Perth property headed for mega boom

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All indicators are pointing to a mega boom for Perth’s property market.

According to CoreLogic’s February dwelling value results, Perth recorded the strongest quarterly value increase of all capital cities, with prices surging 4.3%. This was the strongest price growth since 2006.

Perth property price growth

Perth dwelling values surged by 4.3% over the February quarter, the strongest growth in 15 years.

The latest market indicators from the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) also points to booming conditions in Perth, with strong demand swamping market supply.

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First, for sales listings across Perth fell to a 10 year low in February, with only 7,899 properties listed on reiwa.com at the end of the month. The median time taken to sell a property was also 21 days in February 2021, down from 25 days a year earlier.

The next chart presents the above data on a quarterly basis to December 2020 and shows the massive decline in selling days and listings across Perth:

Perth property listings and selling days

Perth property listings and selling days have plummeted, indicating a very tight property market.

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Perth’s rental market is also incredibly tight. The rental vacancy rate has fallen below 1% and rents are rising sharply, according to the REIWA:

Perth rental vacancy rates and rental growth

Perth’s rental vacancy rate has plummeted and rents are surging, suggesting a very tight market.

CoreLogic also reported double-digit rental growth for Perth houses and units in the year to February 2021:

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Australian rental growth by capital city

Perth houses and units recorded double-digit rental growth in the year to February 2021, according to CoreLogic.

The outlook is for further strong growth in Perth property values. As shown in the next chart, which plots new mortgage commitments against dwelling value growth, Perth mortgage demand is running at record levels:

Perth mortgage growth vs dwelling values

Mortgage demand has never been hotter, which points to strong dwelling price appreciation for Perth.

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Given historical correlations, the record mortgage demand is pointing to a mega price boom for Perth property.

The only thing that may stop the momentum is if iron ore prices crash in the second half of 2021.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.