Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

The trading week has started in mixed fashion with Asian stocks again all over the place, despite a very strong lead from Wall Street on Friday night. The USD however remains weak against all the majors while Bitcoin has put on a very volatile start, gapping below the $48K level before rebounding sharply back up through the $52K zone – a mere 10% intraday move!

Chinese markets took the biggest hits with the Shanghai Composite falling nearly 0.9% to 3443 points while the Hang Seng Index fell back only 0.2% to be just above 29000 points. Japanese markets finally found some life with the Nikkei 225 closing up nearly 0.4% at 29126 points while the USDJPY pair continues its very long drop, remaining below the 108 handle proper but not yet below Friday’s session low:

The ASX200 had a mild selloff again, losing only 0.2% to finish above the 7000 point barrier at 7040 points, while the Australian dollar was able to find a little more life hitting the 77.70 level but still not matching last week’s intrasession high:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are barely moving going into the London open, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price just below the record highs at the 4170 point level after the recent bounce from trailing ATR support at 4130 points with momentum not yet indicating a buy signal:

The economic calendar has two major releases to watch carefully tonight as possible catalysts, first the German IFO survey then the latest US durable goods orders for March.

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Comments

    • Savvy Mum and Dad Investor

      3k COVID deaths per day in a country of 1.3 billion.

      Most of the deaths elderly with underlying health conditions and slobs.

      The US has shown the way forward throughout this pandemic.

    • One hopes so. On the weekend I was speaking to a front line worker from the Howard Springs quarantine facility. She said that the the general view of the workers is to stop the flights until India got their infection rate down.

    • The Travelling Albatross

      Still Scomo might be able to pull it off with another big bribe and no policies

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Pffffft! Motherfvcker had a coalition of assholes even more fragile than Trump. Boomers won’t dare pipe up this either, they’ll get fvcking pummeled for all we’ve sacrificed for the cvuts

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      You’re only getting yourself excited with the inevitable ensuing disappointment many months away… You should probably give yourself a break and resign to the inevitable now. Unless you’re a Collingwood supporter (who’d be used to that sort of thing by now).

      (That’ll be Labor’s fault too!)

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        I’m not excited. 😆 If it’s only a 2% advantage after the vaccine debacle and rolling scandals, what hope have Labor got?

        As for Collingwood…

  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    Sooooooo…

    By my reckoning, every single Kant on this blog who led a #justtehflew charge has, now, either left for that other place or changed their username because, embarassment.

    Have I overlooked someone, anyone?

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      But but but.. when i was saying the Swedish model was better what i REALLY meant was Swedish models are hot.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      I don’t know that anyone necessarily saw it as this bad.

      But what’s going on in India was clearly within the realistic range of outcomes for this pandemic.

      Anyone who thinks we’re closer to the end than the finish might want to revise the projection.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Agree completely with the last two paras. But re the first one… there were plenty of people on here warning about possibilities during those initial months where cruise ship-h3ll was the only visible symptom in the west. And even more surprised people when nothing quite like that eventuated on land (until muuuuuch later).

        Who knew a cold-virus would do extra-well in a contained shared-air environment ‘eh?

        But enough about hotel quarantine… 😉

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    Corona virus in India is pushing rates through the roof lol. I’m regularly seeing $1200/day plus offered

  3. Ritualised Forms

    Scott Morrison tells Christian conference he was called to do God’s work as prime minister
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/26/scott-morrison-tells-christian-conference-he-was-called-to-do-gods-work-as-prime-minister

    Australia’s first Pentecostal PM says he practises the tradition of ‘laying on of hands’ while working and calls misuse of social media the work of ‘the evil one’

    Scott Morrison has asked a national conference of Christian churches to help him help Australia, while revealing his belief that he and his wife, Jenny, have been called upon to do God’s work.

    This may be close to ScoMo shooting the very last of his electoral credibility.

    In video that has emerged of the prime minister speaking at the Australian Christian Churches conference on the Gold Coast last week, Morrison also revealed that he had sought a sign from God while on the 2019 election campaign trail, and that he had practised the evangelical tradition of the “laying-on of hands” while working in the role of prime minister.

    Has God ever spoken in tongue with ScoMo as his voice? Did God suggest how he handled the rape claims about his Attorney General recently? Does God give him the right to, when asked not to shake someones hand, to grab that persons other hand and slap them on the back? How does God feel about Torynuff staffers brandishing their wangers on videos in parliament? Did anyone lay hands on any part of anyone’s body without permission? What does God tell him about unbelievers?

    He also describes the misuse of social media as the work of “the evil one”, in reference to the Devil, and called on his fellow believers to pray against its corrosive effect on society.

    Is it as corrosive in its effects upon society as Trickle Down economics or Managerial Fiat, or Industry self regulation?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Every time I start hearing voices I know it’s time to book another GP appointment.

    • The Travelling Albatross

      Lol just replied to Reusa if he would let Scomo lay hands on him before your extensive well written thesis

    • while revealing his belief that he and his wife, Jenny, have been called upon to do God’s work.

      They are the modern day Jake and Elwood.

      • Hey, the world would be far in front if J&E ran the show rather than the Murdochs and their brainless puppets.

        The music would also be better.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      This just makes the good people of Australia love him more not less. Only the godless inner west types are sickened by this as it goes against their loose evil lifestyles.

    • I met one last week. She was originally from Ireland but has lived in Australia for about a decade. Doing the chit chat thing I asked how her family and friends have gone through it all. She said that it’s not really a thing and that it’s all a big over reaction. Her reasoning was that I, not anyone I know, has been directly affected by the virus, therefore the virus is either made up or no worse than the flu. I’d confidently bet that were her family sick and dying the government in Ireland would be held responsible by her for not doing enough. It’s just sad when we can’t think beyond themselves and our own limited experiences.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Ah, you met people. Yes, this is how people think. People suck.

        Fortunately, in times like these, they self-select for elimination via their own behaviour. A Lose-Win for humanity.

    • With my move I’ve had a few days off the internet. It’s so depressing and infuriating reading everything today.

        • In the words of my father who is not prone to hyperbole: it’s just fabulous. Its double Mt Gambier stone. I’m not exactly sure whether it’s limestone or a basalt as it’s been painted inside and out. Dad actually trained as a geologist and thought it was of volcanic origin.

          The move went incredibly smoothly. I’m over the moon about the whole house, location etc. People have been extremely warm and friendly and welcoming. I initiated a conversation in Kmart with an older lady and we had a wonderful chat and she said a lot of younger people had been moving into the region recently from Melbourne and it’s regions and she thought it was fantastic and hoped we’d all settle in and help revitalise the community (house price rises have obviously not outpriced young locals yet) and she gave me info on some local groups to join. Interestingly I’ve had a few expressions of shock that I’d move without work lined up but everyone has gone on to reassure me after a bit more conversation that I shouldn’t have any trouble finding work. We shall see. So far all my hopes have been exceeded and if things continue like this I can see myself being blissfully happy here (which is weird because I normally keep my emotions very much on an even keel). Had the most amazing pork belly meal at one of the local pubs and there’s an awesome Thai place in the regional centre. I’m so grateful I finally managed to make this move after a decade of strategizing and planning for it.

  4. There you go

    Mb commenters have gone full cnt – to paraphrase – plenty of Indians, a few oldies dying who cares

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Same think tanks. Same election consultants. Same news paper proprietor. Same mindset.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Interesting how those periods of above Average deaths are immediately followed by periods of below average deaths of around the same levels.
      Will we see this after Covid??
      That graph seem to suggest we will.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Interesting how those periods of above Average deaths are immediately followed by periods of above average intelligence.
        Will we see this after Covid?
        That graph seem to suggest we will.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        9th Prime Minister of Australia. James Scullin led Labor to government at the 1929 election.

        The Wall Street Crash of 1929 transpired just two days after his swearing in, which would herald the beginning of the Great Depression in Australia.

        I Agree Willy.
        Correlation is always causation!
        The Great depression WAS Labors fault!
        Just like the next one will be.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          And the GFC.
          And Yoko Ono getting John’s phone number.
          And the decline and fall of the Roman empire, if I recall correctly.

  5. Is it too early for a Melbourne Football Club Grand Final guarantee Leith? I think not. Lid’s coming off.