Big bank investor mortgages push towards macroprudential

APRA is out with its April mortgage lending figures and the big banks are lifting investor participation in the property boom at a good clip now.

Monthly growth in April was 0.3% and pushing towards levels that APRA last tightened macroprudential rules in 2017. The unemployment rate was around the same then as it is now:

That said, annual growth is still lower than it was then at 0.7% versus 5% in 2017, plus the RBA want to be easier for longer to see “the whites of inflation’s eyes”, so there is no imminent move coming:

All things equal, we’re about a year away from APRA tightening on investors. But that may get pushed out if the commodity price crash I’m expecting plays out faster than reckoned or the implicit tightening of the removal of the TFF slows things more than expected.

Houses and Holes

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