Net overseas migration moves further into negative

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for March 2021, which confirmed that net migration into Australia remains firmly negative.

There were 23,560 net permanent & long-term departures in the 12 months since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, representing the first time that net arrivals have been negative since the series commenced in 1976:

Net migration into Australia

For the first time since WW1, Australia has lost migrants.

The monthly net permanent & long-term arrivals data is strongly correlated with the official net overseas migration (NOM) data published later by the ABS, which is only current to September 2020. The next chart plots these two series together, which suggests annual NOM will also soon turn negative:

Net overseas migration

Australia’s annual net overseas migration will soon turn negative.

Indeed, Tuesday’s federal budget projected negative NOM of -96,600 in 2020-21 and -77,400 in 2021-22:

Budget NOM projections

The federal budget projected negative NOM in 2020-21 and 2021-22.

No wonder the business lobby is squealing for a reboot of the mass immigration program. It cares about three things above everything else:

  1. More customers to sell to;
  2. Lower labour costs (wages); and
  3. Lower taxes.

Mass immigration meets the first two of these needs. Similar applies to the edu-migration industry, which hitched itself to the mass immigration train via international students.

Sadly, the interests of ordinary Australians are largely ignored by our captured politicians, Treasury and mainstream media.

Unconventional Economist
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