Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

JPM: Sell Australian dollar with both hands

Asian share markets continue to fall despite the solid run on Wall Street on Friday night as the US unemployment print signalled good times ahead for the US economy. The USD continues to firm against everything, although Bitcoin gapped above the $50K level this morning and is having a stab at breaking through its previous weekly false high with four hourly ATR resistance at the $52K level yet to be broken:

The Shanghai Composite is falling down fast, now off by 1.7% going into the close, currently at 3439 points while the Hang Seng Index is down 1.5% to 28839 points. Japanese markets are falling too with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.4% lower to break through its three month long uptrend while the usually supportive USDJPY pair is hovering at just above the 108.40 level:

The ASX200 is the odd one out, actually finishing 0.4% higher at 6739 points while the Australian dollar gapped above the 77 handle following Friday night’s all-important NFP print, but is making no headway at all going into the European session:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are down around 0.3% with NASDAQ futures off by more than 1%, as Friday night’s action looks to be a one off fill by the BTFD crowd. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 shows that bounce after briefly breaking the downtrend channel but not yet getting out of trouble as it remains unable the upper downtrend line from the early February lows :

The economic calendar starts the week in a nominally quiet mode, although tonight’s Treasury auctions may be more closely watched than previously.

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    • Charles MartinMEMBER

      Probably more important than Harry and Meghans interview, but by the way that’s getting rammed down your throat via TV and the interwebs, it seems to be most important news of the day/week/month/year so far.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Apparently the Queen was worried the royal baby wouldn’t be a proper white cnvt.

        • DingwallMEMBER

          I assume Oprah’s “team” ensured the usual “We need to give a few juicy droppings…………Now Meghan, the Queen told you she adores children but did she say it dripping with “dark” (get it) undertones?……………. please think long and hard about this Meghan … it could be worth your while … cha ching!”

          • Haywood Jablome

            We can’t know, but it isn’t too difficult to envisage a scenario where a naively old-fashioned but innocent enquiry as to the likely colour of the baby’s skin could be turned into an offensive outrage by someone looking to score points or get attention.

        • Her Royal Highness was still having PTSD from that preacher’s sermon at the Wedding

        • Yeah that’s the advantage of inbreeding: you may end up with some loopy side-effects but the level of pigmentation will be a given.

    • It was Porter

      I don’t really understand why it’s always mentioned first. Not much relevance for most of us.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Well prices of houses and ethics get a pretty regular run around these parts too – and you haven’t b1tched about those. Is there some criterion you use other than possessing it personally that we should be aware of?

  1. If the gov swapped its front bench with the MAFS contestants it would improve the gender balance while decreasing the number of sleazes and narcissistic sociopaths. Question time would also become more civil. I wonder how the GG can make this happen.

      • – There seem to be A LOT OF folks short T-bonds. Everyone thinks there is going to be (runaway) inflation and therefore thinks rates will go (much) higher. They say there will be a repeat of the 1970s when there was rising rates and rising (price) inflation. So people are shot T-bonds. When the shorts unwind their trade rates wil/could be forced (much) lower.
        – Yes, rates will – one day – higher and kill the economy but my personal opinion not before a sharp spike to the downside. We’ll have to wait and see who is wrong and right in this rate debate.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          +1.95. Entirely agree. But the current excitement may have some time to run yet is all I would add.

        • What part of Volcker’s war on wages escapes some due to over heating from the Vietnam war during the 70s, taxes could have been a better tool but where is the fun in that, not too mention taxing the wealthy is stealing w/a side of destroying trickle down flows ….. and here I though traders were the smart[tm] people on the planet …

          • – Volcker didn’t “wage a war on wages”. It was the corporate sector who squashed (price) by keeping a lid on wage growth and therefore (price) inflation. NOT the FED.

          • Volcker jacked IR to stave off the over heating economy because taxes were not a political option at the time, see ideological breathers. That was the infection point for wages and productivity diverging

    • Urgh. I have some sympathy for the sector as it was clearly most covid / recession hit whilst others made gravy … BUT, it’s not really a massively productive sector of the economy is it? I mean, it employs *SOME* people but we are finding out that it’s largely an unnecessary luxury. The govt should step in and get these people jobs doing something else. If China starts a hot war then no one is coming to spend $$$ at a lavender farm. But we could do with some manufacturing in this country …

    • The Traveling Wilbur's-sure-to-raise-prices

      • The Travelling Albatross

        lucky i bought a couple last year! they worth a lot now, i might list them at christies auction room

  2. Oprah is not happy about the baby skin colour conversation …

    Good! Use your aggressive feelings, sister. Let the hate flow through you.

    Will be scanning Kangaroo Court of Australia to find out which member of the Royal Family dropped that one ….

  3. How Law Made Neoliberalism

    If we are to emerge from this era of crisis, we need legal thinking that operates on fundamentally different presumptions.

    In other hilarious news the Greens in the U.S. have adopted the AMI Banking and Monetary head shrinking platform ….. mirth …. guess that means pft and pals will have to start voting Greens …. lmmao ….

      • “”Under the Twentieth-Century Synthesis, areas of law that concern aspects of “the economy”—for example, contracts, corporations, and antitrust—were given over to a “law and economics” approach that emphasized wealth maximization. Meanwhile, other values—such as equality, dignity, and privacy—were supposed to be realized in constitutional law and areas of public administration. Shaped by these ideological currents, constitutional law turned away from concerns of economic power, structural inequality, and systemic problems of racial subordination. Other “public law” areas did the same. The result was that deep structures of power at the meeting place of state and economy were shielded from legal remedy and came to seem increasingly natural.”

        Fkn look out the window ….

        • There are no hereditary kings in America and no powers not created by the Constitution

          ACLU v. NSA (2006).

          Dunce’s corner for you …

          • And that is retaliative to the link in anyway – ????? – or the corporatist lobbying for the right judiciary and the funding of legal schools to stock the pond. What does divine right have to do with oligarchical social networks and their advocacy – self interest[s.

          • Still has nothing to do with the BK link … same goes for Rhodesia …

            “Beginning in the 1970s, under the influence of conservative scholars (including Professor, later Judge, Robert Bork), antitrust law abandoned this original theory. In its place, it refocused on the goal of low prices (called “consumer welfare”). Antitrust law followed neoclassical economics in assuming that behemoths are generally large because they are delivering good value, not because they are accumulating too much power. This conviction also presumed that corporate shortcomings would be revealed by new competitors, reinterpreting the waning of competition as attributable to the efficiencies of dominant business.

            Now our banks are too big to fail, Amazon and Facebook are public infrastructures in private hands, and the super-concentrated meat industry is producing supply-chain breakdowns as COVID-19 devastates slaughterhouse workers. This regime is not serving the general welfare, let alone the purposes of freedom and democracy that were once its anchors.”

            Then some here on MB now wonder about Gates et al …. all this on the back of the libertarian coat tails … some now only diverge on the social sorts but as we can see even the cosmopolitan Greens can get sucked into the right libertarian economic narrative supplied by AMI …. funnie stuff ….

  4. DingwallMEMBER

    How is this d!ckhead still in a job? He has made himself public enemy No.1 and those scrote Liberals have cheered him on.

    Mr Barilaro said this would put the “nail in the coffin” of farmers by restricting their rights to clear their land.

    Rights to clear land my arse…… Many farmers are actually doing the right thing for their properties and planting more trees.,

    • I’m living in the past and 4 Corners hasn’t started here yet. What’s being revealed?

      • Don’t bother footsie: sequels are never as good as the original. They missed their chance to scoop this story when they pulled their punches back in November.

      • Shane Dowling scooped Louise Milligan a week ago, because he is prepared to put his money where his HTML, is and your ABC is not. So a total non event.

  5. ALP into 2.20 to win the next election on Sportsbet.

    Could Albo Bradbury his way to the Lodge?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      The Unloosable Election II –
      “This time it’s still non binding.”

  6. How was this missed, you shunse?

    COVID pandemic golden boy Greg Hunt was at the scene of the crime!!!

    The plot thickens on this one mateys so listen up and stop worrying about Skip’s nonsensical ramblings I say!!

    Recalls me much the tale of a murder in Patterson NJ in 1966, as sung by my main man R Dylan:

    Cop said, wait a minute, boys, this one’s not dead
    So they took him to the infirmary
    And though this man could hardly see
    They told him that he could identify the guilty men

    • All that indicates is that there is more than one master debater in federal cabinet, which is hardly a revelation.

      • Are you drunk, bro? This is bigger news than the time Reusa when to Pattaya and found out – the hard way – that all that glitters is not female!

          • happy valleyMEMBER

            In Reusa’s defence, quoting from someone else he would say that it simply did not happen, it simply did not happen – got it.

    • Ramblings about a *criminal* investigation of a crime that happens how many times a day here in Australia and has what bearing on what *criminal* economic acts that were committed – on everyone – for how many decades – and now a virus has put a spotlight on that no amount of sophist PR/marketing can …. oh look ….. squirrel away – ????

      Those ramblings you say ….

      The whole thing has about as much relevance in economics as the Harry Meg Oprah clown car.

  7. On a more serious note, this clamouring for an inquiry into Porter as seen on Media Watch, may be a case of ‘be careful what you wish for …’

    The friends of the victim seem to think they will all get to have their 15 minutes in the spotlight to relate their hearsay evidence about what they were told.

    Fair enough, as it would not be a criminal trial, so no formal rules of evidence.

    But I reckon the gloss will wear off that idea real fast when they see a very long parade of witnesses for Porter, each relating how he told them that he never did it.

    A couple of highly paid body language analysts for each side (like that tool who appeared on Bachelor in Paradise to confirm that the contestants were all deads__t drunken bogans, perhaps) and you’ve got yourself a genuine 3 ringed circus …

    Oh, did I forget to mention the full psychiatric history of the victim courtesy of St Vincents and RNSH …

  8. Rikki StocksMEMBER

    Some things I remember about Mr Porter from my university days; he was always very careful to refuse a toke on the joint, for what I presumed at the time, were concerns for his political future.
    Second hand info here: Stands up in front of the crowd at a debate and declares “My name is Christian Porter & chicks dig me”
    He took his fathers nickname & applied it to himself while at UWA, see the Wikipedia article for Chilla Porter.
    I also remember assessing him as a twat.