Last week, CoreLogic’s Research Director, Tim Lawless, provided seven early indications that Australia’s property market is beginning to slow. These were:
- Slowing growth of the daily dwelling values index;
- Falling auction clearance rates;
- Rising new listings;
- Rising dwelling commencements;
- Falling net overseas migration;
- Reduced fiscal stimulus; and
- Growing affordability constraints.
These developments led Tim Lawless to conclude that housing values would likely “continue to rise throughout 2021 and most likely throughout 2022, just not at the unsustainable pace of growth that has been evident over recent months”.
The REA Insights Weekly Property Search Report provides another indicator that Australia’s property market is beginning to slow, with search activity on realestate.com.au falling sharply from March’s peak; although it remains well above last year’s levels:
‘For sale’ searches have moderated sharply from last month’s peak.
As shown above, for sale searches were up 97% year-on-year in the week ended 28 March 2021. However, this retraced to 45% in the week ended 25 April.
For sale searches are down significantly from March’s peak across every capital city market (search for yourself here). Nevertheless, search activity remains well above last year’s level as follows:
- NSW +35%
- VIC +43%
- QLD +40%
- WA +40%
- SA +34%
- NT +32%
- TAS +30%
- ACT +60%
This suggests that price growth will remain strong, albeit significantly lower than March’s record price gains.
