Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A muted tone across risk markets here in Asia with the lack of a lead forthcoming from Wall Street due to the long weekend holiday in the US partly to blame. Currency markets are seeing a mild reduction in USD strength coming from Friday’s volatile session, although gold remains nice and calm above the $1900USD per ounce barrier.  Bitcoin continues its flameout and has begun to selloff again, heading below the $35K level with the target below at $30K not that far away:

The Shanghai Composite is up 0.2% going into the end of May month rebalancing, currently just over 3600 points while the Hang Seng Index is taking back its Friday gains, currently down 0.6% at 28954 points.  Japanese stocks are also in retreat mode with the Nikkei 225 taking half of its previous session gains, down 1% to 28860 points as Yen is bought up slightly after the Friday night run on the USDJPY pair as it returns below the handle after being extremely overbought:

The ASX200 is holding on with a minor loss, down only 0.2% to start the trading week still well above the 7100 point level, closing at 7161 points, while the Australian dollar has gapped higher, heading back above the 77 handle vs USD , but this was due to the oversold nature on Friday night and could prove transitory:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are down 0.2% going in the London open where it will be a quiet night given the US holiday with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to get on with past the barrier around the 4200 point level but that megaphone pattern may negate further rises for the time being:

The economic calendar starts quietly although we have German inflation figures to worry about first up tonight, with the RBA meeting tomorrow afternoon a key event to watch out for.

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  1. The Travelling Phantom

    “Trying to increase inflation is like lighting a candle in a dark room full of petrol.”
    BoomEngineering wise words

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Trying to increase inflation is like a staffer farting in a room full of politicians.

      Sure, the stink gets larger, but it adds very little value and no one can be sure where it came from.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      He’s claiming victory?? Geez, I’d love to read the info that was going to come out on Wednesday. For Porter to back down so easily it must be very nasty indeed.

      Anyhow, I thought defo laws in Straya meant the media always lost. He really sucks at this law stuff. On both sides.

    • Duke_WellingtonMEMBER

      As much as you may wish, and as much as one journalist from the ABC wishes – the fake rape stuff just isnt going to win that next election.

      • RomulusMEMBER

        Fake rape stuff? Didn’t know you were there and are a definitive authority on whether it happened or not?
        Have a look at the state election in WA – should be very interesting.

        • Silvio Gesell

          Ironic considering the self anointed authorities commenting on this site, looking for their little pat on the head like trained dogs, accusing others of being ‘rape apologists’ for not divorcing freedom with responsibility.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            It’s “divorcing freedom from responsibility”.

            But do keep trying, darling.

            Yep: I’ll need to explain. Divorcing freedom with responsibility would involve people separating themselves from freedom by acting more responsibly or by choosing more responsibility – clearly not your point.

      • Well we won’t know if it did or didn’t happen . But I assume and hope CP is now toast.

        I do 100% agree coalition are not going to lose the next fed election.


        Vote 1 Property UP! and Rape Party! Strayans would lap it up. Or have i become too cynical..?

    • C'est de la folieMEMBER

      I would have thought he has to go, and has to go soon, and that that would mean our beloved government is going to have to go soon to the polls – right as it appears their vaccination policy has been a player in Covid getting a toehold in Melbourne.

      Right at the moment the once was debater could ostensibly face questions about who he has porked and how willing they have been every time he sets foot in the public domain. He cant really come out and slag off anyone apart from the ABC because in doing so he will only gaslight the constituency (women) he has already been party to alienating. He could have continued the legal war with the ABC to try and maintain credibility up to the election, but now he has thrown in the towel he is an ex rooster who now wanders the aisles as a feather duster. I reckon we will get the ‘not recontesting’ announcement within days.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        What happens on the Chesterfield stays on the Chesterfield……….nudge nudge …wink wink ….

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Harmonic-Noise-Reduction (HNR) Ear-buds?

      Edit: That should have read Harmonica…

        • Urgh brain fog from chronic fatigue syndrome is guaranteed to make you look like an idiot at times! I did even wonder about the #in the url but didn’t quite put it all together.

          Anyway I got there eventually. Yay me.

        • Lolz. I did wonder about the #. Got there eventually. CFS brain fog is a bitch to live with sometimes. I was so tired after 2 hours driving and 6 hours cracking garlic yesterday getting it ready for planting (yes we are way behind schedule).

  2. So the 2 child policy didn’t last long. I remember talking to many of my female students in China before I left (when they were talking about introducing the 2 child policy stage) and whilethere were a few middle age women and some younger women who said they wanted a second child, most said they’d stick with one. I guess the women of China by and large resisted the banishments to have more kids (most cited exorbitant cost of living and careerpressures as reasons to stick with one and done) and tptb are sh1tt1ing bricks about a collapse in population profile given that they’ll never accept migration.
    I have my doubts that the 3 child policy will make a material change in things

    • The FNG.MEMBER

      Its not so much that they wont accept migration but there is really only one country on the planet that can supply young people (since almost everywhere is aging) in the quantities needed to make a difference, approx 200m, and that’s India. Such a massive diaspora from one place isnt a migration, its an invasion.

      • Actually I beg to differ. Current China does not want migrants per se. They are too risky as most people would bring in views that are opposed to the politics of the CCP. In addition the Chinese people have some very very rigid ideas about what being Chinese is, and accepting into their civilisation migrants is not something they would be able to do easily, and they would not be trusted which is going to be a huge issue going forward. Absorb an ethnic group through territorial expansion, no problems, they’ve got a lot of experience with that over time. but not migration in it’s modern incarnation.

        The trafficking of Asian females who look similar to Han (so probably not Indians) from poorer countries for the tens of millions of ‘bare branches’ (males with no hope of having a wife), is a different story and is unofficially tolerated.