Macro Afternoon

By in Australian Dollar, Australian Shares

| 252 comments

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Will Bitcoin destroy the US dollar?

Asian stocks have fallen sharply across the region, in a correlated response to the big reversal on Wall Street overnight as the bond market flipped out. Bitcoin is falling after being range traded the last couple of days, now breaking towards the $47K level with the four hourly chart showing the next support level at the $45K extreme low not that far away:

The Shanghai Composite is down nearly 2% going into the close, currently at 3519 points while the Hang Seng Index is losing ground fast, now off by 2.4% to 29342 points. Japanese markets have been the worst hit by the bond rout, with the Nikkei 225 wiping out nearly 3% as it looks to close around 29302 points while the USDJPY pair is holding on after some intrasession volatility at the 106 handle:

The ASX200 was the best market in the region, relatively speaking, only down 2% proper to be at 6695 points going into the close while the Australian dollar keeps falling after its 100+ pip reversal overnight, now back below the 79 cents level against USD having wiped out all its gains for the week:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are tracking somewhat lower before the European opening session with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a return to the previous extreme lows earlier in the week is probable later tonight:

The economic calendar finishes the week with US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and the closely watched Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Have a good weekend and stay safe!

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Yep, ABV is getting a thorough look-see prior to purchase here too. As of last week. It’s similar to but not identical to a bell curve when you plot for age vs demand for high then low ABV. Ignoring the 5 years where the inexperienced drinker doesn’t know or care what ABV is. Or why premixed is so [email protected] value for money.

            But that curve deserves it’s own name.
            The Frosty-Flop-Curve has a ringtab to it.

        • haroldusMEMBER

          I bought a couple of those Advocate from BWS, have instructed the buttler to air it. Used the rewards card to get the half price.

          Also bought half price Marlborough cat’s p!ss and 2 for 36 Hardy Insignia Limestone Coast Cardonnay,

          Limestone Coast tasting notes: Hue medium yellow, light citrus with very slight floral notes on the nose, minimal wood. Crisp on the palate, not heavy, good length in the middle of the tongue. 2020 so no aged character. Well made cool climate light chardonnay. Prob worth the $18 if yo can get it for that. (Reading the label they reckon stone fruit but I don’t get any of that, probably more tart melon. They reckon oak as well but my nose must be going……. hang on there’s a tiny bit of wet pencil breathing the length). Would go well with creamy/spicy stuff due to the acid and a bit of residual fruit.

          Will do the Cab in about 750 mls.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Tasting notes: it’s at least as good as the 2017 St Hugo Shiraz I’m currently on.

            Why am I on that? Because when I went round the corner to get moar 2018 Advocate, there was only one bottle left in the store – the rest were all 2019s. Fkcn.

            Thank goodness I already made three trips on Wednesday to a couple of places and ended up with 12+ bottles, eh?

        • haroldusMEMBER

          Tasting Notes Advocate: Hue medium purple with some brick in the meniscus. Nice nose, a bit woody, not too explosive, bit spicy. Tasting; good length across the tongue, slight metallic taste mostly dissipates on breathing, good tannin grip and a gentle application of wood, not heavy. I got some geranium in the nose and palate, and the fruit is dark and ripe like savoury plums. Slightly bitter length which is not bad.

          Verdict: A pretty good wine at 20 bucks, not so good at 40. Is more refined than the Taylor’s Cab Sauv I normally drink, but this is missing a tiny bit in power. It definitely is not a big fruit driven strayan cab sauv. Structure is sound, no faults, good companion for food but not necessarily for quaffing.

          More tomorrow when I crack the second bottle.

          PS: Taylor’s CS was 22 bucks tonight!

          Edit: Maybe even violets at the top of teh nose?

      • rob barrattMEMBER

        If you want a real humdinger, try drinking Duvel. I lived in Brussels & Holland for a while. Duvel had a real rep. Tastes great, you nod offf happily. You wake up wondering whether you’d got involved in a head butting contest with a Macadamia nut…

        • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

          Brings back mammories of Old Speckled Hen 🤮 that English beer was pure evil the next morning

          • HixtarMEMBER

            When I met my wife’s family in Wolverhampton, they had a keg of Old Speckled Hen. Made a great first impression by taking an early morning piss in the wardrobe thinking it was the loo.😂 The hangover the next day was next level.

        • DrBob127MEMBER

          Plus 1 on your sentiment towards Duvel.

          Whilst living near Goes, we had a weekend trip to Antwerp, where I have never (ever) been as hungover as the day after the night I discovered that beer.

    • Swampy

      Promotion for swampy 10-20% payrise so it’s some pirramirra Malibu finnlaighs and other assorted delughtd

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      The Goat Steam Ale $58. Perfect for tonight and some left over for tomorrow!
      Not Dans, 1st Choice

      • ram

        Totally 1st choice.

        You realise Dan’s is Woolworths/ endeavour/ pokie Kent’s.
        Dilapidated heritage pubs held together with cigarette tar and spilt beer.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          You just described what most punters here still do or miss drinking in. Don’t like getting the hem on your princess skirt wet mate?

          • ram

            You guys and gals on here praise Dan’s like it’s some church and not some corporate behemoth. . I was just pointing out it’s Woolworths and the care for the everyday punter is approx .. zero, otherwise they would appropriately remunerate their staff and maintenance on their facilities.

            I love grungy pubs. That was not .y pont

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            I can’t speak for anyone else, though apparently that’s not going to stop you from doing so, but I’ve never once talked about how great the place is or about personally shopping there on here. As I don’t. Shop there. Ever.

            Once I mentioned I wished my BWSs had a particular Dan’s buy that was being discussed. As it was old and cheap.

            Brush. Tar. Feather someone else.

    • Hot Dog

      I go in there trying to up my game and always walk out with mainly low rent stuff. Anyway, Friday night getting plastered at home whilst going full time on MB / Reddit / WhingePool / Twitter / SF and streaming YouTube all at once whilst cooking steak and watching SBS Food in the background is one of life’s few joys …. All post 60 mins interval sprints at Marks Park, of course.

  4. Stephen Morris

    The debate over the EU is indeed live in France, with one recent poll showing 58% of the French having lost confidence in the union.
    The issue can cause tension on the personal level, too. [France’s Junior Minister for EU affairs, Clement] Beaune’s left-wing father, an eminent scientist, is no longer happy with the EU because it’s too “neoliberal” and not good enough at protecting social safety nets. Beaune dismisses the criticism, pointing to unprecedented public spending during the pandemic. It’s a topic he mostly avoids at dinners.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-26/france-aims-to-exploit-brexit-to-grab-more-british-finance-jobs?srnd=markets-vp

    The “European Project” can be all things to all people.

    The actual EU – like any real state – cannot.

  5. ColinMEMBER

    Brains Trust Question.
    What’s currently the best Battery Pushbike? Fattest tyres & Suspension a must. Acceptable Speed/Range also…

    A non licensed transport replacement…
    TIA.

      • ColinMEMBER

        I’m guessing they’re worth high 2’s, but that’s not a ceiling. Fat tyres & suspension because it’ll be part bush tracks part road to get around here.
        Just to note, the TIA was me last week (out of nowhere!) & my sight is majorly diminished at the moment…. prepping for the dim side in case it doesn’t come back & I’m delicenced…. (Outcome currently unknown)……. 2 weeks after buying my MT09!

        • footsore

          $3,000 is where the name brands start with their entry models. That’s before suspension. If you are in Melbourne there’s a ebike brand called Vyron that also add motors. That might be a way to go if you have a bike you like, or want to get a good second hand bike and motor it up.

          https://vyronelectricbikes.com.au/

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      How much you willing to spend is the answer. Kalkhoff get a good wrap from a couple of people I know. The BMC AMP series are the ones I like, mostly because the battery position gives them a better balance, plus they’re the lightest. Pretty rare though…and costly. Lekker bikes go okay.

      This is the one I’d get…

      https://www.bmc-switzerland.com/intl_en/alpenchallenge-amp-al-city-four.html

      …but I have a soft spot for the brand. Kalkhoff is better value.

      I haven’t really looked at cheaper brands.

    • Freddy

      Familiarise yourself with state laws. NSW for instance has a 25km/h limit before the electric motor must cut out. Unless you are riding up lots of hills you may not get what you are expecting. Above 25km/h you will just be using more of your own energy to push the extra weight and fatter tyres.

      • DingwallMEMBER

        This. Wonder what it is in QLD? I noticed one on Oxley Rd a while back and was blown away how fast he was going.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Yeah, some of them you can fiddle with settings and you’re crusing at 40k plus. Lady at work is buying a Kalkhoff and was talking about us riding in together. I told her she’d kill me on the hills but I’ll catch and pass on the flat. She says why, I’ve been doing 40k on test rides…

        • ram

          I nearly cleaned up some fuktrd at manly Qld (near marina) who overtook me in a fifty zone on the gutter side. Ridden by some prick not wearing a helmet. I’d say within a year that guys going to hospitalised or dead.

      • ColinMEMBER

        Thanks Freddy. 25kph sounds dull, but might be enough for half my journey – the rest will be boring. There’s long steep hills on tracks here so the power will be pretty handy.

        • footsore

          You can get larger motors which you can place limits on. Or you can get smaller motors which can then be hacked. I was looking into an ebike to use the car less and went with an escooter instead. It cuts it if you just want to zip about and are happy to be limited to a back pack. Not so good for off road.

    • Popcod

      I’m quite happy I bought a house and was therefore forced to sell a lot of my stocks in Jan which meant I locked in profits (and also had a great incentive to clear out under-performers and some [email protected]). The process of selling showed me that I was a little more emotionally attached to some of my stocks than I thought I was so it was a good educational experience. If we get a decent correction there are a few I would like to re-buy at a much lower price to what they are currently, but I want to be a Marin Katusa ‘aligator’ in how I go about it so I’m forcing myself to be patient.

        • Popcod

          Marin Katusa in a Canadian resource investor who has a very good free e book about how to do resource investing correctly (or at least how to avoid all the basic mistakes) and part of it is that patience gets you what you want cos most resource stocks go on ‘sale’ for various reasons and it is best to wait patiently for that opportunity as your chances of making a killing increase substantially.

        • Popcod

          Thanks! My parents are super relieved for many reasons (invisible disabilty daughter is almost financially secure now). Plus living with someone with CFS is not easy so they get a lot more freedom back about how to live in their own home as well.

        • Popcod

          Thank you! But also there was a huge element of luck involved, but I wouldn’t have known to take advantage of the luck (of seeing the listing when it was so young) if I hadn’t done my research

        • Popcod

          Thanks mate, I’ve got a really good feeling about it. In all respects I’m getting much more value for money than I thought possible and it is even more financially conservative than I thought possible so I feel ultra comfortable about everything to such an extent that I did not think possible.

      • triageMEMBER

        Congrats Poppy, hope you had it all feng shuied and it brings you great happiness and wealth (but yet another property bought with money from China!).

        • Popcod

          Thanks but actually I would not classify it as bought worth money from China. Yeah I came back with some savings from there but honestly I was unable to save a lot and most foreigners, especially westerners, would have considered my time there a financial failure (I was there for 17 years so you’d hope I’d have some savings but it wasn’t a lot because I had to spend so much money on trying to get healthy there and due to my health issues the type of work i could do was restricted and as I was paid as an English teacher though that wasn’t strictly what I did; in the last decade I was definitely a low income foreign earner there, and every year inflation stole quality of life and the ability to save from me -if there is anything I’m afraid of its inflation!). My China savings were basically invested or used for health. A fair amount of those investments were a disaster for years (except the physical gold I bought which was painful for 7 years then came good). I worked since I returned and saved everything i could, and invested as much as i could of those Aussie savings and that turned out to be successful, eventually. So I’d say that my China savings are about a third of my contribution to the purchase.

          • drt15MEMBER

            Congrats Poppy, so happy for you. Nothing like coming in, closing the door – your home, your castle. Enjoy!))

  10. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand housing crisis: Is the Reserve Bank telling the Government to focus on the real problems … land supply and infrastructure debt financing ? …

    … Why is the Government failing with ill – considered and confused /confusing Reserve Bank intervention, in essence, making monetary policy impotent ? …

    NZ dollar falls as Adrian Orr says the Monetary Policy Committee is ‘only focussed’ on its inflation and employment targets … Jenee Tibshraeny … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/109266/nz-dollar-falls-adrian-orr-says-monetary-policy-committee-only-focussed-its-inflation

    Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr has used his first opportunity to publicly comment on the central bank’s remit tweak to stress this won’t change the way it sets monetary policy.

    Speaking to the Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce on Friday, Orr said: “Our Monetary Policy Committee remit targets remain unchanged.

    “We remain only focussed on maintaining low and stable consumer price inflation and contributing to maximum sustainable employment, as recently outlined in our Monetary Policy Statement.” … read more via htperlink above …
    .
    .
    … Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr made the blindingly obvious ‘supply solution’ crystal clear back mid – November 2020, with Television New Zealand’s John Campbell …

    Record house prices not caused by Reserve Bank – Adrian Orr …VIDEO TVNZ

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/record-house-prices-not-caused-reserve-bank-adrian-orr
    .
    .
    … When will the NZ Governments Ardern, Robertson and Woods be asked why 25 year old Dallas based school teacher Lani Huang on $US 58,400 a year annual income, bought her first home a year ago for $US 155,000 … 2.66 times her SINGLE EAERNER income ? (further extensive background information http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org front page 2020 Section … scroll down to FURTHER UPDATE) …

    How a 25-year-old teacher making $58,000 in Dallas spends her money … VIDEO . CNBC

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/12/17/58k-a-year-dallas-millennial-money-lani-huang.html

    • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

      UPDATE …

      Auckland fourth least affordable city for housing among world cities – 2021 Demographia report … Stuff New Zealand

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/124367729/auckland-fourth-least-affordable-city-for-housing-among-world-cities–2021-demographia-report

      … extracts …

      … The 2021 annual Demographia international housing affordability report, which is a scaled down version of previous years’ reports, looks at housing affordability in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Ireland, New Zealand, Singapore, UK and the US. …

      … Housing affordability researcher Hugh Pavletich, who has co-authored all the previous Demographia reports, said the results mean that the smallest country in the English speaking world now had the least affordable housing – and that was a national disgrace.

      “It has just got worse and worse over the 17 years the report has been conducted and yet successive governments seem to have been incapable of acting to get prices back to a more normal price-to-income ratio.”

      Housing affordability is one of the major concerns for Kiwis and, with house prices continuing to escalate rapidly, too many people were suffering because of the situation, he said.

      “We need to do something about it. If we don’t, we will see a haemorrhaging of young people, and skills, to Australia where there are regional cities with relatively affordable house prices.”

      However, Pavletich does see hope in the growing global trend towards remote working, which he said will have a big impact on the housing market.

      “The growth in consents issuance, the National Policy Statement on urban development, which requires councils to do a stocktake on available land from July, and new infrastructure funding legislation are also positive developments.”

      But they will need to be picked up and acted on to work, he said. “In the meantime, we need to keep asking why we can’t provide affordable housing for our young people – and get the data out there to show how dire the situation is.” … read more via hyperlink above …
      .
      .
      Housing crisis: Auckland housing affordability among fastest-deteriorating in the world – report VIDEO … Dan Satherley … Newshub

      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/02/housing-crisis-auckland-housing-affordability-among-fastest-deteriorating-in-the-world-report.html

      • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

        FURTHERR UPDATE …

        Be Kind, Don’t Invest In Houses … ACT New Zealand … Scoop News

        https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2102/S00167/be-kind-dont-invest-in-houses.htm

        … extracts …

        “After the median house price rose $200,000 and with no reason to believe the rise will stop, the Government has resorted to asking people not to invest in housing,” says ACT Housing Spokesperson Brooke van Velden. …

        … “This Government was elected to make housing affordable, but after 3 ½ years the median house price has risen 38 percent from $530,000 to $730,000. The Prime Minister has to beg people not to invest because the Government has no other plan. …

        … “The Prime Minister’s statement comes at the end of a week where three separate reports from Demographia, Core Logic, and the New Zealand Initiative showed New Zealand housing is unaffordable by international standards, rising rapidly, and caused by a lack of supply, respectively. …

        … “ACT has long said that Government policy needs to free up land, fund infrastructure more effectively, and get councils out of building quality assurance. Current policy settings have failed at all three of these. ACT’s plan to allow the next generation to Build like the Boomers could fix all three.

        … The Government must fix the supply side first.”
        .
        .
        Brooke van Velden … ACT Deputy Leader & Housing Spokesperson … New Zealand Parliament

        https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/members-of-parliament/van-velden-brooke/

        Brooke van Velden … Wikipedia

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooke_van_Velden

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Sorry, I don’t hold a truncheon, mate.

      But I’m sure he asked lots of questions.
      Because he wanted to know.

      Is Morrison the dumbest PM Australia’s ever had, or just the most cringeworthy?

      • Swampy

        It’s still important to know if there’s a rapist in cabinet

        How often do women make this kind of thing up and then kill themselves. I’m guessing not often. I am going to choose not to dismiss this allegation out of hand just because of how long ago it was and the fact the alleged victim is sadly dead

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Here’s the ministry.

      https://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/parliamentary_handbook/current_ministry_list

      Below are male NSW ministers. Not sure if outer ministry is cabinet.

      Ministry
      Prime Minister
      Minister for the Public Service
      The Hon Scott Morrison MP

      Deputy Prime Minister
      Minister for Infrastructure and Transport and Regional Development
      The Hon Michael McCormack MP

      Minister for Communications, Urban Infrastructure, Cities and the Arts
      The Hon Paul Fletcher MP

      Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction
      The Hon Angus Taylor MP

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          PM material they say, but they have said that about Porter as well and looking at the federal LP pollies they’d all probably have that ticket on themselves (think Tim Wilson etc etc etc)? Ego is a core promise.

      • footsore

        Some time online has uncovered that this was another widely known secret and that the two states mentioned, NSW and SA are misleading. Ronni Salt has cleared A.T.
        https://twitter.com/RonniSalt/status/1365432367179984896

        Back to it being a widely known secret, it was the threat of this being revealed that seems to driven the reaction to last year’s four corners episode about he predatory nature of some of the LNP. It’s also why many thought that a career would end that night, and perhaps a gov. would fall. What it did do was set off a panic which led to Scotty from Marketing to over market, leading to Brittany Higgins go public. Which has lead to the past fortnight.

        Thinking about this last night, in relation to broader Australia, I hope it leads to change but I don’t think it will be a reckoning. I’ve had a few friends confide the s3xual assaults that happened them to me. While some were work and school place, someone in the family is generally the person responsible. I just can’t see the nation going there at this stage.

    • Quarantine Madness

      If it’s who I’m thinking of, I heard years ago when he wasn’t even on the federal scene his modus operandi used to be hang outside of the female toilets in nightclubs going after drunk girls to take advantage of them.

  12. dodgy as

    Today I got into a bit of an argument about the local economic importance of Sydney’s selective schools system.
    Obviously the schools themselves are a sort of meritocratic system for delivering the best academic education available in the state. A private school without the fees, sort of thing.
    But the guy I was discussing this made a rather strong claim, basically he claimed that the majority of high tech Sydney startups are formed and staffed by ex Selective school kids.
    Clearly Scott Farquhar is well known for being a James Ruse graduate and I guess Atlassian is systemically the most important Aussie “startup” in recent history but does the claim stand up to broader examination?
    I’ve heard that most Newcastle startups are a bit like a Merewether class reunion, and I’ve also heard similar things said about Aussie Fintech startups being populated disproportionally by Select Schools graduates.

    So what do you guys think, are our Selective schools punching way above their weight in the High tech startup game?

    • Stephen Morris

      It could be selection bias.

      The sort of people motivated to get themselves into a selective school (or from families motivated to get them into a selective school) could plausibly also be those more likely to start up a businesses.

      • Cynical snake

        I was thinking selecting for intelligence vs selecting for parents income as the private system does, and the rest of the public system getting the leftovers

        • Stephen Morris

          From my observation of schooling systems, nowadays they select not so much for intelligence as for determination, time-management skills, and an ability to recognise and satsify the criteria for reward.

          Intelligence is important but not all-important. There are a lot of intelligent kids who can’t focus, at least at that age.

          Which raises another issue: rate of maturity. Some kids just grow up more slowly than others. Perhaps those who grow up fast are more likely to have started businesses by the time the reunions come around. Another form of selection bias.

          • skippy

            A lot of smart [tm] people never start a business …. something about a 95% fail rate in the first five years …

            Btw schools are now focused on delivering widgets and cogs for the market and not an education, hence the term your struggling for is malleability.

          • dodgy as

            Good point about the Selective school system checking for maturity rather than intelligence.
            Honestly how many 11 year old boys have the patience to even sit through the Selective Schools test.
            There’s also the Asiafication side of the problem with schools like James Ruse and North Sydney boys being 90%+ Asian, meaning that a lot of European stock are avoiding these schools so that their kids get a proper Australian education.

      • dodgy as

        Yeah I was thinking the same thing
        Private school kid inherits money and position whereas the Selective school kid has to earn his way in the world and find a path forward that is not adversely impacted by their parents lack of financial or political pull.
        Startups are the ultimate meritocratic system, solve the problem and you get rich, don’t solve that problem…next problem, rinse and repeat until failure eventually leaves its indelible stain on your soul..

        • Cynical snake

          ” rinse and repeat until failure eventually leaves its indelible stain on your soul.”
          That is so poetic, and sad…

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          These days, a lot of selective school pupils come from reasonably-well-heeled families but get in to the state-run selective schools based on the academic exam and get the best education on the taxpayer tab (think the number of state-run selective schools in the top 10 in HSC rankings each year in NSW, at least). Why pay extra for the best when you can it for virtually zip?

          • dodgy as

            I’m not overly concerned about the wealth of their families, the claim that a relatively small group, about 2000 kids per year, makes up the majority of the employees at Sydney Startups is intriguing.
            It’s maybe a little more understandable if their parents are rich but it’s an even more fascinating claim if their parents are poor or of moderate means.
            As part of the Australian society we need to understand what works in so far as education is concerned. If our Selective schools honestly deliver this sort of advantage then it needs to be recognized and further studied.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Private schools get moar tax payer funds per unit (child) than state ones. Logic as to who wants to ‘go’ where is irrelevant next to that.

          • dodgy as

            These days, a lot of selective school pupils come from reasonably-well-heeled families
            This might be true but you need to be very careful to understand exactly what is being measured because a lot of deliberately confusing terms are used in the available data.
            One that trips up a lot of people is the difference between Socio economic advantage and Socio Educational Advantage.
            What’s measured is the later what’s often implied (and communicated by the press) is the former, but the two measurements are not the same. I wonder who invented this silly misinformation game? It couldn’t possibly be the well heeled, after all why would they care if some poor kid gets a good education?

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Off memory, Mike Cannon-Brookes went to posh Sydney eastern suburbs school Cranbrook and his father was a well-heeled banker. Farquhar and Mike met at the Uni of NSW when doing their (computer science?) degrees and supposedly agreed that they did not want to work in a traditional, structured company and so Atlassian was born, apparently with $5,000. They’ve had a decent ROI.

      • dodgy as

        True about MCB but is it relevant.
        Private school kids have always enjoyed advantage and been able to take on the risks associated with startups.
        The Selective schools kids are different, their parents are often highly educated first generation immigrants, little money but a very good idea of where the world is heading and what makes it turn.
        I suspect the two groups define risk indifferent ways, with the selective schools group being far more focused on Opportunity costs. What’s money when you don’t have it?
        It’s the classic Middle income trap, I can’t risk achieving great success because I’ve become a prisoner of moderate success and or moderate wealth/power.

      • dodgy as

        I understand what you are saying but there are plenty of smart kids that do not go to Selective schools. So it would be pretty easy (if one had the data) to see how much it was being surrounded by like minded people and the incubator effect that is influencing employment decisions, especially wrt taking the risky choice to join a startup.
        Truth is I don’t know and I don’t think anyone else does either.
        Anecdata suggest that this is a very significant effect, so you can probably data mine something like Linkedin to get an idea just how prevalent this really is, apart from that I don’t really know where to start with proving or disproving this claim.
        I definitely know guys form Selective schools that work at high tech startups, but one or two data points does not a trend make.
        If you guys can also name several each then maybe someone within the NSW department of education can somehow fact check this.

    • Sacha

      I always found Russel to be a bit of a weirdo, but that’s just personal.
      I’ll raise you a PJ Watson. My favourite social commentator laying out some facts regarding your beloved humanitarian, climate change warrior and benefactor slash ‘philanthropist’ Bill Gates.
      ‘Bill Gates owns 4 private jets, a collection of Porsches & a 66,000 sq. ft. mansion.
      But Bill says YOU need to make sacrifices!’
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARDXlyq3EgI

        • Sacha

          Awww… A fanboi.
          How cute!
          His philanthropy foundation is a tax dodge.
          He is not giving away anything that doesn’t benefit himself in the end.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        It is certainly reassuring to know that because Bill Gates is a rich dude, climate change isn’t real.

        Obviously he needs to stop giving money away immediately to protect the environment !

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            My bad.

            It is comforting to know climate change isn’t real because Bill Gates is a hypocritical, rich dude.

        • The Claw

          Don’t think in terms of money, think in terms of control of resources.
          I assume that you think the current control of resources has a bad result. Do you think Bill Gates controlling more resources would give a better result? How so?

      • Sacha

        I like PJ Watson because he only needs 5 minutes to destroy the woke mob, every single time.
        And he does it with humour, something the outrage mob seriously lack because they take themselves much too seriously.
        If you want a more in depth doco please watch:
        ‘Who Is Bill Gates’ (with full transcript and links to material used)
        https://www.corbettreport.com/gates/
        James Corbett has a lot of amazing, eye opening and well documented content on his site.

      • Freddy

        I am not a fan of anyone who makes a living out of ideological divisiveness. That means both sides of politics. “we are all gunna die tomorrow from climate change” vs “climate change is a scam”. No original thoughts being spoken.

        I agree with your general comments about billionaire philanthropists. Enough money to live a million lifetimes and they throw a bit of spare change around to draw attention to themselves as a hero. Someone on here came up with the correct term for these people:
        https://www.psychologytoday.com/au/blog/finding-new-home/201812/the-communal-narcissist-new-kind-narcissist

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          I am not a fan of anyone who makes a living out of ideological divisiveness. That means both sides of politics. “we are all gunna die tomorrow from climate change” vs “climate change is a scam”. No original thoughts being spoken.

          The obvious question seems to be, is anyone actually saying “we are all gunna die tomorrow from climate change” ?

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            So when “one side” says “climate change is a scam”, what do you think they mean figuratively?

            Because they way they act sure suggests they mean it literally.

            Or can we just agree you’re peddling a false equivalence ?

        • Jumping jack flash

          After adjusting my tinfoil hat i see climate change as a useful tool to convert developed economies into basically large banks that operate solely on debt and debt growth. Manufacturing is no good for anyone, least of all the planet.

          Then it really got me thinking when China was given an extra ten years to achieve their targets. Someone has to keep making stuff otherwise nothing would get made.

          Consider when the date for the target is so far in the future that those setting the date will probably be too old to care whether it is achieved or not.

          But climate change surely is real. Of course everything is getting warmer. Who is mostly responsible for that can be argued forever but it is a useful distraction and immaterial in the grand scheme of things.

          It is what happens because of it that is important.

          Take COVID for example. At the end of the day it isn’t the pandemic that is important, it is what happened as a result of it which is a few trillion dollars worth of stimulus to fix the global economy that was broken long before the pandemic happened.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      Much like the Catholic Church. The cognitive dissonance and power tripping required in happy clappy land surely engender some rapey tendencies.

  16. haroldusMEMBER

    Poms doing about as well as straya would against india at home. And they dominated the first test!

  17. skippy

    Good one I saw in the wild too day …. If your government is not regulating corporations … corporations are regulating your government …

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      I knew someone in the 1980s who worked in the Hardly Normal HO in Sydney and they told me that he used to tell staff to take the slide-on clips off documents (eg invoice batches) on incoming mail and reuse them. Waste not, want not. I am sure that Gerry has never looked a gift horse in the mouth and JK was certainly a gift horse for many businesses (particularly retailers?).

  20. SweeperMEMBER

    People are off their heads with this inflation meme.
    It took decades of genuine full employment + centralised wage bargaining / strong unions + entrenched & cumulative inflation expectations + baby boom + CB’s targeting real variables + 2 x oil shocks to generate any inflation.
    And people reckon we are going to get inflation now after a 12 year slump, liquidity trap, core PCE which has been above 2.5% maybe once in the past 30 years, synthetic gold standard etc.
    Good luck with that one. If yields go higher I’m buying bonds.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yep. ABC covers it on the finance slot as if it was just another throw away item of economic voodoo that didn’t really matter. Then Aus 10 year yield went back up to high 1.8s. That was the third time I shed a tear in about 40 minutes.

      All fixed now though. Many future Lowes ahead for yields.

      I might send him some chocolates (expired). Maybe.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        probably a ceiling. avg. term issuance is about 8 years, and gross debt is pretty low.
        This alleged bond rout is hilarious. It’s like bitcoin idiocy has effected real markets.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          That’s pretty much what I said to myself 36 hours ago. About 12 hours ago I had a look at the monthly view of the Aus 10 year yield chart. It’s bafflingly stupid and irrational. And quite scary, for the moment at least.

          But… you know… markets irrational you longer etc. 😨😨😨

  24. Hot Dog

    Also – am I the only one of a certain age (low 50s) who finds themselves foraging the internet looking for copies of treasured books from childhood? Gees nostalgia comes with a heavy price.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      It’s a head fake.
      The RBA can easily pin the 3Y down.

      “Meanwhile, with virtually all RBA ammo used, the Australian dollar is on the cusp of breaking above US80¢, despite renewed ultra-easy monetary policy commitments by all central banks. This is becoming a major headache for export-heavy Australia”

      They’ve hardly used any ammo in relative terms. Lowe is still a hawk, that’s why yields are getting away.

      • GavinMEMBER

        I agree. Australia has done well managing Covid-19 so Phil hasn’t had to do much more than jawbone.

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          But he has done heaps (following on from his predecessor Stevens) in annihilating (90% “pay cut” in the past 10 years, from 5% pa to now 0.5% pa) the interest income of fixed interest income reliant retirees and then has the gall to play the holier than thou a couple of weeks ago in agreeing with an increase in JobSeeker from its atrocious poverty level. It didn’t dawn on the bloke as to the contradiction underlying his recent statement?

          To get the equivalent income to what a couple on the full aged pension receives (~$37,000 pa), a self-funded retiree couple reliant on interest income would have to have $7.4m in banks, at the current interest rate of 0.5% pa.