Just to underline how stoopid the Morrison Government has been. Via Morgan Stanley:
COVID-19 Vaccine: US on Track to Achieve Broad Vaccination by Mid-Summer
Our updated simulations suggest that the US can vaccinate the entire eligible population (12+yo) by mid-summer, in-line with our prior estimate. Our increased confidence in the rate and supply of vaccinations to meet a mid-summer target remain seven with potential disruptions to the J&Jvaccine. What is the updated timeline for broad US vaccination? Our previous analysis in early Feb. forecasted that if the daily vaccination rate continued to grow at the same rate, the 7-day average number of daily vaccinations in the US would reach~3M on~March31st. In-line with our predictions, the 7-day average of daily vaccinations in the US turned ~ 3M on April 2nd, suggesting that the ratio of daily vaccinations has been increasing at an early unchanged rate over the past months. Building on our previous analysis, we use the available vaccination data to update our scenarios forecasting when the US can achieve broad vaccination of its population. Similar to our previous analysis, we make the following key assumptions:(1)We consider only the US population aged 12+years (~280M), given that EUA for adolescents of 12+ is expected over the next few months, while we exclude ages below 12 as we do not believe vaccine eligibility will occur for that age group until late 2021/early2022; and (2) We assume that each individual requires 2 doses for full vaccination, rendering our predictions conservative in case 1-dose vaccines are also broadly utilized. Our key take aways include the following:
1.If vaccination rate remains at~3M/day, ~75%/100% of the 560 M doses required will be administered by June/August2021.
2.If vaccination rate increases to~3.5M/day or higher, ~75%/100% of the 560M doses required will be administered byJune/July 2021.
3.All considered scenarios suggest that~50% of the 560M doses required will be administered by early May, if the vaccination rate remains at~3M/day or higher.
In short, the US could vaccinate all of Australia in seven days. Instead, this:
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Arguably, Australia is much easier to vaccinate with its high-quality public health system, much more concentrated population, and much less virus.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
