Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar climbs with global stock surge

Asian share markets are finishing the week in selloff mode in response to the falls in tech stocks on Wall Street overnight and the continued uptrend in sovereign bond yields.   The USD remains firm against the major currencies, although there has been a slight reprieve later in the session with some volatility around the latest BOJ interest rate meeting, but nothing out of the ordinary. Bitcoin is trying to climb back above the $58K level after its mild pullback last night alongside other undollars, but looks set to finish the week below its gap high above $60K:

The Shanghai Composite is down over 1% going into the close, currently at 3426 points while the Hang Seng Index has pulled back all of its previous gains, currently down 1.5% to 28950 points. Japanese markets are mixed with the TOPIX flat while the Nikkei 225 is currently 1% lower at 29859 points as the usually supportive USDJPY pair continues to slide slower below the 109 handle:

The ASX200 is down 0.6% going into the close capping off a bad week for local traders, currently at 6705 points while the Australian dollar has steadied somewhat at the mid 77 level against USD after its big drop overnight in line with other risk assets:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are flat so far, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to stabilise just above the key 3900 point psychological level going into the end of the week and what looks like a perilous time:

The economic calendar finishes the trading week with a whimper, a few Fed speeches and private oil rig count but not much else.

Have a good weekend and stay safe!

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Comments

  1. Risk On … Risk Off .

    There are times when you trade. There are times when you Surf.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7T1-0HrNvE

    I’ll have to be careful of surfing now. Unlike all the beautiful animals in nature, a Human Woman will probably try and have me up on a [email protected] charge for looking at her the wrong way. Best to surf alone with the boyz ;p Its like giving a 5 year old child a shotgun and saying, ” Go play, son. Dont shoot your brother. “.

    We all fight with our strengths in this world. Woman are no different. Legal Communication and Emotional Manipulation.

    So help me god, I’ll defend a man to have a peaceful life, even if it kills me.

    • Why not just admit your desires for other men? No need for all this women hating. Go get chock a block up one of your boyz and stop beating around the bush. Don’t think women will miss your magnetic charisma and positive attitude too much.

  2. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Bridesmaid, never the Bride…………
    But I’m in the photos without the monogomy!

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Haha, no, just second in line for macro afternoon comments. House wise we are leasing for 12 more months. I cannot buy into this frenzy.

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          Renting is ace. Our landlord said “2 dogs inside is fine also put holes in the wall it’s sweet” plus I don’t have a 700k mortgage and live within 5 minutes of 2 world class point breaks. With the money I save I can speculate on other insane bubbles and frenzies created by handouts and financial repression on my hand held device, whilst watering the vege garden (also doable whilst renting). Great time to be alive (other than the monolithic existential threats to earthen life)!

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I wouldn’t worry. In 10 years, there’s a 1 in 3 chance you’ll be happier than either of them.

      And if you meant that metaphorically, well, there’s a better than 1 in 3 chance markets have a significant yield related hiccup in 10 days – and then you can BTFD. 😁

  3. Weekend is off to a bad start. Cancelled a road trip due to current east coast weather but worse was yet to come. Turned on the ABC radio whilst doing stuff and was appalled to once again hear air time being given to Liz Allen. Apparently, everything will go bad and living standards will fall unless we restart the immigration. $100 on the bar the day I hear that some journalist uses simple piece of the pie maths and economics to explode that bs.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      It happens from time to time, usually after she’s unearthed something that really, REALLY, annoys the LNP.

      • I wonder if it was for the thread about the SMH publishing the answer to a question from Chris Uhlmann before he had even asked it?

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          She locked her account straight after that.

          She gets a lot of grief by all accounts, and a lot of LNP cronies trying to dox her.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Morrison took a dorothy dixer from Chris Uhlmann at a press conference and gave an answer that had been reported in the paper half an hour earlier. It was the only press conference Scummo had given that day. Reported half an hour before he said it.

            Obviously a set-up but Uhlmann was too stupid to get his timing right.

  4. This one – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1hCLBTD5RM
    and this one – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vG12YzlX0_I
    and this one – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRZm30foAW0
    and hundreds more lol.

    Personally, I blame the Boomers. Now woman are angry too lol.

    These are not my problems. I didnt cause them. I didnt start them. Im sure as hell not taking responsibility for it.

    Time to live in the bush. A shotgun behind the door and tell Australian Society to just leave us the fck alone.

    Im not taking responsibility for something the Boomers did to themselves lol.

    My job is to live a happy and healthy life… and thats what I intend to do. Boomers can die for all I care.

  5. When I go shopping, one of my little games is ” Spot the White Vans “.

    They are everywhere and people are living out of them. Homeless.

    I was driving my car on the road and sitting behind this white van. I could see through the rear window of the van and into the vehicle. Two people sleeping in the back of the van ha ha.

    When I parked in the car park of the shopping center, I took a look around in the car park. White vans everywhere lol. Im pretty sure I didnt see that many White Vans a month ago. Its like they just sprung up or something. I dunno.

    White Vans everywhere. Everyones living out of there car. What does all this mean? I dunno.

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      It is the black vans with heavily tinted windows that you really need to look out for.
      The ones monitoring the consent app.

    • Everyone is #vanlyfing right now.

      The underlying reason is cause most of these people have accepted that they’ll never own a house. Whilst they’re young and free it’s all such a lark! Unfortunately many will end up in one of the soon to be established permanent van parks for the lower classes. Similar to the US style trailer parks. Aussies have always spent time in caravan parks and crew have always found a cheap place to park up long term, but I reckon it’ll get much, much more prevalent and much, much less amenable lifestyle choice. These new wave van parks will be seedy places of entrenched desperation.

  6. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Greensill’s Australian arm going into liquidation owing $1.75 billion.

    Are the creditors local?

    • Whyalla wipeout.

      I’m not sure who is still holding exposure to them … will be “interesting”.

      Harder for the firms that used them as they need to switch pretty quick. That say Gupta was the main client but there are others that will be impacted – that said, do your diligence ….

    • If the dumb*ss had bought property, he’d been perfectly a-ok, but noooo, he had other ideas.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Housing. Housing and pharmaceuticals. The two things you can never go broke investing in in Australia.

        Pharmaceuticals and housing. The two things boomers can never get enough of.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Yes they did …
        Guess it’s due to the skills shortage

        HTF did the country build trains ,planes and automobiles in 1940 when the population was only 7 million ?
        I have a sneaking suspicion that Australia was actually a clever country then …..

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Not even that long ago. The crowd here could get together and knock some up. It’s not that hard.

          There’s just no political will.

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            0ne hundred thousand million spent on job keeper might have gone a fair way to creating a few ferries or trains

            But at least Harvey Norman is still selling imported stylish home goods

          • Exactly TT and MB. Makes me sick.

            I’d love to rip Harvey Norman’s front gates down like in the Castle.

            And yet Cartier Watches are the problem.. of course.

          • I boycott Harvey’s for electronics and household appliances I know they are cheap but I look elsewhere.

            Don’t understand why people buy furniture from there in any case.

    • The Incomparable Mr Flannery

      Give James Valentine and HG’s Even Greater Sydney Planning Commission from today a run. Hilarious. The ferries don’t reverse! And have asbestos! PoorBradfield!

      • For a split second it appears that the ALP is standing up for the rights of Australian workers. Then you realise that whilst they may be standing up for the rights of workers, they aren’t necessarily Australian workers. In all probability they are not Australian workers.

      • Gosh, those Aussie farmers are scum of the earth.

        Acting like that should disqualify them from controlling our country’s precious farm land.

        Under the award, the piece rate allows workers to be paid according to the amount of fruit they harvest, and must offer the average worker up to 15 per cent more per hour than the minimum wage.

        The wording “up to” is unlikely to be in the award. Assuming the average worker is to be paid 15% more than minimum wage then the calculation could easily be done at the end of each day.

        hours worked in total = A
        units picked in total = B
        minimum wage = C

        Therefore piece rate per unit for that day = C * 1.15 * A / B

        And if the greedy farmer doesn’t have the skill to calculate this proper amount, the bastard can be jailed and a mathematically skilled immigrant can be imported to run the farm in his place.

    • I’m not convinced of a cliff yet – there’s genuine productive inflation in the present and the future. It’s bad for speculative stocks, but should be good for the stock pickers.

      I concede that some stock depreciation is probably inevitable as the price of debt increases, but am not (yet!) convinced of a crash.

      My 2c

    • My problem is, I can’t time the market. It’s a bit like boy crying wolf at this point. I know eventually it will crash, but sitting out has its own risks.

      • Understood.

        I think it’s fair to take profits when they are there, after deciding where to put the profits next, and/or having a plan to get back in.

    • Started buying into it with small change in January. I think it’s got legs, though that article doesn’t cover it very well

    • I didn’t read it, but I’m sure that the main reason MMT is adopted these days is because it allows the powers that be to kick the can down the road the furthest and longest…? 😉

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Imagine what happens if one of them has to take leave?!

      And/or calls someone else a lying cow. Or similar. To be frank, two nobodies trying to run a party and handle media all by themselves? For three years?… it will not end well.

    • I doubt the female would have been put into a safe Lib seat unless she knew her place. No, better left to the man to do the important stuff and she can get the coffees and do the dishes. Behind every good bloke is some sheila.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        “Female”? Why on earth do you refer to women like livestock?

        Then you refer to a man, as man not male.

        Woman, singular. Women, plural. Simples.

        Be a gentleman. You’ll feel better for it.

      • nope
        ‘Liberals lose party status
        With the Liberals reduced to just two seats, they have lost their official opposition party status to the WA Nationals, which managed to hang on to four seats.

        Under WA’s Public Sector Management Act, the Liberals would not qualify for important Parliamentary resources once they lost opposition status. ‘

  7. Remote working update …

    … Are you a property bubble ‘free fish frolicker’ like New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, setting yourself up for the financial and political trash heap (check out latest TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll … and too … latest Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor) ? … read Charles Hugh Smith at bottom …

    Mirror owner to tell most journalists to permanently work from home … Jim Waterson … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/19/mirror-owner-tell-most-journalists-permanently-work-from-home-reach

    One of the UK’s leading news publishers is calling time on the traditional newspaper office, with the owner of the Daily Mirror set to tell the vast majority of its journalists that they will permanently work from home in future. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Ford paves the way as the first automaker to allow 86,000 employees to work from home permanently … Miguel Ángel Moreno Ramos and Jeevan Ravindran … Business Insider

    https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-general-motors-toyota-remote-work-home-pandemic-coronavirus-office-2021-3?r=AU&IR=T

    • Ford has become the first auto company to announce employees can work from home in the long-term.

    • The company will explore flexible arrangements from July, depending on individual responsibilities.

    • A survey showed 95% of employees wanted a hybrid form of working and felt more productive at home. … read more via hyperlink above …

    BA (British Airways) ponders sale of Waterside HQ as more staff work from home … Gwyn Topham … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/19/ba-ponders-sale-of-waterside-hq-as-more-people-work-from-home

    … Are you a ‘free fish frolicker’ … Charles Hugh Smith … OfTwoMinds blog / Zerohedge explains …

    Too Busy Frontrunning Inflation, Nobody Sees The Deflationary Tsunami … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/too-busy-frontrunning-inflation-nobody-sees-deflationary-tsunami

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    Those looking up from their “free fish!” frolicking will see the tsunami too late to save themselves.

    It’s an amazing sight to see the water recede from the bay, and watch the crowd frolic in the shallows, scooping up the flopping fish. In this case, the crowd doing the “so easy to catch, why not grab as much as we can?” scooping is frontrunning inflation, the universally expected result of the Great Reflation Trade.

    You know the Great Reflation Trade: the world has saved up trillions, governments are spending trillions, it’s going to be the greatest boom since the stone masons partied at the Great Pyramid in Giza. It’s so obvious that everyone has jumped in the water to scoop up all the free fish (i.e. stock market gains). Only an idiot would hesitate to frontrun the Great Reflation’s guaranteed inflation.

    Unless, of course, what we really have is a tale of reflation, told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Charles Hugh Smith is a hard line gold bug Austrian economist money crank that thinks economics is a creative narrative story telling exercise about the proverbial ***imaginary village***. Enviably everything starts off with money and simultaneously ignoring everything that precedes it, thus all context is lost at the beginning, and everything after that is just a sermon.

      Fun fact … why would anyone use hard currency metrics on a soft currency … maybe because without it the whole narrative collapses …

      • New Zealand: Canterbury residential development update …

        Large subdivision plan could transform rapidly growing rural Canterbury town … Liz McDonald … the Press / Stuff NZ

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/300256988/large-subdivision-plan-could-transform-rapidly-growing-rural-canterbury-town

        A major new subdivision will transform a small rural town on the outskirts of Christchurch as growth outside the city limits continues to accelerate.

        New homes for 5400 residents could be built in the town of Lincoln if a bid by Carter Group succeeds.

        The company, headed by developer and investor Philip Carter, wants the Selwyn District Council to rezone 186 hectares of farmland for 2000 new sections and a small commercial area.

        The project would hugely increase the size of Lincoln, which now has about 2900 households and 8100 residents. It is planned for land now used for dairying and grazing on the south side of the central Canterbury town. … read more via hyperlink above …
        .
        .
        Recent report on Selwyn County … adjoining Christchurch …

        COVID-19: Building industry facing supply shortage due to shipping delay … Holly Henry … Newshub

        https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/01/covid-19-building-industry-facing-supply-shortage-due-to-shipping-delays.html

        … extract …

        … Selwyn, the fastest-growing region in the country, has seen record numbers of building consents.

        In 2020 The Selwyn District Council saw record numbers of building consents – a 26 percent increase on the previous year – higher than their peak in the post-earthquake rebuild.

        Currently, there is such a backlog of work, the Council is urgently seeking staff to meet demand. … view and read more via hyperlink above …
        .
        .
        Pressure mounting for more residential subdivisions in Timaru … Joanne Holden and Matthew Littlewood … Stuff NZ

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/124518165/pressure-mounting-for-more-residential-subdivisions-in-timaru

        • Yes I remember your old Qld Sunshine Coast developer lobbyist activities pre GFC, I pointed it out here on MB years ago. BTW where is old Phil your mate and the endless promotion of Texas as the supreme economic example – ?????

          • When will the NZ Governments Ardern, Robertson and Woods be asked why 25 year old Dallas based school teacher Lani Huang on $US 58,400 annual income, bought her first home a year ago for $US 155,000 … 2.66 times her SINGLE EAERNER income ? (further extensive background information http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org front page 2020 Section … scroll down to FURTHER UPDATE) …

            How a 25-year-old teacher making $58,000 in Dallas spends her money … VIDEO . CNBC

            https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/12/17/58k-a-year-dallas-millennial-money-lani-huang.html

          • And that is relevant to the broader economic out look for Texas how – ???? – in the long run and dog boxes are not homes, its bait for creating REMBS for investors …

          • Two-Thirds Of Manhattan White-Collar Workers Will Not Return To Office Full-Time, Survey Says … Zerohedge

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/two-thirds-manhattan-white-collar-workers-will-not-return-full-time-survey-says

            “Working from home” or at least some sort of the “hybrid” work model (a combination of work-at-home and office) could be the “new normal,” according to a new study of Manhattan’s largest employers.

            Despite COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and virus-related infections, hospitalizations, and deaths declining in recent months, the Partnership for New York City released a survey this week that found 22% of Manhattan’s most prominent employers would require workers to return to the office on a full-time basis.

            About 66% of respondents said they would adopt a hybrid work model, where employees will bounce between home and office during the workweek. 9% of respondents said workers would not be required to return to the office. … read more via hyperlink above …

          • UPDATE …

            ‘Can you help me?’: The quiet desperation of New Zealand’s housing crisis … Ellen Hunt … The Guardian
            … h/t GF …

            https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/20/can-you-help-me-the-quiet-desperation-of-new-zealands-housing-crisis

            With prices soaring, many fear they will never be able to buy. Others will try anything as the crisis threatens to define a generation … read more via hyperlink above …
            .
            .
            Free up the land … Michael Reddell … Croaking Casandra
            … h/t DB …

            https://croakingcassandra.com/2021/03/19/free-up-the-land/

            I suggested on Twitter yesterday that the Green Party’s new housing policy – as articulated on BusinessDesk here by Julie Anne Genter – was absolutely right about the urgency of the issue (actually reform has been overdue for the best part of 30 years) and the need for boldness, but quite wrong about proposed policy responses, which seemed to tackle symptoms while failing to get to the heart of the matter. BusinessDesk invited me to submit a piece offering my solutions. That column came out this afternoon, and is here (not behind the paywall). … read more via hyperlink above …
            .
            .
            … The median price for serviced lots / sections in the United States is about $US 50,000.

            When can we expect to see similar pricing restored (yes, that’s all … not invented) in Australia and New Zealand ? … extensive further information http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org

            Lot Values Hit Record Highs (U.S 50,000 median price per serviced Lot) … Natalia Sineavskaia … U.S National Association of Home Builders

            https://eyeonhousing.org/2019/11/lot-values-hit-record-highs/

  8. Visualizing The World’s Deadliest Pandemics By Population Impact … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/visualizing-worlds-deadliest-pandemics-population-impact

    Humanity has been battling against disease for centuries.

    And while most contagious outbreaks have never reached full-blown pandemic status, Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang notes that there have been several times throughout history when a disease has caused mass devastation.

    Here’s a look at the world’s deadliest pandemics to date, viewed from the lens of the impact they had on the global population at the time. … read more via hyperlink above …

  9. New Zealand’s housing horror show … continues …

    … When do the authorities intend to simply allow more affordable new housing to be built … and learn from Selwyn County adjoining Christchurch ? …

    Is $745k reasonable for a one-bedroom house? Wellington property draws ire of housing advocates … Ethan Te Ora … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/124581254/is-745k-reasonable-for-a-onebedroom-house-wellington-property-draws-ire-of-housing-advocates

    Off the ladder: Indian family told to cook ‘aromatic food’ in garage days before moving into rental … Geraden Cann … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/300248469/off-the-ladder-indian-family-told-to-cook-aromatic-food-in-garage-days-before-moving-into-rental

    … access more Stuff NZ articles …

    Housing Affordability Section – Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability

    ‘Can you help me?’: The quiet desperation of New Zealand’s housing crisis … Ellen Hunt … The Guardian
    … h/t GF …

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/20/can-you-help-me-the-quiet-desperation-of-new-zealands-housing-crisis