The mortgage cliff was a mirage

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At the height of the coronavirus pandemic last year, 11% of Australian mortgages were on a deferred payment plan, numbering 488,249 mortgages at the peak in May 2020:

At the peak of the pandemic, 11% of mortgages were on a deferred payment plan.

Since then, the number of mortgage deferrals has gradually shrunk to the point that there are now only a few thousand mortgage holders remaining on deferred payment plans.

According to new data from the Australian Bankers Association (ABA), published in the ABC, there were only 3,170 mortgages on deferral at the end of March. Thus, only 0.7% of the mortgages originally deferred remained on repayment holidays when the program officially ended last month, with the value of deferred mortgages only 0.07% of the banks’ total mortgage portfolios.

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ABA chief Anna Bligh has hailed the result, noting the “figures reflect the impressive recovery Australia’s economy is experiencing after facing a one-in-100-year pandemic”.

This time last year, we were concerned that the ‘mortgage cliff’ towering over the housing market would send prices tumbling once emergency income support was withdrawn.

The economy’s and housing market’s rapid recovery proved this prediction dead wrong.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.