Why ScoBot should NOT call an early election

I’ve wanted to write this one for a while. The Morrison Government is in danger of making a serious, possibly grave, error by calling an early election.

Why? Because Australians right now are in some kind of advanced state of exhaustion and paranoia. The last thing they want to face is another intensive news cycle in which they will have to grapple with their least favourite people: politicians.

I understand the conventional wisdom. Surveys of trust in government are up thanks to the handling of the pandemic. The economic rebound will be strong for twelve months too.

But this is quantitative analysis and qualitatively it is my view that circumstances are much murkier.

On the plus side for the government, there is a deeply conservative, change-averse culture abroad. On the downside for the government, there is simmering anger and COVID-19 trauma to put somewhere. Not to mention, plenty of axes to grind in lockdowns, a vaccine rollout, fiscal withdrawal and, still lurking in the background, climate change, bushfires and trips to Hawaii.

It is quite striking that despite the Government’s improving quantitative circumstances, the qualitative appears to have prevented any polling gains at all. Indeed, Essential is pointing at big opposition gains with Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8. Pollbludger’s poll of polls is closing as well despite what can only be described as near-invisible opposition:

Herein lies the danger for the ScoBot and it is of a very personal kind.

I can’t recall a Government so full of buffoons and boofheads. It lacks any kind of common or personal touch so utterly that it is always going to be a little vulnerable. This point is deeply underscored by the ScoBot himself, with whom there is clearly something very wrong personally. Whether he is a narcissist, psychopath or dissociative identity I will leave to the psychiatrists. The point is, he is clearly missing the empathy gene and it shows in a leadership style of dismissive one-liners, policy-free space and smug corruption. If he is exposed to people in the flesh then the wheels fly off in all directions. See today’s handling of the appalling parliament rape controversy (and I apologise for even easing it this context but this is who this bloke is):

Thus the obvious opportunism in calling an early election amid a distraught community dangerously highlights this personality flaw in the PM and could set him up as the immediate target for everybody’s COVID angst.

Especially so, since Labor is reading this better than ScoBot which is no surprise given his handicap. There is reassurance for the community in Albo’s journey to hollow centrism. He is more personable in his own squeaking, bumbling way. Most of his front bench is superior and more personable talent than Team ScoBot.

If ScoBot thrusts himself into stark relief with this amid an election that nobody wants, then he will not rub up well.

The ScoBot would be better off going the full term to allow time for things to settle. A vaccine rollout is no time for an election. Time is needed to allow states to come back together with no more border closures. Time is needed to continue the Government’s turn towards the political center-ground in lieu of personal empathy. Time is needed to let people forget the ScoBot’s Hawaiian disaster which is now exacerbated by today’s shocking robotic garbage. Time is also needed to let the community heal from COVID-19 wounds before they are subjected to another round of mechanical abuse by the ScoBot.

David Llewellyn-Smith

Comments

    • Jodi is just continuing the rich tradition of NSW Labor Opposition Leader as conduit of documents to the authorities on behalf of convicted criminals.
      Nothing supportive mind you, they just act as disinterested intermediaries who seemingly do no due diligence whatsoever.

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        Yet she has still done more due diligence than the media lapdogs who eat their own vomit in writing that hit-piece. It doesn’t even pretend to tell the facts; just a headline and a dream.

      • They dont need a hard line on china, they just need to not be Pro CCP. china will sort itself out as long as we dont engage in their games. Currently they are Pro CCP which will only allow them to bully us. We can sell our holes to someone else, only a fool thinks its a zero sum game where we need china or there is no market.

  1. PM is on wrong side of politics to show a personal side. His point of view just got ‘cancelled’. Pretty hard to find a leader with a affable personality who simultaneously excels at empathy, at policy while their rhetoric inspires.

  2. I want to hear from surveys with questions like ” If you voted for the LNP last election, had the allegations of sexual assault in government ministers offices been made public, would they have changed your vote”.
    And I want journalists to ask the LNP in the lead up to the election, ” have there been any more allegations of sexual assaults made against LNP members or staff today”.
    If that young woman had gone straight to the police instead of being pressured to keep quiet, we would not have a ScoMo government in my opinion.

  3. We need to talk the liberal party and why Totes is wrong on everything. In the US the guy that runs the executive doesn’t get to choose everything, like ministers, here he does. The Liberals are a disaster of small minded politics, vested interests and parliamentary dictatorship…

    • They are every stereotype of the small minded and self interested middle manager that has bumbles their way higher than their talents suggest they should be. All they can do is kick down and suck up. All while attempting to meet the meaningless KPIs that they have set themselves to show that they should be re-elected.

    • Just bad timing, I’m sure!

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-16/global-switch-deal-defence-data-security-files/13149592

      The Australian Defence Department has quietly extended a contract with a Chinese-owned company to continue storing data in its Sydney facilities, despite a push to end the arrangement by 2020.

      The ownership of Global Switch changed in December 2016 when the London-based parent company, Aldersgate Investments, accepted $4 billion in cash for a 49 per cent stake from Chinese consortium Elegant Jubilee.

      In 2017, then treasurer Scott Morrison confirmed strict new conditions had been placed on the Australian operations — and that Defence would begin to shift its data back to a government-owned hub once the contract expired.

  4. happy valleyMEMBER

    “I can’t recall a Government so full of buffoons and boofheads” … and morally bankrupt and rorting in to the bargain.

    There’s not one LNP minister that I can readily think of, deserving of serious respect, albeit Darren Chester seems to have decency and common sense.

  5. MountainGuinMEMBER

    If your saying avoid an early election, what happens with a later election? Unemployment won’t be hidden by jobkeeper, a few more lockdowns may have hit and really damaged many economically, the return of immigration post rollout of the vaccine in the absence of non-hotel quarantine may still result in a small percent of the population still getting hit hard, how will the next budget get us back to surplus and pay off all the debt we racked up?
    So there are a range of pros and cons with all the election dates.

  6. Personally I think going early would be better for Morrison.

    Yes, by November the Job keeper money and stimulus will be long gone and vaccine rollout will be almost complete. Voters will be doing it tough but still compliant, still putting up with lousy governance but prepared to put up with the pain because they know its because of the pandemic. Morrison will still have a little political currency with voters.

    But by February March? When all their Christmas credit cards come in? And their kid who finished year 12 cant get a job? Or when zombie businesses close in the quiet months of Jan and Feb? Then voters will be expecting the government to come up with ideas, to actually have policies.

    And as we know the LNP has tried nothing and is all out of ideas.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      And as we know the LNP has tried nothing and is all out of ideas.

      This is oh so true, but we have just been in some form of weird groundhog day since circa 2014 mainly because the ALP has been running nothingness all this time – and in the process giving the LNP governments a free pass…..

      My take on the question of whether the government goes to the polls early or not is this. I reckon they would love to right about now. But the further lockdown in Victoria, and increased risk of the same happening again from about here on in, means that they are taking a punt which could leave them wearing egg on their faces. And that suspicion is likely to continue all the way through until well after the next election.

      Today they (ScoMo’s government) have backed down on the BOOT test for IR laws. That to me suggests they understand that a load of punters out there are feeling soiewhat insecure and possibly dont want the government backing their employers by adding to their insecurity. In a month or so presumably we will get a load of businesses which dont function the way they previously did without the aid of JobKeeper. So thats one load of additional insecurity.

      From there we plausibly have a load of other employers (notably the University sector, tourism and those reliant on having foreign nationals with their previous access to getting to Australia) who will be paring back on their staffing. That goes alongside the restaurant sector and brick and mortar retail which is floating face down in the pool.

      Another angle on the instability drivers would have to include an export revenue reliance (for our federal budget) which reflects one country – which we currently have issues with, and which has embargoed a lot of our exports. All of that could potentially become real ‘live’ during an election campaign. Another potential source of instability would presumably include an awfully large number of buyers wading back into the home loan market with responsible lending tossed out the window by the government. Any sense of house prices going backwards (or maybe even topping out) may not actually deliver a backlash for the current government, but could lead to a sizeable electorate looking for something to vote for other than the crowd currently in.

  7. He wants Labor to think there will be an early election so they will announce their policies this year. Then the government will steal the ones that are popular and have plenty of time to craft aggressive scare campaigns on the rest, before an election next year.

    • That’s an interesting point but I still think Scummo will still want to go early on its own merits. He will want to go before the economic situation changes AND before he tries to open the international border.

      He knows the international border issue is toxic so will wait until after an election to do it.

      • He might also keep his options open until later this year and see how things are eg whether there have been major stuff-ups in the vaccine rollout. Bonus from his point of view is that it will cause angst in the opposition, not knowing when to ramp up.

  8. ashentegraMEMBER

    With QE to the moon and MMT by any other name, the L/NP backroom boys will be planning a big pre-election spend more audacious than MB readers can conceive or imagine. Tax cuts, infrastructure funding, extra defence projects – CV-19 has demonstrated there are no practical constraints on government spending. The RBA desires a bout of inflation above its target range. Morrison would be pleased to outspend Albo.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      The best ever financial managers led by white shoe brigade salesmen (SFM and Joshie) will give a whole new meaning to profligacy and defence projects are always orgasmic as far as rorts, cost overruns to the moon and non-delivery are concerned.

  9. I believe the earliest possible is 17th August ( half Senate )……..which would chime in well with the vaccine roll out and the housing market. The mooted changes to DHSS payments ( one payment ) are starting to sound like Universal Credit in the UK which is an unmitigated disaster and any election would have to be before that hit home.

  10. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    Imagine if Dan Andrews was running Australia during covid. Then add “when safe to do” Tanya, Burke, Marles, Wong, Chalmers.

    Labor’s not winning, probably ever again. Australia’s just simply not going to do it, certainly not until the above list retires.

    Let’s have another look at 2PP. What’s that say? Labor winning again?

    ….“Labor must recognise the anger in suburbs and regions over future employment, declining industries, rising inequality, dying towns and hollowed suburbs. These are only legitimate concerns and Labor must provide policy responses to them. He says Labor needs to better articulate the benefits of freer trade, immigration and global engagement” …..Bowen

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        I didn’t say Biden would lose. I said I didn’t know. But I knew Labor wouldn’t win, and I know they can’t win. Australia doesn’t trust them (yes even less than they trust LNP).

        Why would Australian regions and suburbs give Labor government under these settings….”benefits of freer trade, immigration and global engagement”?

        Given those policies, Australia will vote LNP every single time. Labor have rendered themselves nationally unelectable because Greens have dragged them too far left in the cities. You’ll see.

        It’s not going to happen. Especially if Plibersek leads, who is poison outside of Glebe..

        Anyway, I’m not sure why you have to abuse me. Are you getting meth withdrawls?

    • ….“Labor must recognise the anger in suburbs and regions over future employment, declining industries, rising inequality, dying towns and hollowed suburbs.”

      The LNP have been in power for 19 of the last 25 years. The LNP have had time to fix this but have done nothing. Name one policy that the LNP have to create jobs, stop the dying towns and the hollowed out economies.

      19 years and all they have done is help their rich mates.

      The LNP is responsible and the voters need to recognise it.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        ….“Labor must recognise the anger in suburbs and regions over future employment, declining industries, rising inequality, dying towns and hollowed suburbs.”

        You realise Bowen said that yeah?

        “The LNP have been in power for 19 of the last 25 years”

        Correct. That’s because Australia won’t vote for modern Labor. It took a monumental error by LNP, Howard with workchoices, and look how Labor rewarded Australia. It’s over man. Labor won’t win in the next twenty years, if at all.

        “Name one policy that the LNP have to create jobs, stop the dying towns and the hollowed out economies”

        NOTHING. They don’t have to, and still win. Labor’s the problem.

        “The LNP is responsible and the voters need to recognise it”

        Voters know, but they’re never going to vote Labor. Labor are far too woke for broad Australia to cope with. Every single sign is flashing, telling you that.

        Plibersek etal keep their warm inner woke city seats, but Labor won’t win because of it.

        Plebs are nationalists. Labor are globalists.

      • Mark HeydonMEMBER

        “Name one policy that the LNP have to create jobs”

        You seem to be forgetting the “jobs and growth” policy only a few years back.
        It consisted of saying “jobs and growth” at every opportunity. Nothing more.
        I don’t know how many jobs it created, but it did work out for the LNP as they won the election – the only job they care about.

  11. Scummo is up there as one of the 5 worst PMs in Australian history, and every negative thing said about him here rings true, BUT Albanese is the most unelectable life form in the history of this country. A wet dish cloth that had not been cleaned in 6 months would have a better chance at the polls.

    If Scummo waits, vile Tania will be installed and – much as I loathe her – have to concede that in an election this or next year, she will topple Scummo like Ali did Foreman in Zaire

    • Morrison is definitely the laziest PM in Australia history.

      And I agree with Mig – that’s twice today.

      Howard p!ssed a once in a century mining boom up the wall buying grey votes, created the First home buyers bribe and halved the capital gains tax, which turned houses into flipping money machines instead of homes. He also deregulated the banking industry and without any boundaries or constraints, they turned into unmitigated twats ie charging dead people. Howard also actively encouraged racism and xenophobia. Anyone else remember the Tampa?

      Tony Abbott also gets an honorary mention as a man so loathed, his own party tossed him out of the leadership in less than 2 years.

      • I despair of the current crop of politicians on both sides.

        The best possible leader to me, is the one least acceptable to voters – Penny Wong.
        She’s extremely intelligent, formidable in parliament, concise and articulate but Australians couldn’t cope with a red headed woman. They certainly aren’t ready for an angry Asian lesbian.

  12. Go early and Liberals lose. Tell me why we are thinking that is a bad idea? I have voted Liberal enough times in the past to now know better.
    But then we also want to make sure Labor don’t win because they are also hopelss.
    Where is Sustainable Australia Party or the Gunnamatta political party as a viable alternative when we need it?

    • Ultimately no party will make much difference. The entire world’s on the same downward trajectory – dying towns and countryside, rising inequality, the top 1% grabbing everything it can lay its grubby hands on, insane house prices, stock markets, debt levels and money printing. Add the decline of standards, honesty and calibre of politicians, then throw sweet FA being done about the climate and environment other than talk fests and promises – and what party gets in makes little difference anywhere.

      But great turn of phrase and concise summation of ScotBot’s dire lack of humanity and talent, DLS.

    • “Where is Sustainable Australia Party or the Gunnamatta political party as a viable alternative”
      Without enough funding or media coverage to ever be viable, since they don’t appeal to corporate donors.

  13. The question from the journalist from what I can decipher;
    ‘what happens if a man doesn’t have a wife and children? Why does it take having a wife and daughters for a man to understand the horror of this incident? What does that mean for men who aren’t father or a daughter?’
    If the question really is about Scobot, then why is the question framed in a way that brings ‘a man’ or ‘men’ in the indefinite article into it …

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