Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A mixed tone across risk markets here in Asia with the lack of a lead from Wall Street overnight and only the RBA meeting giving any proper catalysts for traders to work on, with currency markets lifting slightly against USD, particularly Pound Sterling, with gold continuing to climb above the $1900USD per ounce barrier.  Bitcoin continues to go nowhere as volatility reduces, with price hovering just above the $37K level with the target below at $30K not that far away:

The Shanghai Composite is looking to start the month with a scratch session, still hovering above 3600 points while the Hang Seng Index is taking back its previous losses, currently up 0.6% at 29330 points.  Japanese stocks are in hesitation mode without any strong leads with the Nikkei 225 slipping 0.2% to close at 28814 points as the USDJPY hangs on at the mid 109 handle after deflating all week so far. If it breaks ATR support here, the last week lows beckon at the 108.70 level:

The ASX200 walked back a little but only just, falling 0.3% to hold well above the 7100 point level, closing at 7142 points, while the Australian dollar initially broke out before the RBA meeting but took that all back and then some, almost getting back to the start of week starting point at the 77.30 level, looking weak yet again as it fails to clear overhead ATR resistance:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up slightly going in the London open where it should get a bit busy with the return of US traders from their long weekend, plus a packed economic calendar providing catalysts. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 is still showing price wanting to get past the 4200 point level but that megaphone pattern may negate further rises for the time being:

The economic calendar is packed tonight with German unemployment, EZ core inflation and then US manufacturing PMI results for May with a few Fed and BOE speeches sprinkled about.

 

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Comments

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Wonders never cease. Embittered tall poppy cutter local at NCC was waiting for me, the only one out ,after catching a closeout b0mb from way out the back. Clapping his hands in congrationary cognition.
      Maybe just buttering up as left two (free) cordless drills for him as days ago promise. While at the cafe phone 2 jobs. Lucky I installed a thermal overload earlier as the operator put pineapples in the grinder tripping it out.
      it out .The other welding job was due to patrons be using drunk going down the stairs.
      Didn’t h have any traffic issues near the Kangy Angy truck accident on .my way to Olld Bar this afternoon.

      • The Travelling Phantom

        Your way to old Bar?? I thought you avoid alcohol 🙂
        Nothing wrong with a shandy though

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Ph spell check giving more grief today.
        1/ waiting for me this morning.
        2/ left drills on verandah for him.
        3/They (iimmigrant workers) loaded the machine before turning it on .
        4/ patrons being drunk.

    • She explained in a TikTok video how she “cooked the pork slowly in the oven, adding the sauce every so often so the flavour goes all throughout the meat.”

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Legacy Shae is working hard for her citizenship
      in NZ …..by the looks of that photo her tradie is getting lots of pork ……he better enjoy it as she will be heading to straya soon as the passport comes through

    • Yeah, I have been following this story. It is just weird. Like ol’ Gerry was on the juice channelling his inner Trump.

    • Read –

      Profile photo for Ed Taboada
      Ed Taboada
      ·
      13h ago
      Works in Infectious Disease & Public Health (2006–present)

      Will we ever truly get to the bottom of the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic? Highly unlikely…
      Profile photo for Ed Taboada
      Ed Taboada
      ·
      14h ago
      Works in Infectious Disease & Public Health (2006–present)
      If Donald Trump and Republicans were so certain back in 2020, that the lab leak theory for the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was so real, why didn’t Trump order an investigation to verify this?

      If Donald Trump and Republicans were so certain back in 2020, that the lab leak theory for the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was so real, why didn’t Trump order an investigation to verify this?

      https://coronavirus.quora.com/?__ni__=0&__nsrc__=4&__snid3__=21941671031&__tiids__=29273382

      • “To me it was very obvious. I said it very strongly and I was criticized and now people are agreeing with me, so that’s okay.”
        🙂

        • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

          As what is described as being very hard to track down in the pathetic link and that Chyna has not done a single thing to help in any way whatsoever it’s 50/50 at the very least the virus came from an already dubious Chinese virology lab that just happens to be exactly where the Wuflu first emerged

      • SweeperMEMBER

        Even if it wasn’t leaked from a lab, China is still culpable.
        The virus was clearly in Wuhan in at least Oct-19 probably earlier. It could easily have been contained in Hubei at least for
        a longer period to give the rest of the world time to study and prepare for the virus. Reparations are totally justified.

        • Reading comprehension tonight – ?????

          There is absolutely zero means to evaluate origin at this moment, takes over a decade in many cases, issue is geopolitical hot potato at the moment which means propaganda supersedes science, U.S. has finger prints in China including Fauci et al, those that bang on about natural reservoir should note all virus that have been around for decades with out that discovery being made, et al …

          Just read all the comments and additional threads …. nothing … absolutely nothing points to a defining origin at the moment and those that press the issue are engaging in Agnotology.

          • Grow up kid … you ever hear about this thing called Sovereignty and it seems you can’t read either … per se if it started in the U.S. do you think they would just give anyone what they wanted – ????? You know the country that does not recognize international laws, invades whomever it wants, supports some of the nastiest governments if they do their bidding and attempts to remove any democratically elected government that does not obey …

            With covid I’ll stick to the scientific approach and leave the geopol out …

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            lol there is no scientific approach available as per your link cos Chyna won’t allow it
            Your link actually described how it could be done if Chyna helped
            LOL
            Wow 😳

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            That’s some desperate stuff there mate
            Nothin. All LMMAO’s ya want. And Wired. Lol

          • Desperation is attempting to concoct a narrative based on limited knowledge and ignorance to ex ante create a preferred[tm] outcome. Confusing a outbreak vector with origin whilst simultaneously forgetting about U.S. involvement in this bio sector going back to Bush Jr and even after Trumps antics investor money flows were still on going, but yeah, China released a bio weapon on its own just to mess with everyone else and spoil the neoliberal party.

            Anything to distract the unwashed from the epic failures of neoliberalism to acknowledge fat tailed risk [waves at GFC] for short term personal profit … rim shot …

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            You’re just being deliberately obtuse skip.
            Sure liberalism and its main champion, the US, sucks.
            And sure the US is also involved in all kinds of grubby bio-weapons research just like the Russians, Chinese and whoever else are.
            But It seems highly likely this Covid thing came out of China and the unusual nature of it does suggest an engineered virus.

            Having said that, IF the origin of this virus is from the Wuhan laboratory, I think it less likely that some individual or the CCP itself has released this virus with malicious intent,…but rather it probably got out accidentally.
            China is not known for it’s high quality control standards.

            Most likely, IMHO, it was the guy with the job of incinerating the laboratory animals used to experiment with these viruses decided to make a few bucks on the side by selling a batch of them to some vendor at the local wet market.
            He might have been doing it for years!

            Thats this dumb plumbers Occam’s Razor take on the matter.

        • SweeperMEMBER

          I’m saying it doesn’t matter where it originated (lab or otherwise)
          It clearly took off in Wuhan in at least Oct-19. They denied there was human to human transmission, silenced doctors trying to raise alarm, they kept international travel open until March, allowed Chinese New Year travel to go ahead, that stupid worlds largest banquet in Wuhan, complained when states closed their borders, stockpiled PPE from the developed world, sold faulty medical equipment back to the West.
          The reason HK and Taiwan managed the virus so well was because they learn’t from SARS and didn’t believe a word the regime said.

          “propaganda supersedes science”

          Not propaganda. There is a timeline that anyone can check. Denying any culpability is anti-scientific.

          • Nothing you said is Empiric or established fact just based on the nature of the virus and the lack of information about it, its been a political football during the U.S. presidential election and a fall back for those like Boris and Co et al that went for the herd immunity path at onset due to ideology and not science. Whilst were at it we now have how many compromised cough … health agency’s [thx neoliberalism] that have accepted its airborne.

            Don’t do a pft and bastardize science with ideological or political post hoc narratives to achieve a goal.

          • pfh007.comMEMBER

            Doing a Pfh007 is always recommended as it leaves poor Skippy squealing and sprouting ever more confused gibberish and conspiracy theories.

            “Nothing you said is Empiric”?

            Huh that is rich coming from you who is attempting to defend China’s performance re COVID-19 by arguing that the USA does bad things too.

          • Not gaslighting is got noting to do with supporting China, seems a feature in the avoidable deaths the U.S. due to it ie. the Boris / Cummings theater is a good show … and how could we forget Trump and his flock …

    • The Travelling Phantom

      But they don’t have iron ore or sell their housez to them for ever risings prices

    • The Travelling Phantom

      Well if they need to reopen I’m happy to electrify it, would you plum it?👍💪

    • The old boy stayed at the old one at Manly in the 70’s. Now it is a nice little resort. We went there for his 70th and he could look down across the bay to where he was stationed when he was drafted for nam. (He was lucky in that he was next boat out.) When I asked him how quarantine was he said it wasn’t too bad. If you have the nurses money they’d buy you the paper, beer and cigarettes. There obviously wasn’t a pandemic on at the time.

      https://www.qstation.com.au/

    • The Quarantine Act of 1908 helped shape us as a nation (@footsie I came to this view after visiting Q Station). I tried to find an essay online that talked about this but they were all written by bullsh!tters.
      Now replaced with a risk-based Biosecurity Act. It strikes me reading Taleb before Mr Ego disappeared on Twitter that risk-based models are rubbish because they don’t deal with Black Swan events, which surely must be the biggest risk in biosecurity.

      • Concur and said so in response to savvy above … its a key feature of neoliberalism IMO … aka what Abbott said …

    • The Travelling Phantom

      May I dare to say this website famous for being the “contrarian view” so can I get on of the free subs you’ll get ?👍🙂

    • Search youtube for mouse trap and you can find all sorts of simple traps that can catch and mice at a great rate.

      Many are based on a large bucket of water, with a hinged flap on top. The mouse goes onto the trap to approach food, and the flap rotates and drops the mouse into the water where it drowns.

      IMO these traps would solve the mouse problem far better than strong poisons sold by a large corporation for profit.

    • The Travelling Phantom

      Didn’t get the feather,
      The other 2:
      Are you leaving melbs due lockdown?

  1. Interesting conversation with my old man on the weekend that kind of speaks to generational differences with money and wealth (and the ever present spectre of catholic guilt).

    Six months ago, mum and dad generously gifted a not-insignificant sum of money to us to help with a home loan deposit. Now, my folks are in their mid-late 70’s. They’re working-middle class devout Catholics , 5 kids (1 deceased), PPOR in Sydney probably worth >$1.5m, in the current market, they are on defined benefit pension plus draw down on superannuation assets and cash in excess of the threshold for the aged pension asset test.

    They have been frugal all their life – we never had flashy things, but we never struggled growing up. Dad was a clerk in the public service and Mum only worked part-time as a carer once we were all in school. Dad got a VR at 58 after 28 years in the old NSW Dairy Corporation and retired and mum continued to work until about 6 odd years ago just because she enjoyed it. So typical of their generation they can enjoy a long retirement and live quite comfortably with a good amount of wealth just through having 1 full-time job and being able to buy their own home.

    Now, when I asked if they could help us, I made sure that a) it wouldn’t affect the asset test such that they would have to apply for the aged pension and, b) my siblings knew about it and were ok with it and the will was amended to reflect that the amount (indexed to CPI) would be deducted fro my share of the estate as it was a gift, not a loan.

    I encouraged them to seek independent financial and legal advice which they did, and it was all sorted. The money was in the bank just sitting there (reserved for the renovations they’ve been talking about doing for the last 15 years).

    Fast forward to the weekend and the oldies were up from Sydney visiting us. Went out fishing with dad (got a good feed of snapper and Maori cod) and on the drive home he hits me up and says, “do you think you could pay some of that money back?”

    I says, “Why? Are you having problems?”

    He says, “No, it’s just that we were earning a bit of interest off that money and now we’ve had to adjust the income we get from our super to even it out.”

    “Ok, but it’s not that much that you have to claim the aged pension now, is it?”

    “No, we’re alright there.”

    “And it’s not going to impact you in the next 10-20 years if you’re still kicking on?”

    “No, we’ll be right.”

    “And if one or both of you need to go into care? Have you still got enough for that?”

    “Yeah, that’s all sorted. You kids won’t have to worry about that.”

    “So, what’s the problem then?”

    “Well , your mother feels a bit guilty, and I agree, because we have to now draw down a little bit more on the super and we want to leave as much of that as possible to you kids.”

    “But that’s your super dad. That’s what it’s for. Enjoy it”

    “Oh, we don’t need all of it. It will be better left to you kids.”

    *Sigh* “Bloody hell. Alright, well, how much do you want us to pay back.”

    “Oh, whatever you can afford.”

    “Over how long?”

    “As long as you like. And if you can’t pay for a few months, then that’s fine. We’ll record all the payments so when the time comes, the will will be adjusted.”

    “Tell you what dad, you and mum figure out how much you would like us to pay back and we’ll work something out.”

    “Ok, that sounds like a good idea.”

    With financial savvy like that, it makes you wonder how they got so rich!

    I doubt I’ll be having the same conversation with my son when I’m that age.

    • Nice yarn, thanks for tapping that out.
      Families and money, sigh.
      What’s a Maori cod?

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Very similar to Maori Feijoa actually. Which I participated in as a child. Accidentally. Allegedly.