And so it begins. Aussie catch-up growth has been very powerful. But it will end and soon in the second derivative. Indeed, maybe it just did. The AIG construction PMI as new orders growth slowed materially:
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Remember that PMIs are directional not positional so some of the components that are in structural oversupply are still well below previous highs in real activity terms, such as commercial and apartments.
For now, they’re getting better more slowly. Soon they’ll be getting outright worse as construction (outside of resi) bogs down into a protracted slump.