Australia continues to lose migrants

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for February 2020, which confirmed that net migration into Australia remains negative.

There were 22,830 net permanent & long-term departures in the 11 months since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, representing the first time that net arrivals has been negative since the series commenced in 1976:

Net long-term arrivals

Australia continues to lose migrants to the pandemic.

Annual net permanent & long-term arrivals fell to just 1,490 in the year to February 2021, the lowest figure in recorded history:

Australian net long-term arrivals

Annual net long-term arrivals have fallen to the lowest level on record.

The monthly net permanent & long-term arrivals data is strongly correlated with the official net overseas migration (NOM) data published later by the ABS, which is only current to September 2020. The next chart plots these two series together, which suggests NOM is also headed for heavy falls:

Australian net immigration

Australia’s official NOM is headed for heavy falls.

The October Budget and projected negative NOM of -71,600 in 2020-21 and -21,600 in 2021-22:

The federal budget predicted negative NOM over the next two financial years.

While negative NOM is baked in for 2020-21, based on the above figures it is unlikely to reach the huge losses predicted in the Budget.

Unconventional Economist
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  1. Terrible news. I’m praying for Harry Triguboff and Gerry Harvey right now, I implore you all to do the same. Let us all keep them in our thoughts, our hearts, and our prayers.

    • i know – isn’t this just terrible …. i mean those poor fellas that rely on the ponzi

      hahaha – best thing that has ever happened! A silver lining from all the covid disruption.

  2. Frank DrebinMEMBER

    Migrants leave and house prices rise !!.

    All Australians should be aware that both major parties and the Greens threaten this with their open border policies. SAP should be having a field day – “a vote for us is a vote for rising house prices” !.

    • Yeah because by definition there wouldn’t be enough votes in pointing out that Australians born of Australian parents are a minority in Australia.

      • Yes. Aboriginal people have been in that situation for quite some time. Must do something about it.

        • My point was that the SAP can’t argue that Australia should belong to Australians because the interests of the bulk of population are aligned with overseas interests. This is a logical conclusion based on a known, verifable fact that is unprecedented in nearly all of human history, apart from Australia during the colonial period. In response you seem to be telling me, only by implication and probably by means of sarcasm, that Aborginals are in the same boat. Well obviously. But what exactly is your point? That no country on earth should be dominated by the people that have ancestry there? Does that mean everyone has to move every few years? Is that because building durable communities results in concentrations of power that are a threat to the existing order? I bet you haven’t asked a single Aboriginal what they think of the latest round of mass immigration. So if colonisation was such a great evil, how does mass immigration fix things for the Aboriginals? Or are you simply being a smarty pants trying to derail arguments against mass immigration because you are a direct beneficary either through ever rising house prices, reduced labour costs (chinese/thai massage? Nail salon? cheap food delivery and courier services?) or perhaps a job at a university? Come on, let’s have a proper argument.

  3. Fwiw some anecdata. Spoke to a friend who has lost her jobteaching esl to foreign students at a 2 nd tier uni yesterday. Her boss at uni is rock solid convinced that next academic year everything will be back to normal despite the vaccine balls up (i told her 2 nd semester 22 maybe). She has another friend who is a migration agent and apparently he’s never been busier. All the prospective migrants want their visas now so that as soon as the borders are open they can come to paradise Straya.

      • Um no way too risky. Just mentioned it for general interest and perhaps incentive to get your personal situation in order if possible to prepare for what we all know is coming eventually

  4. So we have had 1,490 more long-term arrivals than departures this calendar year then?? New permanent migrants or Australians returning home? Sadly migration will be booming again soon.

    Where’s that guy now i wonder, that was predicting a loss of 300,000 people, on Ch7 at the beginning of the pandemic?

  5. Its amazing the difference a few days make…

    Information Technology ( Programme Management 42k, Business Analysts 7k ) 53k
    Trades and Services 44k ( Laborers and Bricklayers )
    Health and Medical 23k ( 13k pathology )
    HR 20k ( Management 10k Recruitment 9.5k )
    Executive Management 16k

    Its been a week. We’re a country of people who love buying real estate, loves paying other people to run our business’s for us because we are in need of that Dividend Income. Whats the point of owning Real Estate if you cant have it earning money for you, eh? Besides, we cant run a business for ourselves so we might as well see if some idiot wouldnt mind doing it for us for cheap? As we all know, if they could run there own business then why the hell would they be applying in the first place? We also need builders. We also have a virus we need medical staff for ( that little covid thing ).

    So within a week, apparently, we’ve discovered Technology. A tonne of IT jobs dumped into the list. Not your average grunt worker, hit buttons and look clever for the boss but a ‘Programme Manager’ no less. IT Programme Manager which is short for, ” We have no idea what the hell to do so we will pay you peanuts, while you turn our real estate property business into something we can eventually get paid an income for “.

    So Im guessing we’ve just hired all these ‘Expert Business Managers’ who dont have a clue how to run a business and now we are hiring all these IT ‘Programme Managers’ because the Business Managers dont want to do any work and want to offload it onto the IT Programme Managers. That way, they can drink coffee and perv at woman all day while the IT guy automates half the business and does all the work.

    All of this would seem absolutely wonderful news except for the fact, Australia still has high house prices which means its Business Sector is barely alive. Discretionary Incomes are in the dirt and despite being paid peanuts to dedicate your heart and soul to a business project that might one day be your ultimate career, you end up Unemployed in 6 months. The cost of real estate is just too high and business incomes predominately non-existent.

    Let me guess, these people hiring are either attached to a Government Agency ( printing press ) or are attached to some Retired Boomer who figured they’d take a risk and drop some of there Superannuation on a Business Scheme.

    The only problem is in an environment where House Prices are absorbing all of the Nations cash and Discretionary incomes are going nowhere, your likelyhood of permanent employment and long term viability in a great job, is next to zero. 6 months of hard, back breaking work and when the money runs out without any business income, your likely to find yourself Unemployed.

    I like the Jobs Diversity. I dont like that House Prices are a Black Hole destroying Australian Business’s. It basically means your Job is going to be short lived.

    If it was me, I’d go surfing and hold out for something better. Wait till the housing market crashes and then reconsider whether my next offer will give me a future or just exploit me. Currently, I just see exploitation.

  6. This is just what the ‘Aussie-Quality-of-Life-Doctor’ ordered. so, again, thanks COVID-19 for restoring some reversion-to-mean to the Aussie population growth story!