Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are relatively upbeat here in Asia despite the risk off mood from overnight caused by the “too good” private jobs figures that are pointing to a tapering by the Fed if tonights US employment print also goes into the “too good” category.  Bitcoin is rolling over this afternoon after obvious resistance at the $40K level was rejected overnight:

The Shanghai Composite is up a few points and going nowhere going into the close to remain to be just below the 3600 point level while the Hang Seng Index is actually up as well after a torrid week, but only a handful of points to be just above the 29000 point level.  Japanese stocks are the only downer, despite a much lower Yen, with the Nikkei 225 off by 0.4% to be just below the 29000 point level as the USDJPY solidifies above the 110 handle after its breakout last night:

The ASX200 continues to outperform with a solid 0.5% rise so far going into the close, currently at 7296 points helped by a depressed Australian dollar that is solidly below the 77 handle and likely to stay there for sometime given its broken through weekly support:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are poised here going in the London open as traders continue to weigh the risk of the forthcoming US jobs report tonight. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 remains uneasy with price wanting to get back above the 4200 point level but that megaphone pattern is now morphing into a symmetrial triangle after breaking ATR support at the 4200 point level so this could get ugly if the print is too good:

The economic calendar will focus squarely on the May non-farm payroll (NFP) US unemployment print that will dictate the direction for risk markets until the June issue…

Have a good weekend and stay safe.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Oi, damm TTP had it firsted when son came in and didn’t press submit button.
    Been sorting stainless bolts out all day, another 40 years of sorting to go.

  2. Just a Few Clots

    Someone that likes to put themselves in the news has admitted herself to hospital. I suppose this will get her in the news cycle again if that was her aim.

    No stopping the ASX!

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Mate from Lenox Head just rang. Surf instructor client fell off her board and ripped his shoulder . Major operations, a year’s compo.

    • The Travelling Phantom

      I’ve heard a rumour fox will be pushing the ones going on the slide 😜

      • Had to think about it – not au fait with the going on. Who knows where next weekend’s huge match will be. Shame for the Reverend – probably his last one – he deserves better. Thanks .GOV – I don’t do the quarantine mate

  3. MathiasMEMBER

    Brits are waking up… Friday arvo crazyness before the big dump.

    Another week of Forex Trading. Where did all that time go? Time to wax the surfboard, throw it in the uterus and decide whether its too cold ( or I could actually be stuffed ) going for a surf on the weekend. Go bush, light the billy and do a winters camping sesh under the starlight. Its always great being outdoors.

    Maybe I’ll just go to sleep for 2 days and dream about the stress I have in my life. The mortgage I dont have, the woman who constantly stresses and nags me, which I dont have and the 2.5 kids keeping me awake at night, which I dont have. Yep. The secret to a happy life is easy, ” just… say… no “.

    Bring out the old Home Brew Kit. Think up the latest recipe to perfection ( I reckon I must be the best home brewer in Australia, if I do say so myself ). A squeeze of lime and a dash of honey, mwuah. Brewed to Perfection. Absolutely Bewdiful. No man could ever ask for more.

    A surf… a camp… a brew and a snooze under the starlight. Sounds like my kind of heaven.

    Weekends are sweeeeet.

  4. migtronixMEMBER

    Pounding down in pedestrian pathology
    The knaves that crave a gainsain magnanimous
    Portent a purpose less prestigious than profligate
    C. Porter
    S. U. Moi

  5. pfh007.comMEMBER

    Vanity Fair appears to prefer Bat Lab over Bat Soup.

    Fortunately they tie the Yankees (and Trump) into the Bat Lab theory so the marsupial should be reasonably happy that the US remains mostly exceptional.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Riddle me this, how many much lower regulation of zootic pathogen research goes on in the millions of universities worldwide?

      If they can manage undergrads….

    • Strip out the neoliberalism out of the U.S. so it stops exporting it around the world and returns to something sort a like the Eisenhower period and then we can have a nice chat about how to deal with things like AGW.

      • Yes, but faux neoliberialism paradox Bernays communism economic motives Chicago school trickle down South American dictator trickle up chortle socialism is what you really mean, right?

        • So you are suggesting a card carrying blue dog corporatist third way Dem is anti neoliberal ….. pull the other one ….

          • Biden is more an empty suit than Obama was … the establishment dems are already caving on everything because the ev’bal Republicans TM and just like Howard wants the unwashed to go back to sleep whilst neoliberalism white ants the rest of the joint until its too late. The DNC is a corporatist funding machine and nothing else eg. it serves its masters ….

          • SweeperMEMBER

            Are you actually watching whats happening?

            He has already got a $1.9T stimulus through – 1/3 around health/covid
            About to pass $1T infrastructure plan.
            raised minimum wage for federal contractors and will soon raise overall minimum wage.
            Is raising the top income tax rate & CGs rate
            introducing 15% min corporate tax rate to crack down on tax avoidance
            increasing corp tax rate to 25%
            rolled out a speedy vaccine program and has slowed spread of covid
            50% of adults are now vaccinated
            got the Fed committed to keeping rates low regardless of inflation paranoia – and they really are committed to full employment now.
            Onshoring manufacturing – eg. semiconductor industry
            Rejoined Paris agreement
            $10B for clean energy
            Brought about 4m Americans back to work, US economy about to boom.

            Just watch whats happening and avoid the thematic plague on both houses undergraduate leftist take.
            Yes it could be much better, but its already 100 times better than Obama.

          • Your joking right ….

            Everything you just pointed out is over a long time line aka could be poof tomorrow … bloody hell his track record speaks for itself ie prison industrial complex, pro corporatist, pro Ukrainian Nazi, pro neocon war, NC is all over this dynamic … what is your excuse …

          • SweeperMEMBER

            How? How can $1.9T in stimulus be gone tomorrow when a lot of the money is in peoples pockets?
            Anyway that’s the thing about democracy the electorate is free to change their mind if they like – no policy is permanent, unless you want to have a Xi in charge.

            You point out his track record during the neoliberal epoch which I already acknowledged is bad. How you think that contradicts my point I have no Idea. I said the political culture has changed and Biden is operating within the constraints of a new culture.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            “no policy is permanent,”


            I’ll bet all your houses you’re wrong….

          • SweeperMEMBER

            If journalism hadn’t of forced the electorate to vote against Shorten you would have seem that that policy is also not permanent.

          • Per your previous comment about Biding[tm] have you noticed how all the neoliberal media has gone all quite and lets not forget the road is paved for the VP …. eh

          • SweeperMEMBER

            I think I’ve worked out why you don’t like Biden.
            He’s not an MMTer.
            ie. he is making the rich pay tax.

        • SweeperMEMBER

          It’s not about the politician, its about the underlying political culture (and ideology supporting it). There has been a shift.
          Roosevelt was much more from the elite v Biden.

        • SweeperMEMBER

          btw Skippy, why are you so sure of the Chinese regime’s account of the origin?

          • Please don’t project your own environmental biases and their methodological methods on me … then some burnish themselves with the mantle of being a Keynesian.

            The point being is no one is sure and there is a both a track record for hiving of the risk of such activities offshore and funding dynamics eg. hence anyone presenting a case without any hard fact is pushing an agenda.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            I’m looking at evidence and a pattern of events and saying it is by no means conclusive that the origin was natural.

          • The information to date is natural unless one has a ZH like mental affliction … on the other hand it really does not matter the region it came from because heaps of western nations set up shop or fund stuff in other countries or did the whole GW rendition thingy fly over your head.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            Biden has already said he wants an inquiry. It’s mainstream.

            “on the other hand it really does not matter the region it came from”

            Of course it matters…
            Global economy blows up / 3.7m deaths. Yeah lets not play the blame game.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            wow and you call me a conspiracist.

            How exactly do you think Trump pulled that one off so effectively and kept it all quiet when his whole administration was defined by incompetence and leaks.

          • “wow and you call me a conspiracist.”

            Where have I done so and you might desist with the rhetorical special pleas or is it to difficult to understand that both are more the same than they are different with some time line differences.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            Also what is the motive?
            Why would any foreign state unleash a virus likely to become a global pandemic on foreign soil?
            Risk a not minor diplomatic kerfuffle in exchange for what… have their own economy blow up in their face, >500K deaths and lose the next election? Yeah that sounds like a well thought out theory.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      “Vanity Fair appears to prefer Bat Lab over Bat Soup”

      So does Biden. This isn’t going to go away. There are a lot of inconsistencies in the official story. eg. the way the virus took off immediately from Nov and without pauses, and the short time it took for China to grow the virus (which was barely announced at the time)

      • Why not both?
        Also; why not outsourcing of bioweapon development by the US? MIght explain the initial reluctance to expose intelligence, no?

    • The Travelling Phantom

      Beautiful! Really funny, unfortunately wasnt born in this golden era of free spirit

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      It was a simpler time.

      Indeed – “well it’s after half past six, right?”.

    • The real life Barry H once surreptitiously emptied his in-flight meal into the sick bag, then pretended to vomit into it with great volume and theatrics, then ate the contents with similar theatrical lip-smacking joy. Other passengers around needed their sick bags…..

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        He’s a legend that wouldn’t be allowed today because we are all cursed with progressive social justice wankers. The biggest scourge on humanity the world has ever seen

      • haroldusMEMBER

        I actually saw this one at the surrealist exhibition in Canberra a long, long time ago.

        Of all the art there including lobsters and melting clocks, I loved this one because of the coarse obscenity of it. I like Aristophanes for the same reason. This is a pretty funny scene.

        Kritylla: Never got pregnant? You just said you’ve got nine kids!

        Kleisthenes: Stand up straight, you! I can see what you’re doing! You’re shoving your cock down between your legs and –there! You’re pushing it behind you!

        Kritylla runs behind Mnesilochus. Begins laughter.

        Ahahaha! Here’s his prick! Look at its little head! Oh, and what a beautiful colour, darling!

        Kleisthenes (Excited at the prospect of seeing a naked prick.): Where? Where is it?

        Mnesilochus pulls it back towards his front.

        Kritylla: Oh, it’s gone now… here it is, at the front!

        Kleisthenes: No… it’s not here!

        Kritylla: Hahahaha! It’s back here again!

        Kleisthenes: What a deep canal you’ve got there, my man! You glide that cock of yours back and forth faster than our neighbours the Corinthians, slide their barges through our isthmus!

        Kritylla: What a shameful bastard! No wonder he puked out all those Euripides insults on us!

        And here’s what they’re talking about the Isthmus.

  6. So, is the Delta variant the Indian variant? Cos I really don’t want to cop the D.

  7. As far as I’m concerned, VC winners should be immune from copping grief for a few misdeeds….open to criticism only by others who have charged a firing machine gun.

  8. On a serious note:
    One of the best lines on the war talk by Dutton and Pezzullo came from The Australian’s columnist Katrina Grace Kelly:
    “We look like a bunch of bogans in a Monaro, doing burnouts on the world stage, yelling obscenities out the window while giving people the finger.”
    To the soundtrack –
    I wonder if HnH has chrome widies and twin fox tails?

  9. migtronixMEMBER

    Twisted tongue took too many
    Tokes, totally blazed in a trap
    Trucking right along, Too faced
    Together couldn’t teach this brother
    Tricks on no board

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Been waiting for the Pfizer jab for weeks now yet my non citizen employee got if straight away… this fcked fcked up country

      • Of course you will direct your vote accordingly at the next election

        I don’t run the vax program mate

  10. The Travelling Phantom

    biggest vaccination hub : Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre is moving
    To make space for…. guess what?


  11. migtronixMEMBER

    Bruno Mars couldn’t
    Eclipse more than a season
    How you be?
    Psylo psyched
    Your cerebellum

  12. migtronixMEMBER

    This bed is on fire
    The boomers put it out
    Ah you think you’re so pretty
    Slammed ScoMo to the wall
    Sparked a coned and chugged.
    A whole
    Pint glass against the wall the 1990s
    Was something tho

    • From a thread I did on April 13. Honestly, the writing has been on the wall from the outset. Pledging to “pay for” infrastructure was an own goal. Playing out exactly as I anticipated and cautioned during every unity task force discussion last summer.
      Quote Tweet
      Stephanie Kelton
      · Apr 14
      If Dems don’t have the votes to go to 28%, then what? Scale down the package? Fight over other ways to raise taxes? The opposition loves it, because they know that the odds of passing anything bold drop precipitously when Dems hold themselves hostage to the “pay for” game. 5/

      • SweeperMEMBER

        So it is because he isn’t following MMT
        Yeah what’s he thinking taxing the rich.

        • Where do you get that idea from …. hes a dead set Washington Consensus Third Way DNC Democrat that takes his economic policy straight from the neoclassical orthodoxy ….

          Are you even aware of the estimates that the U.S. requires about 14T of investment to sort out all the issues built up during the neoliberal era, basic stuff. This whole tax the rich to pay for it is a joke facilitated by the corporate journalists your so fond of /s … yes I noticed your a bit quite on that aspect now the Vichy Dimrats are neoliberal administrators. For extra credit please tell me which C-corp post 889M in profit booked and yet payed no taxes.

          Look I’m not adverse to taxing personal income at progressive rates a la FDR, but the meme that its paying for public stuff so the unwashed think the country is run like a business is just false. That ideological projection is the same thing you complain about journalists stuffing into the electorates heads and then wail at the voters preferences … same M.O.

          You obviously have no clue to U.S. politics or history and your need to push this perspective is a bad case of path dependency or subterfuge. Which is curious considering your past views about the antics of the AET mob or its Libertarian flock and here you are engaging in the very same rhetorical gamesmanship. Your stance on MMT seems the key aspect that just has you besides yourself, absolutely poised against it regardless of any information which supports it eg. is a reality that you can not accept for any reason because it would shatter the foundations you believe[tm] in. Hence the desire to portray a meritocratic Flexian that has failed upwards like Biden, after all the actions the DNC threw at Sanders to keep the neoliberal dream alive …. just wow Sweeper …

  13. migtronixMEMBER

    Straight macking crackalaking
    Put your hands up in the air
    Put your hands up in the air

  14. United States …

    Lumber Prices Slump As Historic Boom Hits A Wall … Zerohedge

    Lumber futures on Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell -3.1% to $1,284.20 per 1,000 board feet, extending last week’s first loss since January. For the last 18 trading sessions, lumber prices have come under pressure amid signs that an unprecedented rally may be waning.

    Citing data from trade publication Random Lengths, CIBC analyst Hamir Patel told Bloomberg that Western spruce-pine-fir prices decreased $130, or -8.1%, compared to last week’s $1,470 per 1,000 board feet, and Southern yellow pine 2×4 lumber dropped $92, or -6.9%, to $1,236 per 1,000 board feet.

    The decline comes alongside a drop in lumber futures, which have tumbled into a bear market, -25%, in recent weeks, from an all-time high reached earlier in May of around $1,711 per 1,000 board feet. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Lumber Gauge Finally Slips in Further Sign Boom May Be Easing … Bloomberg

    National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – April 2021 … AEI

    … understanding aspects ( just aspects ) of the ‘shortage issues’ … bearing in mind business generally has a great capacity to quickly rectify supply shortages and lower prices … if allowed to …

    … healthy competition sees to that …

    Why There are Now So Many Shortages (It’s Not COVID) … Wendover Productions

  15. China’s Foreign Ministry blasted the resurgent interest in the Covid-19 lab-origin theory, noting that the journalist behind a report about Wuhan scientists falling ill is the same one who peddled lies that led to the Iraq War.

    Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin took aim at Michael R. Gordon, a national security correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and one of the authors of the report that added fuel to speculation about Covid-19’s lab origin.

    “Not long ago, Michael R. Gordon, an American journalist, by quoting a so-called ‘previously undisclosed US intelligence report,’ hinted [at] a far-fetched connection between the ‘three sick staff’ at the Wuhan lab and the Covid-19 outbreak,” Wang said at a briefing on Friday.

    The people who hypes up the #Wuhan lab-leak hypothesis is the same people who fabricated the fake information about #Iraq’s “attempt to acquire nuclear weapons” 19 years ago.
    — Spokesperson发言人办公室 (@MFA_China) June 4, 2021

    “Nineteen years ago, it was this very reporter who concocted false information by citing unsubstantiated sources about Iraq’s ‘attempt to acquire nuclear weapons,’ which directly led to the Iraq War,” he charged, referring to the 2003 US invasion.

  16. U.S. Hits 300 Million Doses With Covid in Retreat: Virus Update … Bloomberg

    The U.S. passed the milestone of administering more than 300 million vaccine doses. New cases and deaths continue to plunge and are back to the levels just after U.S. states began imposing restrictions in March 2020.

    Key Developments:
    • Global Tracker: Cases exceed 172.7 million; deaths pass 3.7 million
    • Vaccine Tracker: More than 2.09 billion doses administered
    • Bribing people to get vaccinated just might be working in the U.S.
    • Why the mutated coronavirus variants are so worrisome: QuickTake
    • ‘Covid zero’ risks being ‘Covid limbo’ amid slow vaccine uptake
    • Is Covid still a threat in a vaccinated world?