really hope it is them that have purchased it.
            They do good food but the beers are a bit pricy.
            😔

  5. SweeperMEMBER

    $32.9K

    Meanwhile in El Salvador… after promising to adopt bitcoin as legal tender; not only has GDP not increased by 25% but spreads are now widening and creditors are getting jittery

  6. The FNG.MEMBER

    Good talk about Hollywood selling their soul to China but not getting paid (and how that’s over) and commentary on story telling in Chinese films and why Chinese films don’t have hero’s.

    *spoiler* Because the state is the only allowable hero. lmao. And also because the Chinese and their society is horribly damaged. That’s not funny. Too bad r/DeadOrVegetable is no more, that sub was 50% horrible things happening in China. That surreal horror movie dystopia. Videos of people just standing and watching as some innocent victim of a minor traffic accident was finished off….they’ve all been taken by the body snatchers.

    https://youtu.be/muO5fy7lOOM

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