Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Will Bitcoin destroy the US dollar?

Asian share markets are moving higher going into the Easter break with the firmer lead from Wall Street and some better than expected economic prints helping risk sentiment.  Bitcoin is again relatively strong but remains unchanged as it finds more resistance at the $59K level while gold is poised here to breakout higher on its reversal bounce from overnight, currently at $1710 USD per ounce:

The Shanghai Composite is up 0.2% going into the close, currently at 3444 points while the Hang Seng Index is surging much higher, up 1.1% to 28689 points. Japanese markets are also finding a strong bid, with the Nikkei 225 taking back its previous losses and closing up 0.6% at 29382 points while the USDJPY pair is tightening at the 110.70 point of control as the symmetrical triangle tightens on the four hourly chart:

Solid retail sales and trade data has helped push the ASX200 higher, closing up 0.5% at 6828 points, while the Australian dollar broke down to a new weekly and monthly – read Christmas last year low – and its swiftly heading to the 75 handle going into the European session:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lifting slightly with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to push through the 4000 point magical barrier which has remained elusive since the start of the week:

The economic calendar includes German retail sales plus the usual slew of manufacturing PMI prints including the US ISM version.

Right, that’s my last report for a little while – going on a small holiday (first one since 2019) over Easter. If you’re not sure of the Becker Curse, whenever I go on holidays/move house/have break from trading etc, something BIG happens on the markets that I miss….so fair warning.

I reckon Bitcoin will go up or down, by like – a lot. 

Cheerio, stay safe over the Easter break and see you again soon!

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Comments

  1. The Travelling Albatross

    First on behalf of beloved missing Harry
    Also wishing everyone safe happy Easter and hopefully won’t get a lockdown where ever they are travelling

          • Pointing out facts of ones previous statements and their personal bearing is a dog act – ???? – how about all those that were on the receiving end, back in the day, too said persons dialectal/rhetorical preferences due to some assumed authority over them. FKMEDead and here I thought some were all down with survival of the fittest and the best DNA Wins ….

            I’ll put it this way … anyone that wants to enter the public sphere of debate and start pigeonholing vast swaths of humanity, too concoct an out come post hoc propter hoc, too fit, a predetermined ideological outcome and then has a moment when pulled up on it should reconcile their past and not extenuate such on others due to personal failure.

            BTW what is all this rubbish about studying econnomics about, like Mankiw is an economist or Friedman for that matter … you up to date on the neoclassical/neo-new Keynesian synergism – ????

        • He’s busy working toward a deposit so he can buy a tiny place in Marrickville and be more successful like yourself Reusa.

    • Thanks for the link. It includes a marvellous paragraph summarising the delusion:

      “Asset price gains deliver greater wealth and boost confidence, which then feeds into improved spending and sustainable growth. “

  2. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Morrison & his cronies have a proposal to require 100 points of ID to join Twitter & Facebook. Brilliant Black Adder! What a cunning plan!

    This will be the greatest boon for Auzzie App developers ever. 💰💵💰

    Bring it on, dipsh!ts.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Struggling to see how they can work that.

      Anyhows, they must be really p!ssed at how badly they’ve lost the conversation to try to control users.

    • Just another example of how much they have lost the plot. Fooking Plonkers! How good is vaccine choice! (in Serbia)

    • Meta data was always about control contra the whole libertarian utopia of stateless society where markets determined where manna rained down from above the faithful ….

    • Reminds me of ICQ, after some Russians bought it from AOL, and then they tried some sort of a similar ‘we wanna know you are who you say you are’ as a consequence of a bunch of laws passed by the government… turns out that quite a lot of people took that as a tap to seek the exits if the AOL decline hadn’t convinced them enough that it’s over.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      It is after 12 noon, so this shouldn’t be an April Fool. And if it’s news and if it’s actually true… bring it on! Can’t wait to see what happens after that proposal makes it way to Zuckerberg et al.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Who will probably ask if they should auto-fill and auto-submit all the current Australian user’s applications for them!

    • Ok this is funny for a number of reasons.
      1. Facebook already has more information on users than most 100 point ID systems would be able to provide.
      2. They want to force you to give Foreign run companies 100 points of ID so they know more about you?
      3. They are not aware that their own members are jacking off on others desks and they are worried about what Joe Public is getting up to?
      4. Is this Jenny’s idea?
      5. I thought they were reviewing the 1988 Privacy Act to help us stay more private online? Not less.
      6. Whilst they are making laws up, can they force companies like Twitter and Facebook to pay us for using their platforms instead?
      7. This is an April Fools joke right?

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        It is funny. It’s really about suing rando people for defamation and stifling the sh,t tonne of pushback they’re getting at the moment.

        • Not all that surprising, even blowdryer queen KRudd has been stalking these pages looking for a defamation payday of late.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        It’s about being able to trivially identify who people are for real life so they can be sued. More accurately, it’s about making those people understand that it’s about making them easy to find and sue, so they’re suitably scared away from making nasty comments or allegations of misbehaviour (ie: removing anonymity).

        The hysteria about “cancel culture” from media and other elites has the same basis – people in power don’t like being told they’re knobs by the common punter, and especially don’t like it when they’re being told that by a metric sh!tload of common punters. It undermines the perception of their influence and authoritah.

        The people running the place haven’t entirely figured out how to distill out the useful (to them) parts of social media (eg: easily manipulating opinions and creating partisanship) from the bits they don’t like (eg: lots of normal people telling them what they think).

  3. https://nautil.us/issue/98/mind/i-have-come-to-bury-ayn-rand

    “Here’s how it’s supposed to work: Everything of value can be represented as a dollar value and therefore can be compared to anything else of value by their relative prices. Making money is the surest way to provide value to people because the best way to make money is to provide what people are most willing to pay for. The system works so well that no other form of care toward others is required. No empathy. No loyalty. No forgiveness. Thanks to the market, the old-fashioned virtues have been rendered obsolete. That’s why Milton Friedman could make his famous claim in 1970 that the only social responsibility of a business is to maximize profits for its shareholders. In Ayn Rand’s fictional rendering, the word “give” is banned from the vocabulary of the Utopian community founded by John Galt, whose members must recite the oath: “I swear by my life and love of it that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for the sake of mine.”

    Morons.

    • Just for those that are dim of memory …

      The main points of neo-liberalism include:

      THE RULE OF THE MARKET. Liberating “free” enterprise or private enterprise from any bonds imposed by the government (the state) no matter how much social damage this causes. Greater openness to international trade and investment, as in NAFTA. Reduce wages by de-unionizing workers and eliminating workers’ rights that had been won over many years of struggle. No more price controls. All in all, total freedom of movement for capital, goods and services. To convince us this is good for us, they say “an unregulated market is the best way to increase economic growth, which will ultimately benefit everyone.” It’s like Reagan’s “supply-side” and “trickle-down” economics — but somehow the wealth didn’t trickle down very much.

      CUTTING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE FOR SOCIAL SERVICES like education and health care. REDUCING THE SAFETY-NET FOR THE POOR, and even maintenance of roads, bridges, water supply — again in the name of reducing government’s role. Of course, they don’t oppose government subsidies and tax benefits for business.

      DEREGULATION. Reduce government regulation of everything that could diminsh profits, including protecting the environment and safety on the job.

      PRIVATIZATION. Sell state-owned enterprises, goods and services to private investors. This includes banks, key industries, railroads, toll highways, electricity, schools, hospitals and even fresh water. Although usually done in the name of greater efficiency, which is often needed, privatization has mainly had the effect of concentrating wealth even more in a few hands and making the public pay even more for its needs.

      ELIMINATING THE CONCEPT OF “THE PUBLIC GOOD” or “COMMUNITY” and replacing it with “individual responsibility.” Pressuring the poorest people in a society to find solutions to their lack of health care, education and social security all by themselves — then blaming them, if they fail, as “lazy.”

      • Well, geez, thanks for that skip, you’re right, I sometimes forget stuff that I was introduced to decades ago when I was doing high school economics. Looking forward to your instructions about how to dissect a frog.

          • Skip’s 101: if you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullsh!t.

          • Stick it a sock rusted on … the information is what it is and don’t play the messenger assassination rhetorical ploy boy. Do you actually have anything to say which is grounded in some semblance of intellectual argument or are you another solider of the light ….

          • I don’t intend to start regurgitating descriptive economics and political mush just to go toe to toe with you, boy. Let’s just pretend you’ve aced first year, now how about moving onto some second year topics. I seem to recall you have no issues with putting sh!t on the contributions of others so why not just suck it up.

          • Mate I’ll sort you at marginalism, Hume bastardizing his predecessor out of context, atomistic individualism, Powell-Citi, Larry Summers memo, IS-LM loanable funds with a side of Says law, and you can keep on trucking over to Lars Syll for a more robust intellectual unpacking of what you consumed in the place of thought …. sux too be you …

          • Funny how you keep pushing the notion that you are somehow intellectual when all you do is talk in labels, names and cliches. I have yet to see you take on a single real life issue and use all your supposed intellectualism to nut out a workable practical solution. Leith does it for a living, ex-gunna and 007 do it out of habit, a few others here do it regularly, but not the mighty marsupial. But yeah, gardening …

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          I know all that stuff as well.
          But I like to see it written down and articulated accurately just as a refresher against the sea of lies and propaganda that washes over us constantly telling us all is well and as it should be.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            It’s like being reminded we all breath air! It’s easy to forget when it’s such a reflexive state of being.

            Good on ya Skip!

            Jesus was not a neo-Liberal.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Oh come on – not all of us are on here 24×7. What did harry do this time? You can’t just drop a remark like that and then go radio silent without allowing for the possibility of understanding, reconciliation and forgiveness. It is Easter after all. You can’t just leave us hanging mate.

          Oh. Wait…

  4. The Traveling Wilbur

    Easter is a time for reflection.
    He suffered for our sins.
    He was with us for a short time.
    It’s easy to imagine he’s watching over us.
    Without getting involved personally.
    And his neverending sermons and wine spruking are historical events still remembered today.

    But enough about harry, everyone going to services tomorrow?

  5. Fkn ING. We had only three months of their introductory variable rate on our home loan (2.54%) and today they raised it by 72 basis points to 3.26%! Lousy cvnts.