Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Will Bitcoin destroy the US dollar?

Asian stocks have rebounded sharply across the region, starting the week on a more positive tone compared to the carnage on bond and currency markets at the end of last week, with the falls on Wall Street seemingly contained already as S&P futures bounceback in kind. Bitcoin has started the week meakly as expecting, opening at the $46K level after falling down to the mid-week crash level on Friday night – the low $45K’s the area to watch ahead:

The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 1% going into the close, currently at 3539 points while the Hang Seng Index is now up over 1.1% or to 29302 points, still nowhere near its near 3% drop on Friday. Japanese markets are bouncing back the hardest with the Nikkei 225 about to close 2.1% higher at 29582 points while the USDJPY pair is holding on, starting the week in its new monthly high above the 106 handle:

The ASX200 also took in the big bounce, lifting more than 1.7% to almost get back above the 6800 point level, helped along with some RBA bond buying, while the Australian dollar was able to put in a 50 pip “recovery”, back to the mid 75’s but this is not a pretty chart:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lifting firmly going into the European opening session with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a desire to return back to the previous mid-week highs but volatility still inhibiting any further upside for now:

The economic calendar is packed tonight, with German inflation figures for February the big one first, then the US manufacturing PMI print followed by a slew of central bank speeches that are likely to add to bond and currency market volatility.

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    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Notwithstanding that’s a decent hike, who as a retail depositor would want to lock their money up at 1.75% pa for 5 years?

  1. – I have stopped a long time ago following what central banks/bankers are saying.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    Fair warning: bailed out of the long ASX position at the close today. So sky is the limit tomorrow no doubt.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Started at looking at buying a few coins (not Bitcoin) (to do some transactions) for the first time last week as it happens.

        Then the exchange I would have brokered the purchase through got shutdown. That freaked even me out a bit.

        Thinking about purchasing a Lib membership next.

        PS I’d tell you what the coins were going to be for but I only have 1 account on here left.

        • A Lib membership. Nice. Is it allowed to join Labor at the same time and jinx them both? Greens and Nationals to form a Coalition government and damn us all to hell. Not much choice on offer really…

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Patience grasshopper. Patience.

            Besides, if Labor managed to get elected (I said if) then they’d self-implode while in govt again anyway. I.e. without my assistance.

  3. They are scrubbing the interwebs. That reduces suspicion and inspires confidence that the allegation has no merit.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      The ABC are running at the highest possible rotation the news that the accusations are being absolutely rejected by the relevant Cabinet Minister (unnamed).

      What they failed to mention is at least two of the other potential candidates had to name check the victim first. Allegedly.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          No Swampy, no. Just a metaphor for the enormous amount of rot hiding in the woodpile… it is apparently never-ending given this latest set of declaration and circumstance. Allegedly.

          And yes you pedants – metaphor – so don’t bother. 😁

        • Posts on Twitter: gone! Photos and stories of achievements in particular extra curricular activities: gone! Editing wars on wikipedia pages. Though how much of that last one is a scrubbing and how much is wiki cleaning up after pre emptive edits is unknown to me.

          Apparently there was some scrubbing around the accused for Miss Higgins as well.

          • I think anyone can delete a post. They went back quite far. Unless the Minister, or their comms team, just happened to stop posting.

      • “The ABC are running at the highest possible rotation the news that the accusations are being absolutely rejected by the relevant Cabinet Minister (unnamed).”

        So the LNP are pragmatically accepting the validity of he said, she said on a case by case basis.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      What sort of school is Hale considering they’re willing to remove a whole lot of their history to protect a politician?

      They must want a PM bad.

  4. MathiasMEMBER

    Gold and Silver going in opposite directions. Most days I’d think thats wierd but not these days lol.

    ScoMo has a good cry over Aged Care while Rape happens and House Prices Rise

    “Life is to be lived every single second, every single minute. It is precious. This is something I have believed my entire life, life is precious,” he told reporters from Kirribilli House.

    “You don’t wait it out. And the fact that Australians feel they are waiting out their life, it’s impossible to put into words how you respond to that.”

    When the cost of living goes through the roof, its obvious.

    Blah Blah Blah… Blah Blah Blah… ” Im Scott Morrison “… Blah Blah Blah… Blah Blah Blah… ” I love myself “… Blah Blah Blah… Blah Blah Blah… ” Im going to say nothing but use many words to do it “… Blah Blah Blah…

    Dave Lee – The South China Sea heats up as USA battleships enter

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      “ScoMo has a good cry over Aged Care”

      It was very personal he said – meaning?

      Was it just SFM and Hunt at the media event and Colbeck nowhere to be seen?

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          So, the LNP have been totally asleep on the aged care industry for 8 years because … the private sector always does everything better, so need to worry … and now the taxpayer may be levied so that the taxpayer can fix up the gubmint’s failures?

          At least zero taxpaying boomer excess franking “refund” leaners wouldn’t have to pay any levy as they are not taxpayers?

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            That they can “earn” 160k pa tax free from their investments has me hoping they suffers the worst kind of elder abuse at the hands of their under paid future carers.
            Just to bring some balance to the universe.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        I heard scomo on radio national this evening on aged care Royal Commission.
        It’ll be hard ,It’ll be difficult
        What a whinger, What does he paid twice as much as the President of the USA for if not to do te “Difficult”
        Just do it Dude.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          There was an ABC journo lady at the press conference asking some very good questions as Scummo’s mood got darker and darker. Don’t remember her name but she was all over details. As Scummo’s answers got nastier a little half smile reached her lips. She knew she had him and Scummo was filthy.

          He’s trying to do nothing and she showed him up for the bludger he is. She’ll be barred now. Probably raided too. Maybe even a midnight visit from Christian Porter if Scummo is angry enough. That’ll learn her.

          Edit: It was Anne Connolly. She won awards last year reporting on the private health care disaster.

    • MathiasMEMBER

      On March 1st, 2021, Scott Morrison said: ” You don’t wait it out. And the fact that Australians feel they are waiting out their life, it’s impossible to put into words how you respond to that. ”

      That quote needs to be written into a plaque and hung outside the Liberal office.

      After 15 years, Scott Morrison is finally starting to realise that he’s destroyed the next 20 years of Australia. When Australia goes into deep depression, there’ll be a nice plaque hanging outside the Liberal Office as a reminder for how we got there. Maybe they can hang one on the ANZAC memorial opposite Canberra as Im sure the damage this is going to cause is going to exceed the deaths during the entire World War.

      Many have already suicided. Young Aussies with bright futures ahead of them who’s lives got cut short.

      An eye for an eye. A tooth for a tooth. Scott Morrison, you owe me for 14 dead aussie mates. Your words are not good enough.

      Remember that Quote. On this day, Scott Morrison finally started to see it.

        • I know it goes against MB’s advice ( which I respect highly ). I have the greatest respect for David but its testament to just how much I dont trust Baby Boomers. I dont give financial advice and Im definitely not a hedge fund trader. I just do what I do for myself. I think anyone who’s a non-Boomer stands a better chance of retiring if they spend there hard earned cash into Commodities. I suspect Central Banks are starting to realise there Fiat Currency is going to die if they dont act quickly ( they might be right ). MB is right that if we see huge amounts of money printing then its probably going to do bad things for Commodities. Nevertheless, Im in it for the long game. Im going to buy and hold. If prices continue to fall then great. I’m going to keep on buying. Its basically my retirement strategy. I have zero confidence in Australias Currency, Bonds, Stocks and I think Real Estate is over priced. I pretty much dont trust anything thats owned by Boomers as I figure sooner or later, they’ll be causing a crash and coming after everyones money.

          I think the entire system is one great big ponzi. Your starting to see the cracks now. Its becoming obvious. Im thinking around 2028 ( if I live that long ), it’s all probably going to go tits up off the back of Baby Boomer deaths which will continue to ramp up till 2038. If that doesnt diminish growth in this country then I suspect rising Social Inequality will strangle it before the end.

          I think the vast majority of people are in an urgent hurry to chase Yield. I myself, am chasing financial preservation and less Risk. I’d rather work for a living and invest so I have money at the end. Judging from all I’ve seen ( and been abused at for being wrong ), I have absolutely no confidence that this system is solvent, its inequalities are going to last and all this debt will ever be paid back.

          Yeah, I think there will be huge money printing but I have a feeling that a lot of its going to find its way into commodities eventually. Sooner or later, unless we have perfect Governance ( Im really not a believer ), then I just cant see how any of this does anything for the young.

          I think America and Australia are both ruled by Baby Boomers. Those Boomers are going to try and feather there nest as best as they can. They virtually own the Financial System and when the cash runs low, they’ll be skimming from the system as much as they can. I feel the best thing for Milennials and young people to do is to just ignore it, toss your hard earned savings into commodities, wait till your retirement and by then I suspect those Commodities are going to be worth a fortune. Im starting to have no confidence in this Boomer run Financial System what-so-ever and the more I start to see whats going on, the more I want to remove myself from it. The moneys going to run out eventually and when it does, Im just waiting for the Boomers to bring about a crash and run away with everyones money.

          Feel free to criticise at your own leisure ;p

      • my toranaMEMBER

        I do join you in caring about the current and future suicides. If only people could see that they should wait and things will change. But being marginalised in our society can be very very tough.

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Oh wow. This boom is way beyond! So ace!!
    Anyone who doesn’t love boom times is pure evil and an enemy of the people.

    • The Travelling Albatross

      My friend bought whole block of apartments (13 units) he is avid follower of yours
      can i come with him to your parties?

  6. Mr SquiggleMEMBER

    I am a bit slow at some things. The debating world championships seem to be held in January of each year, at least for the last decade or so.. I can’t find any dates for the events in the 1980s, eg 1988. Might some of the leading candidates be below the age of consent in early 1988?

    • The relevance of the debating championships event is not well established. Speculation about this event has sparked a flurry of intrigue on twitter / wikipedia / reddit, but no one has even alleged that the criminal act in question occurred at this event, only that it occurred in Sydney at some time in 1988.

      The reference to the debating event has literally come out of thin air. Why?

      Now if I were in the firing line and the guilty party or allied to them (not the one being most frequently named on twitter etc) and knew that there was an event that another Cabinet member was definitely at (and I was not), then I would definitely chuck this smoke grenade.

      Just not sure we are not being played here

      • “Just not sure we are not being played here” yeah, with you doing the fingering. I think it fairly well established who has been accused – Scrotomo has even spoken to the bloke about the matter – and it seems likely that in the 31 page document a bit more detail was provided than “some time in 1988” But nice try.

  7. Is scummo serious with the aged care tax?
    After shutting down economies to save the oldies now we need to pay more to keep them alive to sit on overpriced houses so they can be passed to their own kids.
    Meanwhile there are women being raped in his govt. Fk that. Im not voting for that next election. Bring on the melt down on LNPs watch.

  8. my toranaMEMBER

    So Andrew Barr, Canberra, was heard lamenting, this week, that we were down 5000 international students and how each one brought in $50,000 to the ACT economy. How Otis and I laughed! Anyway, by a process of logic doesn’t that mean about 5000 beds or say 1000 homes are now not occupied? Why are market forces so flaccid that this isn’t apparent? I can’t help feeling that this was going to have been the worst year imaginable for renting and finding homes if we hadn’t had the pandemic and that the overlords were looking forward to it. (Hoping the current pandemic boom is just a lot of irrational pent up demand that will deflate soon).

  9. Container shipping and supply disruption …

    China’s exporters hit by global shortage of shipping containers … Financial Times

    Chaos In Steel Market As Manufacturers Battered By Shortages, Soaring Prices … Zerohedge

    Singapore port faces container congestion amid surge in vessel calls … S&P Global

    Going to great lengths to track real carrier service performance … Drewry / Hellenic Shipping News

  10. Sydney and Melbourne rank in top 10 on global list of least affordable housing markets … 7News

    Two Australian cities have featured near the top in a global list they certainly didn’t want to be a part of.

    Sydney and Melbourne were ranked third and sixth respectively on a new list of the world’s least affordable housing markets.

    Produced as part of the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey, the cities were ranked using a house price to income ratio. … read more via hyperlink above …