The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for February 2020, which confirmed that net migration into Australia remains negative.
There were 22,830 net permanent & long-term departures in the 11 months since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, representing the first time that net arrivals has been negative since the series commenced in 1976:
Australia continues to lose migrants to the pandemic.
Annual net permanent & long-term arrivals fell to just 1,490 in the year to February 2021, the lowest figure in recorded history:
Annual net long-term arrivals have fallen to the lowest level on record.
The monthly net permanent & long-term arrivals data is strongly correlated with the official net overseas migration (NOM) data published later by the ABS, which is only current to September 2020. The next chart plots these two series together, which suggests NOM is also headed for heavy falls:
Australia’s official NOM is headed for heavy falls.
The October Budget and projected negative NOM of -71,600 in 2020-21 and -21,600 in 2021-22:
The federal budget predicted negative NOM over the next two financial years.
While negative NOM is baked in for 2020-21, based on the above figures it is unlikely to reach the huge losses predicted in the Budget.
