Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Stock markets are on the rebound here in Asia in-line with the BTFD crowd on Wall Street overnight, trying vainly to fill a hole from the impact of the latest US CPI print earlier in the week. The USD is pulling back slightly going into the London session against everything, including gold but definitely not Bitcoin which remains on the ropes after its abandonment by Tesla and the Dogemaster Musk:

The Shanghai Composite is bouncing back hard, up over 1.6% going into the close, while the Hang Seng Index is also heading higher, up nearly 0.8% to 27960 points. Beleaguered Japanese stocks are bouncing back the hardest however, with the Nikkei 225 closing 2.4% higher at 28084 points as the USDJPY is leaning back after its CPI-induced breakout, still above the 109 handle but losing momentum:

The ASX200 was able to stave off its own mild selloff, gaining some 0.4% to close the week out above 7000 points, but only just at 7014. The Australian dollar is finding a little bit of life later in the session with a tiny bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on the four hourly chart suggesting a possible breakout later tonight as it may have found a bottom here:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are slowly finding traction here after the big Wall Street bounceback with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to extend above the key 4120 former support level:

The economic calendar finishes the week with US retail sales and Michigan consumer sentiment.

Have a good weekend and stay safe!

 

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Comments

  1. BradleyMEMBER

    Indian repatriation flight in tatters as Covid stops half from boarding and Singapore goes into lockdown for a month.
    Happy Friday!

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Happy Friday?,…Pffft!

      One of my Friday arvo drinking buddies rings me at 4 pm to find out where I am and I depressingly have to tell them all im still on the roof of of a commercial building in bloody Springwood.

      The mate is on speaker phone and I hear them all laughing at my distress at still being at work this late on a friday!

      Their laughter makes me feel sad.
      Im only just packed up now.
      😪

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Ermo ………..,was out your way today

        Melrose park ….( the bit I saw from Victoria road )

        “LATEST RELEASE
        It’s time to live your best life. To breathe easy and get physical. To put self-care and happiness first. Discover apartments that enhance your wellbeing at Melrose Park Village.”

        Well to me it looks like a pile of sh1tty cardboard boxes piled on top of each other ……..

        Never in the field of human endeavour have words so betrayed reality ……

        Bye bye straya …………

        • Sounds bloody racist to me… how dare they deny them access to Medicare due to ill health!

      • “There are at least 9500 Australians in India registered with DFAT as wanting to return, with more than 650 classified as vulnerable. They include 173 children separated from their parents”.

        Here’s a f_king brilliant idea….”Hey honey, in the midst of a global pandemic, let’s send the kids to a country with a third-world quality healthcare system…”

        • They are probably living with grandparents while parents work in oz on ‘student’ visas

          • It’s not an Australian cultural practice to leave your kids in another country so you can work. That’s an Indian practice. Are these people Indian or Australian?

            Still confuses me why we give citizenship to people who identify much more with their birth culture than that of their adopted home. They want all the privileges of the passport but not the responsibility to integrate.

      • Ritualised FormsMEMBER

        I have actually had a different take on that put to me recently. I am not saying it is inherently forgivable but…

        There is a very long standing culture in India as I understand things – maybe some Indians here may care to refute or let us know their opinions – of having children spend most of their time with their grandparents, so that Mums and Dads can work. I can sort of buy that, it is fairly common across the world.

        I was very reliably told just recently that sending the kids to India to do just that is a fairly common thing to do, particularly for those who for whatever reason cant afford to bring their parents to Australia. If you think about the cost of Australian childcare that may have considerable logic (particularly when added to Australian accommodation costs and energy costs).

        Lord only know the story of those kids awaiting repatriation, but if it is something like the above it may make some sense, particularly if the kids have been trapped there as opposed to flying over for a holiday with nana and grandpa in recent months..

        • I suspected as much, but at what point is it not ok to put your economic concerns ahead of your child’s safety?

        • I haven’t heard such in my Indian circles. Possible, but have not heard.

          Although I hear this practice is fairly common among Chinese Australians.

        • @rf can confirm this is common. Daughters boyfriend spent 1st 4 years in Punjab with Grand Parents in early 2000’s.
          Very close with his 2 grandmas as a result & quite stressed as he can’t get back to see them as they’re getting older & CV19 ripping through the place.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Thank goodness the best ever managers (LNP) are running this operation at both ends.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Every flight from there has had folk supposedly tested and cleared for Indian wuflu and testing positive on arrival. How come now it’s being picked up before leaving?

      • The airlines asked for proof of a test rather than conducting a test. So what do you do to get access to oz healthcare if COVID +?? Buy a fake test result.

    • Open the gates and lower increase the (transmission) rates. That fix teh thing. How good is Strya!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      “We’re not at the breaking point, unlike the Indian health care system,” he said. “So yes, it means that there is a risk, obviously, of community transmission. That is a risk that we need to get to come to grips with.”

      Come to grips with. No, f#ck off.

      • Well said. Why should the rest of the country be screwed over so someone can travel. I don’t care if they are Australian born IPL cricketers or Indian born Australian passport holders. The last case in Vic was an Indian born guy who went back for a marriage. A fkn marriage in the midst of a global pandemic.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      We don’t want that Indian strain let loose here, it’s brutal I’ve been told. Indian friend at work keeps telling me get that Pfizer jab ASAP as it’s coming here. So he’s not even an Australian citizen yet he qualifies for the fckn jab cos he’s daughter was a dental assistant for 4 weeks last year. I’ve fckn paid taxes here for the last fckn 25 fckn years and yeah I CANNOT FU CKING GET THE FU CKING JAB FU CK YOU AUSTRALIA FU CK THIS COUNTRY

  2. Singapore is raci5t!

    Honestly, was it ever going to be any other way? It’s starting to become obvious that the less merit an issue has for the general Australian public then the more vociferous the media will promote the issue as being in the interest of the Australian public or a defining moment of Australian character.

    Note the Fiji has also gone in lockdown. I’m sure that’s unconnected to repatriation of “Fijians” from India.

    • Col. Rabuka did have a point – the terms of the British protectorate suggested the Brits needed to take the Indians with them when they left ….

  3. SweeperMEMBER

    So now we know…. Tether has less than 4% cash backing Tethers. What a train wreck of a market.

        • Barry R. was all over this and I linked to it not long ago and btw what market operatives on a suggestion ‘prosecuted futures’ which as no productivity or physical attachment besides consuming energy and commodities to grind out code … largely front run by money laundering and illegal trade.

          Yet all that blockchain can’t stop people from running of with billions of others property[tm] ….. chortle …

          • SweeperMEMBER

            Agree.
            the irony in all this is that the thing the exchanges and Tether and the people running them clearly value the most is….fiat
            ie. they are bending over backwards to prove that they have more fiat on their balance sheet. Why? If crypto is a superior currency why would that be?

            The whole edifice is supported by a tiny amount of real money, with no access to the banking system, let alone the CB.
            How do people think this can end well?

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            Agree ….imagine the real dosh that has been leached out of the system already ……as the computers whirr away computing the “value “ of the crypto ..,,,,,
            This will be in the Harvard case studies in 2036 as a classic for sure .

          • Noted a few weeks back that the whole system has massive liquidity issues. If everyone runs for the door the processing limits means transactions cannot execute, there is not enough real cash to cash out and cold storage of tokens by exchanges means only about 10% of volumes could be called upon at any given time.

            As I said then, the question for crypto owners is when do you cash out. My view is that if you get caught in the stampede you risk losing it all and due to no regs in Australia the government will just say “meh”.

    • Lord DudleyMEMBER

      “So now we know…. Tether has less than 4% cash backing Tethers. What a train wreck of a market.”

      It’s an absolutely epic scam! So brazen and transparent. And yet the rubes STILL pumped money in. At this point, my hat is off to those who pulled this off. There’s a point where brazenly scamming rubes becomes artistry, and they’ve reached it! Good for them!

    • Strap a pergola to the side, park them not far from a nice school and shops….investors are coming back into the market, don’t you know?

  4. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Viva outsourcing! We’re as busy as a Plumber on a Friday afternoon, on a roof in Springwood!

    (Still wishing I’d learnt to Plumber. 😀)

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      All you need to do is learn to lean off to one side while looking at a piece of piping embedded in something (preferably while holding a very well used steel pen and a diary) and say: ‘That’s not good. X is missing.’ or ‘Y shouldn’t be there, it should be…’. and then send some random guy to do the job for you 5 days later for a third of the quote. Simples.

      My favourite is ‘If we do it that way it doesn’t need council approval.’.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      LOL unbelievable

      I honestly cannot remember an article or time when immigrants weren’t complaining, seriously I can’t remember anything positive ever

  5. SweeperMEMBER

    “But now we have a new crop of financial types, especially, as I said, people associated with crypto, who don’t know about any of that and, as so often happens with money people, assume that they already know everything. So we’re having a fresh infestation of monetary cockroaches, and everything has to be explained again”

    sometimes Krugman is way off base. Other times (as above) he nails it. The inflation hysteria is driven by crypto marketing and millennial/libertarian ignorance.

    • Learn what? That the system is rigged and will smack you in the butt? Millennials already know that, better than any generation before them. Krugman can eat a d÷ck. Him and his ilk have economically shafted the generation he now has the hide to berate. Investing in crypto isn’t the cause, it’s a symptom of a generation and class with no choice but to get rich investing in vapor, because it’s about as tangible as the integrity of Krugman’s imaginary other world where equity, opportunity and rewarded toil supposedly exist.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        I get your frustration with the neoliberal epoch. But, crypto makes no sense.
        It’s almost as though, all of the worst features of the neoliberal era have been distilled into the most idiotic scheme:
        reward those who produce nothing and sell empty boxes, avoid regulation, tax, market garbage & demonize the government etc. etc.
        And it’s because they are fixated with meme’s and exaggeration, shortcuts and googling answers rather than.. thinking – for example yes Krugman has made mistakes around free trade etc. – but he was spot on on austerity and calling out the money cranks
        it is idiotic. And it will blow up in the millennials face. Musk isn’t going to go bankrupt when bitcoin goes to zero, but the millennial who bought crypto on their credit card and can’t pay their rent may well do so.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          Only if they got in late.

          A lot of people have made a lot of money on throwaway investments. Where to now is anyone’s guess.

  6. New Zealand new housing construction: What lessons are being learnt from Selwyn District Council adjoining Christchurch ? …

    Canterbury councils taking on extra staff for surging consents … Adam Burns … The Press / Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/residential/300308038/canterbury-councils-taking-on-extra-staff-for-surging-consents

    Surging numbers of new home consents have councils in the wider Canterbury region mobilising extra staff to cater to unprecedented demand. …

    … The situation was significantly heightened further north (from Ashburton District Council) as a record number of applications in the Selwyn district continued to flood in.

    The Selwyn District Council confirmed a mammoth 372 building consent applications were received in March followed by another 264 in April. …

    … concluding …

    … The council had met with industry professionals to launch a professional partnership programme to help expedite the consenting process.

    “Professionals, such as designers, builders, developers or building companies, will be able to apply to become council’s partners if they meet the criteria,” a spokesperson said.

    “Once they join the programme they will be able to have their consents fast-tracked as long as they meet, and continue to meet, certain criteria.”
    .
    .
    … Take particular note of the standard industry measure, the ‘consent / approval rate per 1000 population per annum’ … and Selwyn Council performance in particular … reported every month with Statistics New Zealand building consent information …

    Building consents issued: March 2021 … Statistics New Zealand

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/building-consents-issued-march-2021

    … Refer Statistics New Zealand consents rate history graph … starting March 1966 …

    Estimated number of new homes consented per 1,000 residents up in June year 2020 … Statistics New Zealand

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/estimated-number-of-new-homes-consented-per-1000-residents-up-in-june-year

    … Extrapolating both Australia (23,176 March dwelling approvals … population clock 25.772 million) and New Zealand’s March dwelling consent / approval figure (4,218) … and expressing them on an annual basis, illustrates that consented / approved for March at about 10.8 units per 1000 population per annum for Australia … New Zealand 9.9.

    … Selwyn District Council, adjoining Christchurch to the south, very much leads the way in residential building consents / approvals within Australia and New Zealand. …

    … Culture and attitudes are the key factors..

    … Selwyn District Council’s consistently high performance has been well known for years …

    Banal business naivete on politics (and the RMA and Councils) … Stephen Franks blog (February 2015)

    https://www.stephenfranks.co.nz/banal-business-naivete-on-politics-and-councils/

  7. MathiasMEMBER

    One of the things I’ve discovered, is Evil and Humor tend to go hand in hand.

    When you look at various deceptions, its always backed up by Mobility and usually, a strong sense of humor. Deceptions about being sneaky, getting away with your crime while laughing about it when you get caught.

    When someones attacking you in a malevolent and evil way ( like China, Liberals or Boomers ), to them, its always often, quite a humorous affair… yet its actually the epitemy of evil. Its just a misuse of powerplay to get away with ones crimes.

    Two powers in this Life. Force and Fraud. Fraud is always about Deception and Deception is very humorous.

    Evil is always funny
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGHwwY08xiU