Sydney property on track for 30% price growth

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Sydney property prices continue to smash multi-decade long records.

CoreLogic’s March dwelling value results revealed a gigantic 3.7% monthly rise in Sydney home values – the strongest monthly result since August 1988:

Sydney monthly dwelling value growth

Sydney recorded the strongest monthly growth in nearly 33 years in March 2021.

Since then, the pace of quarterly dwelling value growth has continued to rise.

As of yesterday (i.e. 19 April 2021), Sydney’s quarterly dwelling value growth was tracking at an insane 8.1%, which is the strongest quarterly growth since October 1988:

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Sydney quarterly dwelling value growth

Sydney quarterly dwelling value growth is running at its strongest level in more than 32 years.

The last time Sydney’s property prices were rising this fast was in Australia’s bicentenary year, when Kylie Minogue’s debut hit “Loco-Motion”, Belinda Carlisle’s “Heaven Is a Place on Earth”, and Guns N’ Rosses “Sweet Child o’ Mine” were topping the music charts.

Moreover, if Sydney can maintained this pace of growth – a big if – then dwelling values would rise by more than 30% in calendar year 2021.

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While I expect the pace of Sydney price growth to slow, gains of more than 20% this calendar year look very likely.

The city’s auction clearance rate is running hot, recording clearances above 80% for 10 consecutive weeks:

Sydney auction clearances

Sydney’s auction clearance rate has come in above 80% for 10 consecutive weeks.

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New mortgage commitments are also running white hot, reflecting rapacious demand for Sydney property:

Sydney mortgages vs dwelling value growth

Sydney’s mortgage demand has gone vertical.

Sydney dwelling values will continue to inflate until its auction clearance rate and mortgage growth turn down.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.