Sydney to record strongest property price growth in 33 years

March is set to record Sydney’s strongest rise in dwelling values in 33 years, according to the CoreLogic daily index.

As at 24 March, and with one week to go before the end of the month, Sydney’s dwelling values have risen by 2.96%. And if the current pace of growth is maintained, Sydney could record dwelling value growth of around 3.5% for March 2021.

The next chart shows how March’s current rise in dwelling values compares with history:

Sydney property price growth

The last time Sydney recorded monthly growth above 3% was in 1988.

The last time Sydney recorded monthly dwelling value growth above 3% was in October 1988 (3.5%).

Quarterly Sydney dwelling value growth is also soaring, growing by 6.0% as at 24 March 2021. This is approaching the peak of recent price cycles:

Sydney quarterly dwelling value growth

Quarterly Sydney dwelling values are growing at 6%.

The immediate outlook for Sydney dwelling values is obviously very strong, with auction clearances now running above 80%. Based on past correlations, this suggests even stronger price growth for Sydney:

Sydney auction clearance rate

Sydney’s auction clearance rate is pointing to stronger property price growth.

More importantly, the growth in new mortgage commitments has accelerated across Sydney, which also typically leads dwelling value growth:

The rebound in mortgage commitments points to strong price growth for Sydney property.

If the current momentum continues through the year (a big if), Sydney would register circa 25% price growth in 2021. The last time Sydney dwelling value growth peaked at 20% or above was in August 2015 (20.0%) and before that September 1989 (49.0%).

Therefore, Sydney is this year facing one of its biggest property price booms in generations.

Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)

Comments

  1. Take that property price crash and turn it upside down!! Circa 20% and that’s before they open the gates. There’s no iff, huge momentum, this will keep running until they put the brakes on, which they won’t as it’s literally the only show in town. Dual income renting professionals paying 2-2.5K a month in rent can now easily afford 1.1-1.3m on a sub 2% fixed rate for 3-4 years. Upgraders hitting the market, equity in no. 1 giving them confidence to overbid on no. 2.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Those gates have been open since September last year with Home Affairs apparently being told that SIV and other business-type visa applications to be given first and second priority, with everything else to be dealt with after that. The gates will be flung wide open to let in the cannon fodder to fight out the lesser house price categories with local sucker bait. Welcome to SFM’s Straya.

  2. Overpriced Flooded propertys lol.

    Money in a desperate search for yield.

    Everyone wants to back the next horse… but we’re running out of horses to back as Young Youthful Energy is fading away. It might end up taking off to New Zealand… and why wouldnt it go elsewhere? It gets treated better.

    Interest rates… down down down.

    Perhaps Australia should do what China does… buy Korean slaves for $50 a piece.

    • Hugh could
      We are months away from this bubble bursting
      I’d say AUST will have the biggest house price crash of any country ever in history
      We are going to see and experience it before Xmas this year

    • Jumping jack flash

      Around 10 million median by 2050!

      Its required if they’re going to perpetuate the “double every 7 to 10” mantra.

      How do we get there? Anyone? Has anyone thought about it and what it actually means has to happen?

      We wont get there by wage theft that’s for sure.

  3. pfh007.comMEMBER

    What did anyone expect would happen when a bunch of clowns demanded that the RBA run ZIRP, QE and TFF?

    Oh sorry, that was all about holding down the AUD and it is all APRAs fault that the housing bubble has been inflated.

    At least Japan waited until their housing bubble exploded before doing something as stupid as QE.

    • I read on here it was in the AFR that they will implement QE in Q4

      It’s just so coincidental that when their plan to implement is the actual quarter we see the house price crash

      Coincidental but not surprising

        • Pfh

          Nothing they do or say makes any difference now, QE MP what ever, we are way past the point of no return and I believe they know it
          Our financial system is on the edge of collapse

          Only alt control delete, reset button can fix this and its probably better this way

          We are months away now . Q4 into Q1 22 will be the worst before we start a recovery in second half next year 2022 in 2023 we will be up and going..
          their solution will be to increase the money supply just as they did this year … what was it 5 to 10 trillion stimulus I think in 2020

          It’ll be $20 trillion up to $50 trillion possibly this time but the crash and reset is coming first

          • pfh007.comMEMBER

            bcnich,

            “..Only alt control delete, reset button can fix this and its probably better this way..”

            I understand the feeling as we do have a particularly low wattage economic debate in Australia but there is a solution and that is to end the banker monopoly of the RBA (the operation of deposit accounts).

            With everyone able to operate an account at the central bank and accordingly a much larger central bank balance sheet it will be possible to allow the asset price bubbles to soften, sage and deflate without crashing the economy.

            The only reason the RBA and everyone else keeps insisting on dumb stuff like QE, TFF and ZIRP is because they refuse to consider reforming the broken and dysfunctional model of having bank credit at the centre of the monetary system.

            Have a read and ask me any question you want.

            https://theglass-pyramid.com/2020/08/15/myrba-the-quick-guide-and-helpful-links/

          • @BC…that’s some V-shaped recovery you’re forecasting. Not sure it’s possible from a collapsed system, which is what you seem to be implying is in stall in Q4…

          • pfh007.comMEMBER

            Ahhh!

            I was wondering about that as I figured you were watching the QE lunacy closely.

    • Absolutely Boom 💥 times ahead
      Not the boom you are taking about

      And I tell you the boom coming is going to be for the history books (we will see a meltdown in second half this year into Q1 22), that will reverse price gains back to at least early 2000 levels……if not late 1990s prices

      My personal concern is we may not be able to get a mortgage at that time …….

      I am hoping the government comes up with some scheme to reignite, maybe some sort of QE very low fixed rate…..similar to what they did in London in 2008/11

      It’ll be interesting to see what they come up with

      I’m hoping they can merge/consolidate existing banks with some sort of government guarantee……there won’t be the 20 + banks now ……we have to wait and see

      Without even my extreme view, I heard 4 & 5 year fixed rates are rising now, and you’ll see all fixed rates that are sub 2% be around 3.5 to 4% in 6 months ……variable now 2.65 up to 3,65%

  4. BoomToBustMEMBER

    Housing rising that much in a year is bat sh!t crazy. What is this confidence based on?? Jobkeeper ends in a week, insolvency laws revert in a week. Immigration is at an all time low, not much Chinese funny money floating around and there is already talk of raising interest rates. And a few other interesting events going on at the moment, like global lockdowns!! This was never going to end well, but the question is when will it end??

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Meh. Good people don’t give a sh1t about all of that guff. Yeah. Boom times!

      After all these years of losing you really need a new winning name like BoomToBoom! LOLOLOL

    • BTB
      This is the easiest and my most certain prediction I’ve ever made ……
      We are at the absolute high in prices now
      Lock it in ……not even a Q……even Eliza Owen etc are saying this is not sustainable

    • How many JK recipients are likely to be in the market for a house.
      How many JK recipients are in a single income house where the sole wage earner is on JK, or, put another way, how many JK recipients are in a household where the other person is not on JK.
      How many JK recipients are not transitioning back to work/full pay.

      • TA

        Westpac came up with the polar votex theory causing colder conditions

        I’m not sure sunspots are causing these floods …..some weather phenomenon certainly is

        I said in January 2020 that the bushfires are the precursor to something worse ….I copped it….but I said things seem to happen all at once and we had the pandemic

        The floods and that $3M home in NSW floating down the street was it for me…..think big house price falls start in Sydney NSW like in 2016….think Sydney will start the crash

          • Sunspots do cause changes in temperature, that’s scientifically proven but not sure of any link here

            You can laugh at my link with sunspots and financial markets but not the link with weather

          • Exactly what is it do you think causes La Niña? The sun- being a huge ball of burning gases- is uneven in its temperature across its surface. All weather and climate on Earth is caused by variances in the heat received from the sun. This uneven heat distribution causes the Earth to warm at different places to a greater or lesser degree than other places. The temperature differentials across the Pacific Ocean are responsible for La Niña. Sunspots cause La Niña.

      • Sydney mid year will be the trigger ….as banks raise rates …..news will be cooling prices to falls in Sydney mid year I’m looking for, for confirmation….maybe just after mid year

      • Reusa
        Prices will go up another 10% possibly in Q2 just another fool buying and borrowing at ever higher prices and debt
        2020s ….will be much higher interest rates maybe 6,7,8% again like we’ve had in the past
        So jump in now for a life of misery

        You might make a paper value but unless you sell and move to another asset class, all the equity people think they are going to have will be gone
        Even at 4% fixed rates prices will be 10/15% lower than here and pretty quickly …..put aside my view prices will be rolling over mid year,,.I spoke to a mortgage broker yesterday they told me 4 and 5 year fixed rates are already rising ………and all the rest only months away from increasing
        Really it’s not much of a prediction I’m making

        Honestly every analyst should be talking about a correction or at least steam gone in H2 as bond yields everywhere rise backed up by 4 & 5 year fixed rates already being increased now

      • For me I don’t see paying for a ridiculously over priced home and going into debt as success

        The funny thing I’m renting in Melb inner South/South East and the landlord dropped my weekly rent from $950 4 bed 3 bathroom to $750 per week…..but I sit here with another 12 months rent cost if $750 per week…..and I walk around the suburb and adjoining suburbs and many of the $1000 per week homes empty

        Maybe that’s just melb

        So people in Melb are paying much higher prices against falling rents …..

        I don’t believe if you are under 40 you’d even know what living with a mortgage when it’s 8,9,10% is

        It’s misery

        Your success will be a life of debt prison you can never get out of in negative equity ……can’t sell can’t exit ……years and years of sacrificing meals out, no holidays etc just to pay the mortgage

        The younger unfortunately will learn this the very hard way

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          True that. Nobody I know up to a certain age actually plans to pay off their mortgage. It’s all “get a foothold in the market” and then upgrade in a couple of years when the value has gone up.

          Maybe if I “just get a foothold in the market” with some penny stocks, one day I can buy some Tesla!

          • The problem is that in fairness no one has really seen a major property downturn in Australia , the boomers pushing their kids in their late 20s 30s think prices only go up
            They don’t understand cycles and really for our lifetime since past WW2 in Australia prices have only risen or at least since 1981 when the US 10 year bond fell from 15% to 0% over 40 years it’s been house prices only up less a couple of corrections
            People in general don’t understand we will now have years 10 possibly 20 years where house prices go down ….higher interest rates inflation etc

            “Get a foot in the market”
            You need to own or be left behind

            I’m actually quite surprised people don’t have a knowledge of history…

  5. Labour value is the flip side of this exponential rise in Housing price.
    Seen through this lens our labour is practically worthless and depreciating rapidly
    we can’t organize it to create value and we can’t individually deploy our labour to create value
    our labour it’s worthless,
    no one willingly exchanges something that they value (houses) for labour
    Why?? one obvious reason is that our general lack of globally valued skills limits the market for Australian labour.
    Within this limited market (Australia) the tasks that are rewarded (building houses) suffer from wage depreciation due to an over supply of qualified trades people but that’s only the half of the equation because logically this should result in a building boom, but it just doesn’t due mainly to the Political control of Residential land supply..
    Interestingly we’re not the first country to go down this dysfunctional path and also not surprising is that the other countries didn’t survive their respective trips into lala land.
    Maybe that’s the big picture takeaway
    Maybe Australian’s and their dysfunctional social/political structure will tear each other apart leaving our assets to be plundered, maybe that’s the real master plan.
    Clearly we can reverse this trend by implementing policies which force the price of Australian labour up, unfortunately nothing that we do (over the short term) will increase the global value of Australian labour, so lets just admit it
    Aussie Labour is worthless!

  6. I’m a student of Kaballah and also Astrology….

    On DEC 21 we had the great conjunction, it’s Jupiter and Saturn met a zero degrees in Aquarius…….we entered the age of AQUARIUS…….

    I won’t go into detail…….but we have a huge reset of society, our economic system etc …….starting this year into early 2023

    We are going to have a huge reset,,,,,that will be triggered by the greatest financial crisis in history,,,,I believe it’s going to start or be well under way in Q3 this.year

    It’s going to be bigger than anything ever in recoded history…..because global widespread , its going to affect every country in the world

      • Last year I said we were headed into solar minimum but we’re now rising into solar cycle 25 already so the effect of solar minimum has now gone …
        so the effects of solar minimum have now dissipated…
        I made all my forecasts and effects of the decline from SC 24 into minimum and I said that we’d have a major downturn in extreme solar minimum which was March:April and we did have a downturn
        I also said the worst of the virus would be in the solar minimum period 2020 year and we would start to rise into solar cycle 25 late 2020 into 2021 and the virus would start to dissipate first half of 21 and said we’d be into a recovery late 2020
        You can look at my comments in 2019…. I actually in 2019 we’d have a crisis at April 2020
        My analysis was backed up by evidence of previous major crisis in periods of solar minimum

        Re my Kabbalah and Astrology,.. I changed my religion to Buddhism about 10 years ago and have studied further into the connection btw science and Karma cause and effect and how physics and astrology etc affects human emotion and decision etc … plus many more things relating
        I’m not Jewish but really found principles of Kabbalah fascinating

        Many choose a belief system .. Catholicism

        I actually went to what’s considered one of the best catholic schools in Melb and had men in robes preachin if you have sex before marriage you go to hell while at the same time these guys in robes had all these pervert things going on with young boys . I thought all that stuff at school was a crock of sh1t

        Anyway maybe I’m a crank but I believe in how the world , economy, weather etc etc all have effect on all of us including decisions made by humans in the financial decision making

        When I was an institutional trader I only looked at fundamental analysis and was even skeptical of technical analysts that CB uses on here

        I found TA actually has the fundamental analysis built in so felt TA was better but took things really much further

        It’s definitely made my forecasting for me much more accurate definitely timing i feel I’m even more accurate from understanding the CRANK stuff

        The crisis this year is a combination off all of above

        2020 printing was never allowed the excesses to be worked through and it just coincides with the age of Aquarius …. reset of society etc

        Each to their own what they believe

        • About 15 years ago I saw this obscure doco called something like ‘Age Of Aquarius, Age of Evil’. It had the history of the New Age movement starting with Blavatsky and her Theosofy and made interesting connections to what we are seeing now and how the future might look like. It is amazing when you read biographies of influential people, politicians and elite alike how many have more than a passing interest in astrology, channeling of spirits, paranormal activity etc.

          Edit: Forgot one very important interest of the elite, numerology.

        • Fabian AlderseyMEMBER

          Hang on… You were forecasting based on solar cycles, but now that they don’t predict falls you’re switching to a different forecast method which is predicting falls?

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment. Log in now