US could vaccinate Australia in 7 days

Just to underline how stoopid the Morrison Government has been. Via Morgan Stanley:

COVID-19 Vaccine: US on Track to Achieve Broad Vaccination by Mid-Summer

Our updated simulations suggest that the US can vaccinate the entire eligible population (12+yo) by mid-summer, in-line with our prior estimate. Our increased confidence in the rate and supply of vaccinations to meet a mid-summer target remain seven with potential disruptions to the J&Jvaccine. What is the updated timeline for broad US vaccination? Our previous analysis in early Feb. forecasted that if the daily vaccination rate continued to grow at the same rate, the 7-day average number of daily vaccinations in the US would reach~3M on~March31st. In-line with our predictions, the 7-day average of daily vaccinations in the US turned ~ 3M on April 2nd, suggesting that the ratio of daily vaccinations has been increasing at an early unchanged rate over the past months. Building on our previous analysis, we use the available vaccination data to update our scenarios forecasting when the US can achieve broad vaccination of its population. Similar to our previous analysis, we make the following key assumptions:(1)We consider only the US population aged 12+years (~280M), given that EUA for adolescents of 12+ is expected over the next few months, while we exclude ages below 12 as we do not believe vaccine eligibility will occur for that age group until late 2021/early2022; and (2) We assume that each individual requires 2 doses for full vaccination, rendering our predictions conservative in case 1-dose vaccines are also broadly utilized. Our key take aways include the following:

1.If vaccination rate remains at~3M/day, ~75%/100% of the 560 M doses required will be administered by June/August2021.

2.If vaccination rate increases to~3.5M/day or higher, ~75%/100% of the 560M doses required will be administered byJune/July 2021.

3.All considered scenarios suggest that~50% of the 560M doses required will be administered by early May, if the vaccination rate remains at~3M/day or higher.

In short, the US could vaccinate all of Australia in seven days. Instead, this:

Arguably, Australia is much easier to vaccinate with its high-quality public health system, much more concentrated population, and much less virus.

The key to US success? No ScoMo.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. I don’t hold the needle mate. Or a hose. Or a conscience. Or any level of empathy towards other people. Or any background in creating effective government policy. Or any background in executing government policy efficiently.

    But I am a white, male, happy clappy bogan with a media and PR team that numbers 20 … so there’s that going for me.

  2. pfh007.comMEMBER

    The Liberal Party “Making everything as hard as possible”

    Dopey blokes doing what they do best.

    • white men promoted well above their station or ability, for reasons that have nothing at all to do with the effective prosecution of their role or function, doing what they do best.

      there – fixed it for you

        • the Federal LNP cabinet, both current and even more so historically (previous to now) are overwhelmingly white and male.

          • People “hired well above their stations” are historically done so on the basis of meeting quotas, the criteria being being non-male and non-white

          • Well that doesn’t appear to be the issue here, eh Penny. My overall view is the shadow Labor ministry appears a lot broader in perspective.

            be good to see a breakdown of MHR and Senate by life experience/jobs/CV

          • “Broader: is meaningless, and has no value.

            I’m sure the 2007-2013 ALP cabinet was broader than say the 1983-1990 ALP cabinet, but I will assign different qualitative values which probably don’t correlate to ‘broadness’.

      • Sons Of Mary doing what they do best. Red or blue don’t matter…they all wear purple

  3. “The key to US success? No ScoMo.”
    Actually, a homegrown large scale pharmaceuticals industry.
    Ours disappeared long before scummo turned up.

  4. Umm, if you think Australia can reach its remote communities or even just far flung regional areas with a vaccination program in 7 days then you fail to comprehend the basics of logistics let alone the logistics of transporting temperature controlled medication.

    • MountainGuinMEMBER

      Unless he gets journalists offside by attacking them and their company. Oh, wait…

  5. SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

    It’s available at almost every pharmacy now. In addition to the stadium superstations, hospitals and healthcare systems. Doctors offices seem to play a very minor role. This makes sense to me because you don’t need a consultation and doctors are expensive people. The one day record is currently 4.5 million shots, but the current 7 day average is only 3.3 million. There have been enough individual days over 4 million so it should be possible to average 4 million soon enough.

    • My wee brain programmed to associate// call up the scary robotic voice of an army of DALEK’s….Dr WHO circa 1983 EXTERMINATE EXTERMINATE EXTERMINATE…..the vax/hex drama daily fear feed…. VACCINATE VACCINATE VACCINATE

  6. I could see the writing on the wall when Biden transitioned in. Every time I ranted this to anyone close to me they couldn’t conceptualize it. Australia is a luddite and a laggard at whatever we do these days. It’s embarrassing to be called an Australian.

    • That’s the sad truth of it. I honestly feel the same way.
      This limpdikness of those in decision making roles all across all facets of Australian society.

  7. I wouldn’t be surprised that there is some Liberal lobbyist sitting on some GP board that cocked up this idea to use GPs. The idea is so retarded it beggars belief.

    • if you assume that Scotty from Marketing and co desperately wanted to own this, so that they could take 100% of the plaudits for it, then it makes sense.

      GPs, through virtue of their primary funding source (Medicare) are much more closely tied to and therefore influenced (controlled) by the Federal Government; whereas hospitals, clinics and other large-scale health operations are nearly all in the domain of state health systems.

    • It’s a moot point when the vaccines aren’t here to use no matter who injects them.

    • The doctor’s union (AMA) has nearly as tight a grip on the LNP gooleys as the pharmacist’s union and the PCA/IPA. Squirrel grips!

      Obviously that is what gives senior LNP ministers their kicks 🙁

      • You mean the big chain pharmacist’s union, don’t think it pays to be one now days and lets just let that demand education flood the market with product …. then we can have the America billing/access medical [not health] industry right here …. what is the major reason for BK in the USA again – ?????

  8. America has to get everyone vaccinated because so many free range freedom lovers refuse to think collectively for a once in a 100+ year pandemic. Add on the health [extraction business] system is at the end of its proverbial rope, staff are over done and can’t just be replaced with a want ad.

  9. SoMPLSBoyMEMBER

    In *no* way does the organizational bumbling being witnessed here regarding the vaccine rollout reflect upon our capability to organize against any other major threat.
    The great…..and powerful…. ScOZ….has spoken.

    • Absolutely. If China releases Covid 2.0, we’re all screwed.

      Isnt Bill Gates saying, ” This might just be the first of the pandemics coming our way “.

      But we arent facing ScoMo’s real question here. The question of questions which the entire thing revolves around.

      ScoMo’s problem is: ” How can we profit off all these dying Australians? “.

  10. I think Australian Health Services have done really well, actually. In spite of a moronic Leader, they’ve busted a gut to stop Covid blowing out of control and to keep the spread down. I cant imagine how difficult that would have been for them to do. They’ve acted really professionally.

    Its an amazing surprise to me but of all the people I’ve asked, they dont seem to want to die. Hard to believe, I guess. Maybe somethings on TV? Maybe its the Australian fresh air? Maybe its the permanency of it all. The idea of catching covid and dying does seem a little terminal.

    Im not sure if Australias just lucky that its Summer or what the story is. Maybe it might get worse in Winter?

    With the exception to that QLD Naughty Nurse who went for some Nookie down in Byron Bay ( so many rich men and yet so little time ). Who needs STDs when you got Covid? I mean, really, feminism is as feminism does. Who can blame a nurse for being a little naughty these days and doing things men would otherwise be put in jail for?

    Men [email protected] woman. Woman giving men covid. It all evens out in the end.

    I wonder if we will see Covid rise in the next 6 months? That will be interesting to watch.

    • Apart from your continual drivel, point of order – didn’t the nurse test negative 3 times?

      The ad hominem attack on her vis a vis nookie is low rent but reflective of your continued missives of bloviating inanity.

      • I dont see the information your seeing swampy. Did a quick check.

        ” The cluster originated from a nurse at the Princess Alexandra Hospital who was found positive after a man, who was described as a “superspreader”, flew in from Europe and also infected a doctor at the same hospital. ”

        https://www.smh.com.au/national/historical-covid-case-linked-to-byron-bay-nurse-hens-party-identified-20210411-p57i81.html

        > The ad hominem attack on her vis a vis nookie is low rent but reflective of your continued missives of bloviating inanity.

        You sound like a Labor voter. Might be easier to link the Labor Policies page everytime someone argues against you. You wont have to do any actual thinking then and the Labor voters will probably get there own policies right for once heh.

        Let me know when Labor does something about House Prices.

        Labor hates Men and Australians in general. It loves Woman and Migrants. It pretends to like Australias Young to get elected. As Jordies demonstrates, Australias Young minds are easy to deceive. Based on the information I see presently, on the whole, I see Labor doing more harm then good. If Liberal and Labor are your only choice then Labor is better then Liberal, but overall, your better not voting anything at all then voting Labor. On the whole, Nothing is better then Labor ( unless your female or a migrant worker looking to bring your mum and dad into Australia ). It just happens to be better then Liberal so people suck it up.

        I see 20 years of Leftism coming for Australia. I wish it was the end of Extremist Ideology but in reality, I dont think it is. 20 years of House Prices. 20 years of Feminism. Gonna be a lot of suffering. Just the nature of suffering will change. Australia still needs money, right?

        Are you a China lover Swampy? You think if Australia was Socialist then it’d be a better Country? Australias Young have lost a lot. You think they can recover?

          • I have two legs Mig although I dont do much standing. Im mostly sitting and drinking coffee. I only stand when I go surfing.

            Latest Labor Policies on there own Website old and 2018 – https://www.alp.org.au/media/1539/2018_alp_national_platform_constitution.pdf

            Page 39 is good… ” Intergenerational inequality will increase if prospective home owners are crowded out by
            unsustainable and inequitable tax advantages to wealthy investors. Tax concessions including
            negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts distort markets for existing housing stock, increase
            unaffordability and impose a large and unsustainable drain on Commonwealth revenues.

            178. Labor will reform negative gearing and capital gains tax on residential investment housing by
            limiting negative gearing to investment in new housing and halving the capital gains tax discount to
            25 percent. These reforms will not operate retrospectively. No current housing investments will be
            affected by this reform. This will also provide an impetus to invest in new stock and will create
            employment opportunities in the building industry. “.

            I look forward to Labor releasing an up to date version of this.

            Im a National Born Australian Male. Neither Liberal or Labor does anything for me. Im a minority in my own home against pretty much everybody who isnt National Born Australian or Male. I dont hate Woman and I dont hate Migrants but Australia is doing its very best to hate people like me.

            I love being attacked by foreigners in my own home. If I went to Europe, I’d have nothing but utmost respect for European Culture, Language and its ways. Unfortunately, nobody has any respect for Australians in Australia. The moment you speak out about it your criticised for being a Racist. Its almost like I have no Rights to exist in the Country of my Birth.

            It saddens me that you guys have such hatred towards me. Do you think if I was born in another Country, you’d like me more?

          • migtronixMEMBER

            If people are attacking in your own home you done needs to stand your ground. If you mean me cocksucker, invite me over and we can do this.

            0497646933

          • Im not accusing Labor of being Neo-Liberalist like Liberals are.

            Social Inequality is a problem Skippy. We need to raise welfare Australia wide. Couldnt agree more ( even for woman ). I think Labors got that right.

            You lose me on China, House Prices and Feminism.

            Contrary to popular belief, Little Misogynistic Men like me get absolutely nothing from Liberals Elitists. You might find Liberals only support the top 10% of men in Australia so the vast majority of men get nothing. So, you vote Labor and what do you get? Migrant and Feminism. Yet again, Men are overlooked and get absolutely nothing. Liberal and Labor do not support Australias Center but rely on Extremist Ideologies, be they Liberalism or Racial Prejudices to push there policies. I get why they do it but it does nothing for men. Liberals hate Australians. Labor hates Australians. I think both partys like the Chinese more then they do Australians like me.

            House Prices. Elections still far away and Im eagerly awaiting Labors response to this. They did just get there a$$ handed to them in Bill Shortens last Federal Election. It’ll be really interesting to see where they go on this.

            Feminism. We should increase the levels of welfare but since when is poverty a Female issue? Labors just trying to win votes. Poverty affects both men and woman equally. Men can have poverty just as much as Woman can have poverty. Labor wants to make it a purely Female Issue. It also intrigues me that despite Male Suicide Rates being 3-4 times higher in Australia then Woman, the vast majority of Human Rights Advocates always make Human Rights a Female Issue. I agree there are areas we can do better but why are men always excluded from this? Why does Labor hate men? Is it because they are just as bad as Liberals and just chasing the votes?

            Im a big boy. I can think for myself and despite all the years of cruel hateful things people have said to me, here I still am. I’ve been attacked by Liberals repeatedly as Im sure everyone knows. I’ve been ganged up, threatened, attacked by Labor Feminists who threatened to firebomb my home ( they couldnt fine me hee haw ). I thought Feminists where supposed to be nice? Threatening to petrol bomb someones house isnt very nice.

            Are you nice? Im nice. I like you. Do you like me? Im an Australian in his own home. Why do so many people hate Australians when living in there own home? Its almost like our Freedoms are being eroded. I get all teary eyed and emotional about that. Its almost like I live in a Country that hates and demonises its own National Citizens from both sides of Liberal and Labor Politics.

            When all the migrants kick me out of Australia because of all the Migrant Politics, maybe I’ll move to there Country and do the same thing to them. It seems fair. You think? mig sounds like a European name. Can I move to Europe, sabotage there politics and try to have all Europeans thrown out of there own Country? Its whats happening in Australia. Its better if you profit off it.

          • I thought Feminists where supposed to be nice? Threatening to petrol bomb someones house isnt very nice…..What?
            What did you grow up watching, reading, listening to and being programmed? ‘Feminists I see/saw were heavy set, dozer jawed, drag ons filmed & photographed in grainy black & white. Seems they were also. C is Gend er hating as well although this only recently came to light…thanks you tube, thanks Frankfurt school, thanks Tav e stock, thanks laurel canyon et al. You make me feel like a natural woe man:))

  11. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Meh.

    It’s organizational and industrial capacity. Both capital for R&D and capital for production capacity. A culture that can turn ideas into products. In this case vaccines.

    The US has a myriad of problems, but hearteningly, it still has the ability to turn on a pin.

  12. If the goal is to vaccinate the world to prevent mutations, vaccinating CV free countries like Australia last makes sense. So, perversely, Scomo is saving the world.

    • And, even worse, a woman may be in charge – eckk!

      That would send the LNP / IPA trolls into a frenzy.

    • Lord DudleyMEMBER

      I would be worse than when they murdered all those kids with pink batts! They’d vaccinate all the bludgers but not let any vaccine into Toorak, then let the virus rip! Then they’d take all the money from the dead Toorak residents through death taxes and redistribute it to their bludger mates who would spend it all on booze and cigarettes and popping out unemployed bludger babies that they feed Sprite and McDonalds to.

  13. Lord DudleyMEMBER

    To be fair to Scotty, Australia has pretty limited vaccine supply because it successfully eradicated COVID. Other countries aren’t prioritizing Australia for vaccine delivery. And rightly so, too.

    To be fair to everyone else, the Morrison government has absolutely stuffed up and made a bad situation worse. Only one vaccine instead of multiple; and the rollout of the vaccines they do have is a mess. It makes the US rollout look like a triumph of organization and logistics (which I guess it actually is).

    My 85 year old mother hasn’t been able to get it, and not for lack of trying.

  14. The success of the US rollout is due to being able to go to any pharmacy chain store and get the vaccine. Australia doesn’t have that because Pharmacies are basically a protected sheltered workshop.

  15. The usual odd sensible comment followed by a complete and utter load of drivel. There again it is a left wing post-box of sorts so not really much of a surprise. What on earth has the Mathias life story got to do with the vaccine topic. As for comparing the vaccine roll out in the USA with here is absolutely pointless.