US eating out and travel surge with vaccine

Some more today on the US economic recovery, which is the leading indicator for the world as the vaccine glut approaches in H2. Goldman sees:

The post-vaccine reopening of the economy is barely underway, but our expectation of accelerating sequential growth is transitioning from forecast to fact. Credit card data are consistent with a mid-single-digit gain in March retail sales (control, mom sa), and we believe the risks are skewed to the upside, because the final two weeks of the month are benefitting from $240 billion of stimulus payments the week of March 17. All in, we estimate the pace of corona crisis fiscal support to consumers is accelerating by $1 trillion on an annualized basis (or 5% of GDP) for March and Q2, relative to the previous six months.nThe intra-month spending pattern also indicates a stimulus- and reopening-driven spending surge. Our Recovery Tracker inflected higher over the course of March, in part due to retailer reopenings, the reversal of winter storm effects, and a decline in new Covid infections that coincided with a 15pp increase in airport usage. Restaurant activity has similarly improved, with OpenTable seatings nearing 70% of normal nationwide and back above pre-crisis in Texas.

Looking ahead, we believe the uneven recovery to date across economic sectors is actually good news for the 2021 growth outlook, as it increases the scope for outsized gains in underperforming sectors.

45% of US GDP is in services which are still down 5% year on year. They are going to roar back.

For instance, jab a man he will eat steak:

Mmm...steak...

Mmm…steak…

Then jump on a plane!

US travel set for take-off

US travel set for take-off

We remain long good value travel stocks in the US especially, and also here, where even the useless Morrison Government will eventually catch on that the vaccine is the gateway to a boom:

Australia's Third World vaccine rollout

Australia’s Third World vaccine rollout

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. So my wife’s local practice is ONLY vaccinating above 90s now. She need to go there as they have her Hx and she has an existing condition.

    Meanwhile other clinics are doing anyone in 1b.

    Why is this not codified to dispel ambiguity and confusion.

  2. There is no urge to vax local plebs at the same pace as the rest of the world, particularly places with roaring infections.
    Ban on international travel is actually good at the moment as it boost local tourism.
    Oh, and we get to see if waxing actually does sumtin as claimed (so far not much)

  3. A shifting landscape.

    A magnifying glass on which Countrys have the most corruption. Those who act quickly are organised. Those who spend all there time arguing about it, seen under the spotlight.

    There is no middle ground in Australia anymore. I doubt this has a chance to improve anytime soon.

    Means nothing for Currencys. I’ll just trade the other one when one Country collapses.

    Animal Farm. When Boxers leg was hurt, they turned on him and tossed him in the butchers van.

    I imagine the next step for Australia will be to throw all men under a bus. Australias Heroes. Tommorrows [email protected] I dont think any of this stuff is going to turn out as planned.

    I would imagine its a bit like a man losing his job and his wife divorcing him ( he has no money anymore )… except now its on a National Scale.

    I get the theory. I just dont think half this stuff will end the way people think it will in practice. Wasnt it Warren Buffet who said, ” Governments are better at making things fall then rise? “. Something like that, anyway.

    Stagflation. For me, thats codeword for ” We havent crashed yet “.