Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are still relatively quiet and despite the drubbing on tech stocks overnight on Wall Street and the still closed mainland Chinese and Japanese markets, the ASX200 was able to put in a very solid session. Helped by a lower Austrailan dollar of course as the USD remains strong with Euro dropping fast now on the Europe open while in crypto land, Bitcoin has steadied somewhat at the $54K level as it failed to follow its Dogecoin bubble counterpart overnight:

The Hang Seng Index failed to make any headway, losing 0.7% to be at 28366 points as it remains on the ropes here as daily momentum is stuck in the oversold zone, with a likely retest of the March low at the mid 27000s:

The ASX200 was the standout in the region again, lifting 0.4% to close at 7095 points with the Australian dollar failing to clawback its reversal from overnight, smacked back down to the 77 handle going into the London open as medium term pressure at these weekly lows continues to build:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up 0.2% and moving higher, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to fill the losses from overnight and get back somewhere near the 4200 point level, but momentum readings are still pointing negative:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet with some more preliminary services based PMI surveys, a minor Fed speech and the EIA crude oil inventory report.

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Comments

  1. Amid labor shortage, these Pittsburgh companies are filling open roles. Here’s how, using this one weird trick.
    As March drew to a close, Klavon’s Ice Cream Parlor in the Strip District found itself without enough workers for the upcoming spring and summer rush, and it certainly did not have enough workers to open the shop to its desired seven days a week schedule.
    Then, on March 30, the parlor announced it would more than double the starting wage for the roles, going from $7.25 an hour to $15 an hour, a scoop that seemed to captivate workers throughout the region and one that earned a significant amount of local media coverage.
    (open in incognito if you need to know more than they just doubled the pay to get workers and it worked)
    https://twitter.com/PghBizTimes/status/1389614583288041477
    a scoop geddit, is there no limit to the Pittsburgh cleverness.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Rained off for ride this morn so been working non stop since 4.00 am this morn. No rest for the wicked if you throw in a few freebie hrs.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Had some on the hop.
          Just finished. Weights workout next.
          She’s out walking Winnie the Kelpie .

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            triage, nope on both counts.
            Winifred Atwell.
            My mum used to play extremely hard classical and my father ragtime and boogie woogie.

      • The Travelling Albatross

        Oh, hopefully the work on an interesting project boom,
        How’s weellie?

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Weelie is going great guns on goats milk and veggies including carrot tops. Too young for the actual carrots though. He/She loves to snuggle up when away from the hot water bottle.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Yeah another human bone machine which I couldn’t get an electric motor for so repaired the bearing housing, and the cable copper thickness was point.75, (okay for a bedside light but). Replaced it and the plug with 2.5 as well as other work. .Someone converted from 110 volts to 240 volt motor but used the 100 volt motor brake without a transformer so hindered its function . Also used a 420volt rectifier Just received the go ahead to install new motor brake and rectifier ( a safety issue) which I will have to plot dimensions and drill and tap into the end of motor to do so.

          • The Travelling Albatross

            quite interesting! i love the process of problem solving every time doing something new

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      But but but,…Young people don’t want to work!
      I know because 2GB and Sky news told me so.

        • The Travelling Albatross

          is that an indirect invitation for Ermo to make love to you? 😉

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Sunday morning’s come early this week. Sweet! He better not forget the avacados this time.

    • MathiasMEMBER

      Wow. Sounds like Australians will be worth more then roadside trash ready to be replaced by the nearest migrant.

      We might actually have self-esteem again someday.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Well done. So did they raise prices to cover the extra paid in wages? If not, they should have/will later.

    • MathiasMEMBER

      ‘beloved’ my a$$ . They are sydneysiders.

      Let em suffer. There’ll be less drugs and crime in Australia at long last.

      The rest of Australia will go back to doing what Australians always have… ‘Living Life’ without being ripped off or extorted by a foreign state.

  2. pfh007.comMEMBER

    Just another reminder why giving the banks a monopoly on operating deposit accounts at the public central banks is a disgrace.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/australian-regulator-accuses-westpac-insider-trading-12-bln-grid-sale-2021-05-05/

    How much longer are we going to give these crooks the extraordinary privilege of a monopoly on operating accounts at the Central Bank.

    How much longer are our tame economic commentariat going to ignore this outrageous festival of public supplied pork for bankers?

    Allow non-banks and the general public to operate accounts at the RBA and force the banks do some work to attract customers.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Well, the pollies aren’t going to stop little accidents like that while they’re indulging in the same themselves.

      *waves at Dave Sharma and the Beetrooter…and any pollie who has a missus in childcare*

      • what dodgy stuff has Sharma done? He is my local member, I’ll give him a serve next time I see him!!

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          And good mate of Karl Stefanovic apparently? Sharma is to Stefanovic, as Josh Rainbowberg is to Ryan Stokes?

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Apparently he bought a whole bunch of shares in Qantas and CSL just before there were government announcements that would be profitable for said companies.

          • oh really!!

            that’s the problem of being an MP for wentworth and not really making money before going into politics.

            that, and he was a blow-in from the north shore. trading up to Queens Park real estate – must have a big mortgage that needs paying off on a backbencher salary.

          • For the benefit of the non-politicians among us, that is considered insider trading.

      • pfh007.comMEMBER

        No hugs required.

        Swinging for the bleachers is like a warm cup of cocoa!

    • I’m far from convinced by ASIC on this. The details are a bit unclear but it sounds like Westpac were pre-hedging their position.

      • pfh007.comMEMBER

        Pre-hedging their position?

        “.. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said Westpac knew it had won the contract to help two pension funds buy Ausgrid, a state-owned power supplier to millions of people around Sydney, for two hours while it bought A$12 billion of derivative products to support the deal….”

        During the 2 hour period when it knew it had won the contract but the information was not publicly available?

    • Riddle me this pfh. Why do you suppose that with all the commentary I see in the media and broker reports post big bank profit reporting, I never see anything more than the most vague reference made to the subsidisation of said profits at public expense? Most other companies would be written up for any temporary boosts or “one-offs” that artificially inflated their profits, but never the banks.

      I suspect it has something to do with the confident certainty that those supports, explicit or implicit will be applied in perpetuity due to the too big to fail categorisation of those institutions, so why bother treating them as temporary? If so, investors can confidently invest in the Big 4 at almost anytime for a taxpayer guaranteed dividend income stream, as long as one is prepared to ride out the fluctuations that occur from time to time. If long term capital gains are not your concern, fill ya boots!

      • pfh007.comMEMBER

        Banker propaganda is very effective.

        They have managed to both obsfucate how the cartel works and make it appear as though it is some fundamental pillar of liberal democracy.

        Plenty of so so called lefties happily complain about ‘corporatism’ but will still defend the bankers cartel as though it is some bulwark against authoritarian socialism. Skippy is a great example of this specie.

        As for the mainstream economic commentators, they simply cannot conceive of a monetary system that is not built around private banks and they just ignore all the absurd privileges and entitlements extended to the banking lobby.

        • Jumping jack flash

          This!!
          Never forget that banks and their debt are completely unnecessary in a properly functioning economy that primarily transforms raw materials into useful items to sell to the world for profit.

          It is only because banks were given the platform and power to fool everyone into thinking their product, debt, was absolutely necessary, that it became absolutely necessary, like it is today.

          In a properly functioning economy, a shoebox could literally replace a bank. There wouldn’t be interest, but interest is nothing more than simply payment to/from a bank for the use of their unnecessary product. (And there’s not much interest these days anyway). We would do fine without banks and their debt – spending less than what we earned in profit.

        • Cheers. Seems to me that changes to the banking system such as those you suggest will only happen with enough pressure from voters. For various reasons that isn’t likely to come any time soon, even less so with the gatekeepers carefully controlling the messaging. Your musings are worthwhile though, even if they achieve nothing more than to keep a handful of people aware that there are in fact alternatives to the status quo.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      Could easily just be Westpac reducing their exposure to the interest rate swap – eg. market making.
      And I don’t know what being able to have an account at the CB has to do with trading derivatives. Anybody can do that.

  3. So, Stewie MacGill..

    Weird weird story. The kidnapping wasn’t far from us either – just behind Military Road Maccas.

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Went to supermarket today …..and what leaped out at me was tomatoes… at $8.00 per Kg
    ……that seems a tad inflationary ……or can we isolate them from the basket of goods and find reasons why they don’t count …..

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Are luxury items included in the CPI? Pretty sure fruit and vegetables are to be classed as luxury goods. Also see bread and water.

      • The Travelling Albatross

        Johnny would tell you they are not included in GST so be thankful

    • The Travelling Albatross

      $8???????? why? a severe drought or big cyclone hit and no body knew about?
      unless Scomo owns the tomato farm beside Tony’s onion farm, then that’s ok he can profiteer as much he likes

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      The RBA will likely find some “good and cogent” reason why this should not be taken in to account and thus, why their 2% – 3% pa inflation target will never be reached (ditto a reason why their 4.5% unemployment target will never be reached) and thus the cash rate need never rise in Phil Lowe’s still very, very long lifetime.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      A Small Mocha at my local coffee shop is only $3.50 but I always pay Tommy $5 for mine.
      That should be the rate for all Plumbers I say.
      He doesn’t even charge me the “normal price” anymore but his young Lithuanian employee always forgets to charge my Plumbers rate and then thanks me for “Tipping” her when I insist on paying my normal/agreed upon price.
      I dont like tipping but think we should all pay a fair price.
      But now I’m wondering if said employee is pocketing this price difference or passing it on to her boss.
      I kinda like the idea of it going to the person making my coffee but half the time I pay with my card,…so obviously itd be going to the Boss.
      Sigh,…That makes me feel like a class traitor.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Good, good!

      Hopefully they dont hide the inflation. Trot it out for all the business owners to see. There’s no shame in it. Get it rising!

  5. Here is what we have been waiting for…..15 times as virulent the new A.P. strain…….now we will see if we are at the beginning or the end. This will take about four months to get to the US as quite a lot of travel is still permitted between US and India.

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/ap-strain-at-least-15-times-more-virulent/article34474035.ece

    This is getting all over South Asia now…..will be a good test for China quarantine. Apparently there is a bit of a shortage of disposable nappies happening, probably problems in Thailand.

  6. MathiasMEMBER

    ” Under a new federal government initiative, jobseekers will be eligible for up to $2000 in relocation assistance when they complete 40 hours of agricultural work in a fortnight. If workers stay in the job and complete 120 hours over at least four weeks, they will be reimbursed up to $6000 ”

    Neh… Rent and Housing is too expensive. Aussies arent stupid. They know that just ends up going into rent money and doesnt benefit them in anyway.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/6000-carrot-to-help-farmers-attract-workers-fill-shortages/news-story/0a20863278984b5504079dd1aefc4b99

    ” Growers in January revealed they had lost more than $38 million worth of fruit and vegetables harvests due to pandemic-induced workforce shortages. ”

    You buy real estate and cant even find any slaves to work the farm for you. How’s the mortgage? Must be starting to bite. Such a terrible terrible tragedy. Its called ‘ Discretionary Income ‘. If its not going into our back pockets as savings then it doesnt exist. Rent Reimbursements arent Financial Savings. Its just slave labor for money in one hand and away into someone else’s hand. Your better staying on the couch and playing XBox for as much good as that’ll ever do for you. Better yet, go surfing ;p

    If Im not in control of my destiny, then I dont want to be part of it. You wont be looked after and Aussies are starting to wake up to that.

  7. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Shyza, I’m off to Sydney next week – let’s see how the borders react to this case that seems to have come from nowhere! Hope it’s not that pesky Indian super version…….

  8. As prices are administered is it inflation if a monopolist just hikes the price up on a good or service – ?????

  9. MathiasMEMBER

    Ok… so… ScoMo’s about to unleash the Migrant Tidal Wave into Sydney and Melbourne soon. He’s playing his little game of politics to say, ” But we gave em all $6000 and they didnt want to work for us? So we had to resort to migrants “.

    At least there’s job security at ASIO. Plenty of work preventing the next Terrorist Bomb.

    Its tough being a Prime Minister these days. Still, at least when it all goes bad, there’s always Hawaii.

    • Typically for a job to be considered “tough”, you have to actually do something.

      • MathiasMEMBER

        What do you expect them to do? Kill Australians? Put us all in jail? How many Jails you reckon we can afford?

        Australias problems are purely political and Liberals are pushing Australia to see how far its going to go.

        Its like I said many years ago, ” There’s no way in hell this Countrys going to have enough money to fund Boomers retirement “.

        I sympathise with the problem but the way we’ve tried to resolve it and all the corruption we now have going on in Australia is insane. You want to jail every single young person in Australia because they are angry with how they’ve been treated over these past 20 years? You put them in jail then you’ll never get them to pay taxes that way.

        I think why its so hilarious is because its so damn predictable that even a 5 year old could have seen this coming 10 years ago.

    • Michael Stevenson

      Meh, the curve is already starting to flatten out in India. Vaccinating that entire population was never realistic anyway. They should never have even locked down initially – just delaying the inevitable, and we are now in the inevitable.

      By the way on a population adjusted basis – considering the country has 1.3billion people – the current levels out of India are unremarkable.

      But it sure is a relief not to have Indian male gangs roaming every country (I live outside Australia).

      • Problem is, Brazil is living its second inevitable right now. Rinse and Repeat until you have some immunity to the strain(s) in circulation.

        Brazil thought they had that.
        They didn’t.

        When cremations out way deaths by a factor of 30 don’t trust the numbers.

        If everyone just Let It Rip TM. There’d be so many variants we’d end up with wave after wave of deaths bringing forward elderly and weak deaths for the decade. Killing everyone in its way like it has in India for the past fortnight as its healthcare network stalls. The aftermath would be full of long covid sufferers, shattered economies and political chaos, just in time for the main course climate change.

  10. MathiasMEMBER

    Oh dear…

    The NSW branch of the Labor Party has been hit by a cyber attack and confidential documents have been leaked online.

    The hacker group has posted excerpts of documents they claim to have stolen from the party on the dark web, including employment contracts and confidentiality agreements.

    The criminals posted a disturbing ransom note with a demand to “communicate and co-ordinate” within nine days
    https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/hacking/hackers-leak-confidential-documents-from-nsw-labor-party-in-cyber-attack/news-story/233c5df1c52f46c6e16a40d1b8283e62

    So a couple of Labor guys where on a dirty website, there username and passwords got stolen and hackers used it to gain entry into all there other stuff. Yeah, that happens.

    Yep. Little bit of Crime going on in Australia these days.

    More migrants will fix it. That’ll fix it.

    Anyone know of where you can get any cheap Fertilizer? My multicultural mate wants to know lol.

    Hawaii. You could plan a nice little Christmas Trip, maybe? Sounds like a great time to be out of the country.

    • Fritsch free to play and Petracca a Demon for life (also denying Collingwood). Doesn’t get fairer than that except for the flag. Just added grand final guarantee to my membership

      • The Travelling Albatross

        from tanking scandal few years ago to premiership, amazing long journey.. go Dees!

      • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

        Can’t believe he got off. Fending with the elbow all ok now…. petracca great to watch…I’d be happy tying up him too….

  11. SweeperMEMBER

    re. bitcoin:
    “I think I should say modestly that the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization, and I’ll leave the criticism to others” said Munger

    haha that is gold.. and spot on.

    • Yeah the guy that IP’ed [LBO] the destruction of productive capital and the civilization attached to it blinks when confronted with crypto flow of funds taking food off his plate – ????? – errrrrrrr

        • Where do you get that from, none of it is possible without fiat. Just pointing out mungers double standards e.g. potential vol/flow of funds away from his plate.

  12. MathiasMEMBER

    Euthanasia rally held as SA Upper House set to debate bill
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-05/rally-and-palliative-care-funding-push-ahead-of-euthanasia-vote/100117850

    Damnit. Im in the wrong state. Come to Queensland you b*stards. I’ll hold up a sign and say your words. I might say a few more words too but I promise to behave.

    Qld to have euthanasia system by May 2021
    https://www.sheppnews.com.au/national-news/2021/02/24/3311867/qld-to-have-euthanasia-system-by-may-2021

    I knew I lived in the right state.

    Baby Boomers. You arent getting away with this. Your days are numbered.