MS: Oil cooked

Morgan Stanley with a note I very much agree with:

Inventory draws and demand recovery have supported oil prices in recent months, but two factors are starting to take some wind out of the sails of this bullish thesis: Iranian exports and US drilling activity.We moderate our price forecast for 3Q and close our long Dec’21 Brent idea.

Inventory draws and demand recovery unpinned prices: The sum of on shore storage, floating storage and oil-in-transit has steadily declined so far this year, signalling a market in deficit. At the same time, mobility indicators have started to turn around, with the promise of a further, strong demand recovery ahead. Together, these factors have supported the oil price rally in recent months. Much of this thesis is still intact, but two factors have appeared that take the steam out of this bullish view:

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