Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar climbs with global stock surge

Asian share markets continue to fall across the region, save locally with the poor lead from Wall Street and rising concerns over COVID in Europe with Chinese shares leading the way again.  Bitcoin continues to really struggle here with another weak session going into the European session with the four hourly chart broadcasting more downside to follow as the $53K level is not far away:

The Shanghai Composite is down over 1.3% going into the close, currently at 3365 points at a new monthly low while the Hang Seng Index is fallling faster, down nearly 1.9% to 27972 points. Japanese markets are now joining in with a near 2% drop on the Nikkei 225 as it falls through the 29000 point barrier to close at 28472 points, with the USDJPY pair continuing its slower decline to the mid 108 level as Yen safe haven buying picks up despite a much stronger USD:

The ASX200 is the standout by actually putting on gains, closing 0.5% higher to 6778 points while the Australian dollar has flopped below the recent weekly lows at the 76 handle and looks extremely oversold going into the European open:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are down over 0.5% so far, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to return to last week’s intrasession low just below the key 3900 point psychological level with last night’s fill barely holding here as momentum readings turn sharply negative:

The economic calendar includes the UK inflation rate for February, and then all the flash PMI’s for Europe/Germany/UK before the US durable goods orders – a busy night!

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Comments

  1. DingwallMEMBER

    I could have sworn you would say Powell is dragging himself to another microphone tonight again. His incessant bleating when the market does not go up shows just how low CB’s (not you of course) have sunk.

  2. New Zealand …

    Australia’s Westpac Banking Corporation in ‘very early stage’ of review of its ownership of Westpac New Zealand … Gareth Vaughan … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/109676/australias-westpac-banking-corporation-reportedly-reviewing-its-ownership-westpac-new

    Australia’s Westpac Banking Corporation has confirmed it’s reviewing its ownership of Westpac New Zealand.

    The confirmation comes after a report in The Australian Financial Review’s Street Talk column saying Westpac had appointed investment bank Macquarie Capital to help with a scoping study reviewing the ownership of Westpac NZ. Options reportedly being considered include retaining the bank, spinning it off to Westpac shareholders, or selling the NZ subsidiary to new owners.

    In a statement Westpac says as part of its “fix, simplify and perform strategy” it has been actively considering the businesses it operates.

    “Westpac has already placed a number of businesses into a Specialist Businesses Division, for ultimate exit. We have also announced the consolidation of our international operations in Asia. Westpac is also assessing the appropriate structure for its New Zealand business and whether a demerger would be in the best interests of shareholders.” … read more via hyperlink above …

  3. I been thinking MB should put together a billboard fund where members could tip in some cash to fund a billboard highlighting some of our re occurring themes in this blog like property locusts, international students, population Ponzi etc.. thoughts? Anyone know going rates for prominent billboards?

  4. UPDATE … New Zealand’s housing debacle …

    Housing crisis: Landlords’ warning to increase rents not an empty threat – economists … Maddison Reedy … Newshub

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/03/housing-crisis-landlords-warning-to-increase-rents-not-an-empty-threat-economists.html

    Housing crisis: Social media users attack Jacinda Ardern over Government’s new housing plans … Rachel Sadler … Newshub

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/03/housing-crisis-social-media-users-attack-jacinda-ardern-over-government-s-new-housing-plans.html

    New Zealanders react after Finance Minister Grant Robertson says tenants will ‘go looking elsewhere’ if landlords hike rents … Mark Quinliven … Newshub NZ

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/03/new-zealanders-react-after-finance-minister-grant-robertson-says-tenants-will-go-looking-elsewhere-if-landlords-hike-rents.html

    Westpac considers sale of its New Zealand business … Matt Burrows … Newshub NZ

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/03/westpac-considers-pulling-out-of-new-zealand-market.html

    • The Travelling Albatross

      So you reckon westpacNZ is collapsing and main office want to get rid of it before that happens?

      • Sovereign Risk? Whoda thought it now applies to housing. Financialise everything including the kitchen sink!

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        That metaphorically literally happened in Parliament this week… did you not hear this one? Morrison answered a QT question about his integrity and at the end of his answer yet again dared Albo to call a no-confidence motion if Albo thought ShowMo shouldn’t be PM.

        And this time Albo did.
        He sought leave of the house to call the motion.
        And Dutto didn’t give it!

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Having sh.tted on Rupert’s doorstep, ScoMo apparently headed to the safe sanctuary of 2GB today to tell us “blokes don’t always get it right”.

      Pretty appalling if the leader of the country can’t relate to, and endeavour to promote, basic decency. The blackhole continues.

        • The Travelling Albatross

          Ermo mentioned he’s going up to the dam on weekend links, hopefully he’ll be able to stop the massive leak that flooded half of Sydney

  5. Mining BoganMEMBER

    If the pO0fs get to change the name of the golden [email protected] does that mean I can’t wear my special gold lame outfit on a Friday night?

    Just joking, I don’t thing the pillow biters are the ones who want the name changed. This is Andrew Bolt sh!t-stirring territory.

  6. pfh007.comMEMBER

    Something tasty for those who think we need to reform banking.

    No doubt the bank fanciers will give us the usual musty serve of whataboutthis!!!!!!!

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3776739

    Abstract
    For centuries, our systems of banking, money, and payments have been legally and institutionally intertwined. The fact that these three—theoretically distinct—systems have been bundled together so tightly and for so long reflects a combination of historical accident, powerful economic and political forces, path dependence, and technological capacity. Importantly, it also reflects the unique and often under-appreciated privileges and protections that the law bestows on conventional deposit-taking banks. These privileges and protections have served to entrench banks as the dominant suppliers of both money and payments: erecting significant barriers to entry, undermining financial innovation and inclusion, spurring destabilizing regulatory arbitrage, and exacerbating the “too-big-to-fail” problem. Against this backdrop, the recent emergence of a variety of new financial technologies, platforms, and policy tools hold out the tantalizing prospect of breaking this centuries-old stranglehold over our basic financial infrastructure. The essential policy problem, at least as conventionally understood, is that creating a level legal playing field would pose a serious threat to both monetary and financial stability. This Article demonstrates that this need not be the case and advances a blueprint for how we can safely unbundle banking, money, and payments, thereby enhancing competition, promoting greater financial innovation and inclusion, and ameliorating the too-big-to-fail problem.

    • Medical professional with substantial deposit and dual income unable to afford a house. She criticises the financialisation of a basic human need like shelter.

      Word is spreading among those who were previously unaffected by the house prices insanity. Affluent people will be living with their parents into their thirties or until their parents die. We’re all getting poorer and it won’t end well.

        • The Travelling Albatross

          True, but 2 factors always play when deciding to move away, social circle change and be away from family and support and finding secure jobs like what she and her husband have

          • No point trying to buy in Sydney unless you’ve got equity / capital behind you already. It’s over, it’s a joke.

            Remote work + buy anywhere else on the East Coast.

    • Damn I was gonna post that link! Looks like Labor’s fault again and too many handouts are to blame.

      They don’t even want to buy in nice areas, slags off the poor parts of Sydney. I’m so glad I left though, as much as I liked Sydney to live in, I hated renting in it.

      Now I am at least paying the bank instead of a landlord.

      On a serious note, I really do feel for them. Especially the bitterness about a friend that qualified for the 5% deposit scheme and was useless with money. Yep debt makes unattractive losers more sexy becuse they get to own assets whilst the rest of us get to suck eggs.

      It’s articles like this that remind me how fortunate I am. That and on the news I saw a small business owner had to sell his home as his travel business had gone tits up and Job Keeper was ending.

      Meanwhile ScoMo was flying over flooded areas and had time to think about all the rape going on in Canberra. What a time to be alive

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Yep. He was surveying a scene of utter devastation and disaster from a 10,000ft view.

        And then once he’d finished mentally reshuffling his cabinet he looked out the window a couple of times and thought about how his mates were all going to loose out this year on their state water buy-back money.

        Allegedly.

    • Michaela Cash as AG – wasn’t she the one who refused to give evidence in an AFP investigation? It’s hard to think of a worse person in the government to be AG than Porter, but Cash might just be it.

      • The Travelling Albatross

        With the increased talk about joshie…scomo might get jealous and demote him

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Might be a move to get the blackshirts from
        II Dutto …..the defense force is under the control of the GG….a bit safer

        • Ummm, no. “Defence serves the Government of the day and is accountable to the Commonwealth Parliament which represents the Australian people to efficiently and effectively carry out the Government’s defence policy.” No mention of Liz. As of this Friday it will be Generalissimo Spud thank you very much.

          • Someone ElseMEMBER

            The army is loyal to the Queen. The Regiment, the Army, and the Queen are the toasts. Fück raising to the government.

      • The portfolio doesn’t really gel with his modus operandi.

        Now……if they had a Dept Of Attack and Bully…..

  7. migtronixMEMBER

    Jesus billed my hotrod:

    What is one of the defining miracles that stamps theogeny on the irascible Nazaretean? Turning water into wine.

    What is the apotheosis of the Christian conservative political ascendancy? Prohibition.

    And there’s the rub, Jesus commanded his disciples to be teatottalers while gaining his creds doing the exact opposite…

    • The Travelling Albatross

      If they had good wine and lots of smashed avo they would have never been impressed with his “miracles”

      • migtronixMEMBER

        “Be sober-minded; be watchful. Your adversary the devil prowls around like a roaring lion, seeking someone to devour”

        What do you reckon?

        • China PlateMEMBER

          I don’t care how pissed you are, you’d certainly know when you were in the vicinity of a roaring lion

          • migtronixMEMBER

            And being sober isn’t going to help much even if you’re Hussain Bolt. I can’t make heads or tails of that series and I don’t know why I keep trying – it’s like living in a planet of Trekkies who argue about which cast is better and all you can see is a dumb show about people doing nothing useful. What the hell did they ever achieve in Star Trek anyway?

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      Hey Mig it was not Jesus who brought teetotalism to Saul of Tarsus’ new religion.
      It was a bunch of Pharasee’s and Saducee’s with highly developed puritanical control tendancies.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Billed. Jay wouldn’t build one, that’s getting too close to a prancing devil lion. But he’d definitely put a “Jesus ❤️ u” sticker on it…

  8. The Traveling Wilbur

    So anyone elae notice the ASX detach itself from international markets movements the last week and a bit?

    And, whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy? Can’t just be stonks going ex-dividend… it’s going up in the opposite direction, as well as down in the opposite direction!

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “Fascism is more of a natural state than democracy. To assume blithely that we can export democracy into any country we choose can serve paradoxically to encourage more fascism at home and abroad. Democracy is a state of grace that is attained only by those countries who have a host of individuals not only ready to enjoy freedom but to undergo the heavy labor of maintaining it.”

      Its Time,…
      For YOU to join up,
      For Democracys sake and to make sure Albo and his cohort don’t get lead astray by vested interests, corporate benefactors and Foreign powers.

      https://www.alp.org.au/about/join-labor/

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Sorry a Ermo, I’m supporting a local independent. There’s more power in the cross bench IMHO.

        There’s still Marles, Fitzgibbon, Bowen and Chalmers. All neo-Liberals at heart, and all career politicians.

        Candidates that have had a career out of politics and the legal profession, and I’d consider it.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Lol,…At first I thought I was reading an article in The betoota advocate.
      But it seems more like the opening salvo of a leadership spill,

      “Ms Credlin said it was Mr Abbott who reintroduced tougher standards when he was elected Liberal leader.

      “Tony Abbott understood that maintaining standards for staff was as much about keeping good ones as weeding out the bad ones,” she said.

      There is definitely going to be a big purge before of after the Election,

      “Ms Credlin said the names of other Liberal staffers involved in the masturbatory acts at Parliament House were known to her.

      “The other three that Peter van Onselen broke in his story this week, I know who you are. I see you,” she said.

      “The former minister who is alleged to have male prostitutes delivered to Parliament House … the former minister? I see you too.

      “For years I copped hit after hit from unnamed sources. I stand by every decision I made. I would do it all again. And as a woman, boy I made some enemies. I have never publicly spoken about my side before.

      “But I am not going to stay silent anymore.”

      Hilarious stuff!

      I’m wondering who is going to lead a LNP opposition.

    • Of all their virtues, I think it is the subtleness and restraint of Sky news that I have come to appreciate most.

  9. I’ve been browsing the comments to see what ‘TotesBeWoke/Rich44’ has had to say, but he seems strangely silent. I mean, all this trouble the Libs find themselves in must be Labor’s fault, because Labor are so useless. Right?

  10. The Great Dispersal and Decentralization … Technology Enabled and Covid Accelerated …

    Covid 19: A year since the first lockdown, how the pandemic has changed how and where we live … Colleen Hawkes … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/latest/124492732/covid-19-a-year-since-the-first-lockdown-how-the-pandemic-has-changed-how-and-where-we-live

    We hear about so much that has changed in the past year due to Covid-19, but we don’t always hear just how much these changes have affected how and where we live.

    But there can be little doubt housing has changed forever – none of us can escape the biggest change of all, and that relates to rapidly increasing house prices.

    And that change is top of our list of ways in which the pandemic has changed things at home since the first lockdown in March 2020.

    1. We can now work anywhere, and we’re moving … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    Microsoft research reveals almost half of employees looking to switch jobs this year … Jess Bell … HRD

    https://www.hcamag.com/nz/specialisation/employee-engagement/microsoft-research-reveals-almost-half-of-employees-looking-to-switch-jobs-this-year/250392

    … extract …

    … In Australia and New Zealand, business leaders are doing even better with 73% saying they’re thriving. Team relationships are stronger in ANZ, and people feel more freedom to be their authentic selves in a hybrid world. People in ANZ are also more likely to move now that remote work is on the table, with half saying they’re open to relocating. Discussing the findings with HRD, Emma Williams, corporate vice president of Microsoft Office Modern Workplace Transformations, said the pandemic has allowed people to live local but work global.

    “There’s no way people are going back a 9-5 working day, five days a week,” she said. “People just love the flexibility and they’re not going to want to change.” … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    … Professor David Levinson of the University of Sydney explains …

    … Essential viewing …

    The New New Normal VIDEO … David Levinson … University of Sydney / Transportist

    https://transportist.org/2020/11/03/the-new-new-normal-mobility-and-activity-in-the-after-times/

    … Housing bubbles cannot survive these inevitable immense changes …

    … A shame for the idiot ‘free fish frolickers’ … as Charles Hugh Smith explains …

    Too Busy Frontrunning Inflation, Nobody Sees The Deflationary Tsunami … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/too-busy-frontrunning-inflation-nobody-sees-deflationary-tsunami

  11. New Zealand new housing: What is being learnt from Selwyn County adjoining Christchurch ? …

    New-build housing will help next generation of first homebuyers – not this one … Jonathon Milne … Newsroom

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/housing-reforms-help-next-generation

    … extract …

    … Further south again in Selwyn, where the population has nearly tripled since the local government reforms of the 1990s, all eyes were on the Prime Minister’s announcement of the “comprehensive” housing package.

    Selwyn District Council has 18 district plan changes queued up for approval. (Previously they had a couple every year). “In the past four months we have had applications from private developers to build 11,000 new homes across the district, some in places already identified for growth and some in new areas,” says mayor Sam Broughton. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Large subdivision plan could transform rapidly growing rural Canterbury town … Liz McDonald … the Press / Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/300256988/large-subdivision-plan-could-transform-rapidly-growing-rural-canterbury-town

    COVID-19: Building industry facing supply shortage due to shipping delay … Holly Henry … Newshub

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/01/covid-19-building-industry-facing-supply-shortage-due-to-shipping-delays.html

    … extract …

    … Selwyn, the fastest-growing region in the country, has seen record numbers of building consents.

    In 2020 The Selwyn District Council saw record numbers of building consents – a 26 percent increase on the previous year – higher than their peak in the post-earthquake rebuild.

    Currently, there is such a backlog of work, the Council is urgently seeking staff to meet demand. … view and read more via hyperlink above …

  12. New Zealand’s housing debacle: The governments panicked, slapdash and incoherent response to collapsing polling support for Prime Minister Ardern …

    … The focus needs to be on land supply and infrastructure debt financing, to allow increasingly affordable new housing supply for both owners and renters …

    … Better to build out of the bubble rather than bust out of it, as the panicked (lack of real – world experienced led) New Zealand government appears hell – bent on doing …

    Anger over Government moves against property investors … Miriam Bell … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124629199/anger-over-government-moves-against-property-investors

    Removing tax deductions on interest costs for rental properties is “outrageous” and will have a negative impact on the rental market, property investors say. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Australian dollar crashes as Ardern pops housing bubble … David Llewellyn-Smith … MacroBusiness Australia

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/03/australian-dollar-crashes-as-ardern-pops-housing-bubble/

    … The polls punishing the New Zealand government … and particularly its leader …

    … New Zealand TV One Colmar Brunton poll: Slumping support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern …

    … 35% (don’t knows and no preference combined) had no choice for preferred Prime Minister …

    Labour keeps strong lead as Collins plunges further in first 1 NEWS-Colmar Brunton poll of 2021 … TVNZ

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/labour-keeps-strong-lead-collins-plunges-further-in-first-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-2021?auto=0

    Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor February 2021

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-nz/ipsos-nz-issues-monitor-february-2021

    Latest Stickybeak Issues Poll … Toby Manhire … Spinoff

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/23-02-2021/exclusive-poll-do-new-zealanders-back-the-tough-border-rules/

    … extract …

    Housing (note graph within article … just 13% not concerned)

    If there is a shadow that looms over brighter-than-expected economic news, however, it is unquestionably the housing market, where prices continue their vertiginous rise. Fifty-six per cent of people said they were very concerned about housing affordability, while only 13% said they were not at all concerned about the issue.