ALP maintains narrow poll lead over Coalition

Roy Morgan has released polling, taken over the weekends of June 12/13 & June 19/20, showing that Labor remains ahead 50.5% to 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis:

Two-party preferred polling

ALP maintains slight lead.

ALP support is now 50.5% (down 0.5% points since early June) cf. L-NP on 49.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis following Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s overseas trip to the G7 in the United Kingdom according to the latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.

If a Federal Election were held now it would be too close to call with a higher than usual 7.5% of electors undecided about who they would vote for and with the real possibility Australia would have a hung Parliament for the first time in nearly a decade. Normally around 3-4% of electors can’t say who they would vote for.

However, primary support for Labor continues to languish at only 34.5%:

Primary support for the L-NP increased 1.5% points to 41.5% compared to the ALP on 34.5% (down 1% point). Greens support was up 0.5% points to 12%.

Support for One Nation was up 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others has dropped by 1.5% points to 8.5%.

Importantly, the Coalition remains ahead in the key battleground state of QLD:

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP’s national two-party preferred lead is built upon a strong two-party preferred result in Victoria with the ALP 55% (up 1.5% points since early June) cf. L-NP 45% (down 1.5% points)…

However, the L-NP leads in Australia’s other three largest States. In NSW the L-NP holds a narrow two-party preferred lead of L-NP 51% (up 1.5% points since early June) cf. ALP 49% (down 1.5% points)…

The L-NP has its strongest result In Queensland with a large lead of L-NP 56% (up 3% points since early June) cf. ALP 44% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis…

In Western Australia the L-NP holds a two-party preferred lead of L-NP 52% (up 1% point since early June) cf. ALP 48% (down 1% point)…

The ALP holds a two-party preferred lead in the smaller States with the ALP 52% (up 2.5% points since early June) cf. L-NP 48% (down 2.5% points) in South Australia, a swing of 1.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and in Tasmania the ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43% – a swing of 1% point to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Labor’s road to victory is simple: take a lower immigration platform to the election and take a hard line on China.

Does it want to govern or not?

Unconventional Economist

Comments are hidden for Membership Subscribers only.