Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A fairly staid finish to the trading week here in Asia with a truncated session for mainland Chinese and Japanese markets equating to a bit of catch up and not much else, with the former retracing significantly. The USD is trying to firm here going into tonights unemployment print while gold is trying to build its breakout above the $1800USD per ounce level.

Meanwhile in crypto land, Bitcoin has fallen back again after failing to make last nights breakout overnight above the $57K level stick as its been unable to climb back to its Monday night highs nearer to the $60K level:

The Shanghai Composite is selling off fast in the afternoon session, currently down 0/6% to 3418 points, while the Hang Seng Index is making no headway at all, up 0.7%  at 28651 points. Japanese stocks are seeing a similar wait and see attitude, with the Nikkei 225 closing unchanged at 29340 points while the USDJPY remains stuck here just above the 109 handle despite some recent Yen buying:

The ASX200 is having a solid finish to the week, up 0.3% to 7080 points while the Australian dollar is in a slight reversal after being considerably overbought from last night’s breakout that saw it rebuffed before hitting the 78 handle:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up slightly with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to get past the  4190-4200 point level as resistance continues to build there from last week – can it make it stick tonight:

The economic calendar will focus squarely on the US non farm payroll (NFP) aka unemployment rate tonight, which will set the tone for the rest of the trading month til the next one…

Have a good weekend and stay safe!

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Comments

  1. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Lawyerly types, is there any possibility for the owners of Mascot Tower Apartments to launch class action against the NSW Government? Dereliction of Duty or some such?

    • Only if there is a breach of a duty of care or a legal obligation. Mere incompetence isn’t generally enough.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Why about not enforcing Laws and Construction standards?

        Do governments have a duty of care to enforce laws?

        • GramusMEMBER

          I think the underlying issue is not one of enforcement but that the laws are meaningless in their application.
          Private certifier signoff on the basis of self certified works….

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        And the latter is to be expected in the ordinary course of business inasmuch as a procession of gubmints has outsourced almost everything to the private sector as they always do things better?

    • Jingle mail that crap. Banks should own it, they gave the loans and accepted worthless apartments as security for the loan. The what I see it, the banks should get equally burnt.

    • Whats it got to do with the government?
      The further we move away from Caveat emptor in the aide of boosting prices, the worse it gets. If the neighboring developer caused the issue, sue them or get the court to place a lien on the neighboring building as well.

      The idea that governments are going to be ‘expert’ at inspecting properties and therefore ensure a risk-less investment is one of the most absurb myths to be perpetuated in recent times.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      The Chinese couldnt give a shyt where it landed as long as it doesn’t interrupt them eating

    • The Covid-19 grenade was a smarter move because all the world’s left-leaning racism-hyper-sensitive types still think they didn’t throw it over the fence, let alone on purpose!

    • I tell you something, I would not be happy if it landed in my paddock.Just sown, so would definitely not be a happy camper.Would charge $500k, if anyone wanted to drag that out..

  2. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Like, how hilarious is it that every fcking single thing is booming yet the idiots at this blog called problems six months ago. If you haven’t realised how fkn stupid they are after more than a decade of incorrect doom and gloom you deserve your destruction. Yeah. Boom times! (seriously, this blog is fkt)

    Oh, Lower teh interest rates, that will fix thing! (LOLOLOL dìckhêáds)

      • SweeperMEMBER

        Correct.
        10 years later it has been confirmed that crypto has no use case.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            When was price a good guide to future utility/performance?
            In Jan-07 Bear Stearn’s traded at $170.

            Do you realise that the *success* of dogecoin* completely invalidates the bull case for crypto – “store of value, capped supply, replace fiat” blah blah blah.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            yeh.
            because it’s a “financial product” created out of thin air with an implied PDS:
            “Buy me, because there is always a greater fool to sell to”
            It is stunning insight into the stupidity of the species and need for regulation.

        • No use cases? Seriously? It makes it easy to move capital without Government or banks intervening. The block chain will enable a lot of other use cases in future too. NFTs may be dumb, but it may help validate ownership of assets.

          • pfh007.comMEMBER

            Don’t be like that Gavin.

            Poor Sweeper is a romantic and only has eyes for private money issued by bankers.

            Actually, that is not quite right. Sweeper is a bit of a tankie and really loves centralised monetary control so a corrupted cartel between the state and the private banks is tolerable but he would really prefer a nationalised banking system run by public servants. Assuming we are to believe his claims to oppose deregulation of the finance sector by Keating and Howard.

            All this crypto where people freely choose to use private money for whatever purpose they choose is frying a few Sweeper circuits.

  3. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Apparently some of you have a list of baddies that need execution at the end of this game. “Don’t buy now” bloke should be number one. That carnt farkt you all over! LOLOLOL. Boom times!

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        I only take copious quantities of the sociable gear, often across multiple racks. None of that looser stuff bloke!

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Hey, that’s right!

        Wonder if the big guy is dropping standards to do Australian girls.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      How have the “inflation’s going to explode higher, dollar and bonds will collapse” libertarians fared?
      What about “interest rates can’t go negative”

      Or “shortage of housing will lead to higher rents”

      Have you bothered to mark these views to market?

          • SweeperMEMBER

            Why don’t you mark your positions to market?
            Where is the explosive growth in rents?
            btw. I never really commented on housing as an asset as I don’t care. Always perfectly hedged with a house – plus I don’t regard it as an asset… I only noted it was a bubble during the Joe Hockey period, then APRA cooled it off a bit.
            But show me the compound return of the Phil, yourself thesis?
            Rent must be swallowing up GDP at this stage. Landlords are getting 100% of profit share.. no?

          • SweeperMEMBER

            mate.all I’m saying is own your views and mark them to market. You realize you are doubly anonymous.
            Firstly in terms of name, secondly in terms of “humour” to give you an out.
            Yet you are paying out people who have put their names to views and have owned them.
            And you are the “tough guy” who tells others to harden up. Spare me.

          • reusa …

            For my part covid is a game of 52 pick up that will take maybe 5 years to sort out, on top of the non recovery for the unwashed post GFC. As such, anyone laying claim to stuff today must have a deep need too and completely risk adverse, till then.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            too much credit imo Skippy.
            Why wait 5 years. His views on covid are already discredited. Data is in.
            Then there are the views on housing…

          • My view is, this will eventually end and end badly. But until then party on like it’s 1999. Personally taking on $600k of debt ain’t my thing. I’d rather invest in an asset that is in diminishing supply like vintage cars than housing at this point in the cycle. But also buy something with high cost to replace (perhaps buying property below replacement cost in today’s building $$$). Think you’ll be ok.

            https://m.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-cockatoo-136175834
            Example…

      • “shortage of housing will lead to higher rents”
        That happened long ago.
        We still have the shortage, we still have the high rents.

      • pfh007.comMEMBER

        Sweeper!

        Are you on the turps tonight?

        Swinging punches at gold bugs and crypto bugs?

        Talk about diversion from the main game.

        Everyone knows that the gold bugs and crypto bugs thrive in the corrupted dystopian growth medium created by the state / private bank cartel.

        If you want to starve the bugs you gotta stop feeding them and at the moment the international cartel management team are doing exactly the opposite.

        They are the creation of the Banker Lobby so take some responsibility.

        • SweeperMEMBER

          You call banking corrupted.
          Yet you’ve got a non asset with nil intrinsic value dragging in suckers money.
          A meme coin with a dog on it, created as a joke, which is an inflationary coin. And millennials are pouring money into it. It is a disgrace. Munger is right it is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilisation.

  4. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Another long day today. Electrical job then helped my mate installing 2 3m windows on top storey of double storey house overlooking the beach. Then got stung fabrication and weld repairs on a 3 way tipper tailgate. Made the mistake of lining it up when it was made out of alignment to get the dogs entry to line up. Cocky sh welds and thin materials. Must have been skilled shortage immigrants who put the tray together.

  5. TailorTrashMEMBER

    A fairy tale of Sydney

    A friend of the menshaib has a relative who is a bricklayer ……just bought a 4 million dollar house

    How can you do this ?

    Trade up over 3 or 4 houses in the last 7 or 8 years and at each step give the NSW government a big chunk of dosh as stamp duty and ride the equity tiger

    End result is you end up with one house marginally better than the one you started with ….but still just a house
    …and what about the wealth effect. ?…..your house is still only worth marginally more or less than the one a few streets away

    So what am I missing ?

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      The thrill of living the ultimate (and only) Strayan dream and having perpetual bragging rights at barbies of “having had a go and got a go” (the ScoMo edict) and of being a winner who is always a grinner? How good is Straya.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Nigel Tufnel : The numbers all go to eleven. Look, right across the board, eleven, eleven, eleven and…

      Marty DiBergi : Oh, I see. And most amps go up to ten?

      Nigel Tufnel : Exactly.

      Marty DiBergi : Does that mean it’s louder? Is it any louder?

      Nigel Tufnel : Well, it’s one louder, isn’t it? It’s not ten. You see, most blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You’re on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you’re on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?

      Marty DiBergi : I don’t know.

      Nigel Tufnel : Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?

      Marty DiBergi : Put it up to eleven.

      Nigel Tufnel : Eleven. Exactly. One louder.

      Marty DiBergi : Why don’t you just make ten louder and make ten be the top number and make that a little louder?

      Nigel Tufnel : [pause] These go to eleven.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      “includes material that is “scandalous” and represents an abuse of the court.”

      Your parties? Imma go out on a limb and suggest it’s only “scandalous” cause this ccksucker still thinks he has a chance at the PM.

      As for abuse of court, if you bring the suit you can’t be squeemish about the defence against it on behalf of the court. Good luck with any of that

    • Old mate might get more than he bargained for.
      It was all starting to disolve in the haze of memory, and now it’s ll back front and centre.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Indeed – RALOL. Doubt that you would ever hear such puritanical rubbish from our RBA?

        • “The eyes of our citizens are not sufficiently open to the true cause of our distress. They ascribe them to everything but their true cause: the banking system… a system which if it could do good in any form is yet so certain of leading to abuse as to be utterly incompatible with the public safety and prosperity.” — Thomas Jefferson

          Luckily for the ’Honourable’ Moneychangers the serfs don’t know where to point their pitchforks and rather loot Nike stores instead.

    • Michael Stevenson

      And the last and best time African Americans had such a good labour market was under Trump – because he controlled illegal immigration.

      • No such thing as a labour market … you have a structural un-under employed pool due to NAIRU.

  6. United States: April payroll miss …

    “Literally Shocking Data” – April Payrolls Miss Huge, Just 266K Jobs Added Below Expectations Of 1 Million … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/aprill-payrolls-huge-miss-just-266k-jobs-added-expectations-1-million

    “Just Throwing Money, It Doesn’t Work” – Dimon Slams Planned Dem Tax Hikes As “A Little Bit Crazy” … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-throwing-money-it-doesnt-work-dimon-slams-planned-dem-tax-hikes-little-bit-crazy

  7. China Is a Paper Dragon … David Frum … The Atlantic

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/

    U.S. policy makers should look to the future with a little more confidence and a lot more trust in trade, markets, and the superior potential of a free people. …

    … concluding …

    … This is merely a sample of the gathering troubles facing America’s designated strategic competitor and economic adversary. The United States is hardly trouble-free, but if you had to choose either set of troubles, you’d surely rather face the American list than the Chinese. That’s why Biden said, “C’mon, man,” and why U.S. policy makers should look to the future with a little more confidence and a lot more trust in trade, markets, and the superior potential of a free people under an elected government. … read more via hyperlink above …