Oil supply discipline is breaking

It is the favourite trick of investment banks to set their own forecast so that they can be “surprised” when data misses come about. They all use it to manipulate price action to benefit their trades. A nice example is Goldman in the oil market today.

The pre-Easter OPEC was bearish for prices as OPEC drips back 1.1mb/d and Saudi Arabia relaxes its 1m/bd unilateral oil cut over the next three months as well. Moreover, US oil rigs are now clearly responding to price stimuli:

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