Roy Morgan: Labor takes poll lead from Coalition

Earlier this week, Newspoll released showed that Labor is trending higher in its primary vote:

Although, Labor and the Coalition were tied on a two-party preferred basis:

Now Roy Morgan has released polling, taken over the weekends of February 6/7 & 13/14, showing that Labor is now ahead 50.5% to 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis. This comes on the back of rising primary support for Labor and the Greens:

In February, support for the ALP is 50.5% on a two-party preferred basis, up 1% point since November 2020 and now ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (down 1% point) according to the latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.

If a Federal Election were held now it would be too close to call with a higher than usual 6.5% of electors undecided about who they would vote for and with the real possibility Australia would have a hung Parliament for the first time in nearly a decade. Normally around 3-4% of electors can’t say who they would vote for…

Primary support for the L-NP is now at 40% (down 2% points since November) compared to the ALP on 34.5% (up 0.5% points). Greens support has also increased and is now at 13% (up 1% point).

Support for One Nation is down 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others has increased 1% point to 9%.

The rise in Labor support is being driven by Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, whose state governments are riding a surge in popularity:

In Victoria the ALP now leads strongly on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, a swing of 1.9% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election…

In Queensland the LNP is still in front on a two-party preferred basis but its lead has been significantly reduced: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48%, a swing of 6.4% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election…

In WA there has been a big swing with the ALP now marginally in front on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% – a swing of 6.1% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election…

This poll was taken prior to the Brittany Higgins rape affair. So there is a good likelihood that the Coalition’s support will go south from here.

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