Standard Chartered with the note. Recall that they were just about the most bullish in the market prior to the release:
Work disincentives likely a future issue, but not in April
There is a lot of discussion on the big forecast miss of April non-farm payrolls (NFP). The consensus was for around 1mn jobs, our forecast was 1.5mn and the outcome was 266,000. Against much commentary in recent days, we doubt that the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits played an important role in April, but we do not underestimate its future impact. We suspect sampling issues in the survey were the main source of the miss but find evidence that child-care issues played an important but secondary role. The run-up in average hourly earnings seems abrupt but is consistent with anecdotal reports of labor shortages.
