Chinese data misses big, economy slows fast

Friday, 16 April 2021

Lordy, China data is a mess. Base effects have distorted everything. If we look through the fog what we find mostly is a disappointment. First-quarter GDP was only 0.6%, far below the forecast 1.4%. That is disguised by year on year figures which are wonky as anything 18.3%:

The internals for the month of March were just as warped with industrial production at 14.1% versus 18% expected, retail sales at 34.2% beating 28% expected and fixed asset investment was 25.6% YTD roughly as expected. Below is the distorted YTD chart:

Turning to particular segments, house prices have firmed a little in March up 0.4% and 4.6% year over year:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.