Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Another mixed start to the trading week with Asian stock markets going all over the place in response to a mixed lead from Wall Street on Friday night, as the ructions from bond and currency markets outweigh stocks. Bitcoin gapped even higher on resumption of trade this morning – almost $57K – but has pulled back ever so slightly as the bubble continues to expand ever upward, having gained nearly 50% since the start of the month:

The Shanghai Composite is down over 1% going into the close, currently at 3657 points while the Hang Seng Index is holding on, taking only 0.3% off the board to be at 30551 points. Meanwhile Japanese markets are rebounding, with the Nikkei 225 finishing 0.6% higher at 30209 points as the USDJPY pair steadied and then bounced up past the mid 105 level after falling on Friday night:

The ASX200 continues to lose ground, falling almost 0.2% to 6780 points while the Australian dollar is still highly elevated following its Friday night surge, currently hovering just below the 79 handle as the commodity boom keeps a-booming:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are broadly tracking lower this afternoon before the European opening session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a break of the previous week’s low that could spell some decent trouble ahead – we’re way overdue for a correction!

The economic calendar includes the closely watched IFO business survey in German, plus a speech from the ECB President Lagarde.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    That shark next to me out the back in the surf this morn most probably was a Dusky Whaler.
    On another note while working today I heard on the MSM that one in five city people want to go regional.

    • Waves were pumping today. After the flooding rains we’ve been getting the rivermouth I surfed was anxiety inducing – all kinds of dead things and debris floating through the brown water lineup. Shudder to think what was swimming around underneath besides some massive jewfish.. A few freight train barrels helps ease the mind !

      How close did you get to the Noah ?

  2. Bond Yields Trends and China’s significance …

    What happened Monday … David Chaston … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/109164/review-things-you-need-know-you-go-home-monday-strong-farm-sales-searing-mortgage-market

    … extract …

    … SWAP & BONDS RATES TAKE OFF AT LONG END

    We don’t have today’s closing swap rates yet. If there are movements today, we will note them here later when we get the data. It is likely they will be rising, especially at the long end. Today the 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 0.27%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is 6 bps higher at 1.56%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 3.30%. But the New Zealand Govt ten year is up 13 bps today to 1.65%. That is well above where the earlier RBNZ fix was, at 1.59% ( 8 bps). The US Govt ten year is up 4 bps from this morning, pushing on up to 1.38%.
    .
    .
    China’s Yield Appeal Catapults Yuan to Global FX Big League … Susanne Barton and Robert Fullem … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-21/china-s-yield-appeal-catapults-yuan-to-the-global-fx-big-league?srnd=premium-asia

    The Chinese renminbi’s accelerating transformation from a sleepy backwater of the foreign-exchange market into a currency fit to rival global peers has traders setting aside concerns about how much further it can go without reform and buying into its ascent. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    Chinese yuan rising (again)! … David Llewellyn-Smith … MacroBusiness Australia

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/02/chinese-yuan-rising-again/

    For those who are sceptical that China is on the verge of delivering a threat to the USD with the world’s new reserve currency, today marks another cynical day. There is new excitement at Bloomberg for CNY as its daily turnover rises: … read more via hyperlink above …

  3. According to Norman Swan we won’t be able to open our borders until we have herd immunity via Pfizer or similar, not AstraZeneca as it doesn’t work against SA strain. We haven’t ordered enough of those and probably wouldn’t get enough for another 2 years so if that’s all true there will be no migration for another 2 years minimum. Will be on 7:30 tonight.

    • Tania doesn’t “respect” Scomo.

      Tania married a convicted heroin importer.

      Tania might not have the best “character radar”.

      She should be careful lest more folk bring this up … it is potentially unfair on her partner as it is years ago … but if you want to throw mud ….

      • Convicted for (conspiracy to) importing heroin. He was an addict, dealt with it and deserves high praise for doing so. Nothing to do with Tanya.

        • How did he get a job in the public service with a criminal record?

          Very very bizarre.

          Anyway, I’d prefer to leave him out of it. He’s not a fair target.

          Tanya’s got way more than enough to keep her from the Labor leaders job. She’s an elite, hypocrite, absolute man hating shocker.

          No Australian man’s going to vote Labor if she’s the leader.

          • Scrote won’t be there. Regardless, vote independent and wipe them both out.

            Plibersek won’t be leader either. Even Labor isn’t that dumb.

          • I’ll that bet – scrote will be there

            I doubt my seat (Page / nats) will have an indie

            Wasted vote voting for indie here

  4. Sovereign debt is no longer sovereign……..in a world where systemic risk is managed by repo markets it is collateral co-opted by the financial oligarchs who are in charge of our politicians. Issuing it the way that is happening now is just enabling more abuse of the populace. Central banks have been scammed by their dependants and are no longer in charge.

    https://twitter.com/DanielaGabor/status/1355161368064905219

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      All self righteous wankers have a plan untill they get punched in the mouth…. 😁 which is what a hell of a lot of wankers need

    • That nonsensical pledge nonsense makes me sick. These “warriors” won’t even be able to hurt the feelings of their enemies, let alone kill them.

      I learned to kill people with hands, feet, pistols, rifles, automatic weapons, grenade launchers, rocket launchers, artillery and air strikes. It’s serious business, and it’s not about the lived experience of your trans etc colleagues, it’s about the death experience of the people on the other end. At least if you’re doing it right.. It’s horrible but necessary.

      FFS.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        The last time America won a war this is how they thought
        …..hugs anyone ?

        Be seated.

        Men, all this stuff you hear about America not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the war, is a lot of horse dung. Americans love to fight. All real Americans love the sting and clash of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big-league ball players and the toughest boxers. Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Americans play to win all the time. That’s why Americans have never lost and will never lose a war. The very thought of losing is hateful to Americans. Battle is the most significant competition in which a man can indulge. It brings out all that is best and it removes all that is base.

        You are not all going to die. Only two percent of you right here today would be killed in a major battle. Every man is scared in his first action. If he says he’s not, he’s a goddamn liar. But the real hero is the man who fights even though he’s scared. Some men will get over their fright in a minute under fire, some take an hour, and for some it takes days. But the real man never lets his fear of death overpower his honor, his sense of duty to his country, and his innate manhood.

        All through your army career you men have bitched about what you call ‘this chicken-shit drilling.’ That is all for a purpose—to ensure instant obedience to orders and to create constant alertness. This must be bred into every soldier. I don’t give a fuck for a man who is not always on his toes. But the drilling has made veterans of all you men. You are ready! A man has to be alert all the time if he expects to keep on breathing. If not, some German son-of-a-bitch will sneak up behind him and beat him to death with a sock full of shit. There are four hundred neatly marked graves in Sicily, all because one man went to sleep on the job—but they are German graves, because we caught the bastard asleep before his officer did.

        An army is a team. It lives, eats, sleeps, and fights as a team. This individual hero stuff is bullshit. The bilious bastards who write that stuff for the Saturday Evening Post don’t know any more about real battle than they do about fucking. And we have the best team—we have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit and the best men in the world. Why, by God, I actually pity these poor bastards we’re going up against.

        All the real heroes are not storybook combat fighters. Every single man in the army plays a vital role. So don’t ever let up. Don’t ever think that your job is unimportant. What if every truck driver decided that he didn’t like the whine of the shells and turned yellow and jumped headlong into a ditch? That cowardly bastard could say to himself, ‘Hell, they won’t miss me, just one man in thousands.’ What if every man said that? Where in the hell would we be then? No, thank God, Americans don’t say that. Every man does his job. Every man is important. The ordnance men are needed to supply the guns, the quartermaster is needed to bring up the food and clothes for us because where we are going there isn’t a hell of a lot to steal. Every last damn man in the mess hall, even the one who boils the water to keep us from getting the GI shits, has a job to do.

        Each man must think not only of himself, but think of his buddy fighting alongside him. We don’t want yellow cowards in the army. They should be killed off like flies. If not, they will go back home after the war, goddamn cowards, and breed more cowards. The brave men will breed more brave men. Kill off the goddamn cowards and we’ll have a nation of brave men.

        One of the bravest men I saw in the African campaign was on a telegraph pole in the midst of furious fire while we were moving toward Tunis. I stopped and asked him what the hell he was doing up there. He answered, ‘Fixing the wire, sir.’ ‘Isn’t it a little unhealthy up there right now?’ I asked. ‘Yes sir, but this goddamn wire has got to be fixed.’ I asked, ‘Don’t those planes strafing the road bother you?’ And he answered, ‘No sir, but you sure as hell do.’ Now, there was a real soldier. A real man. A man who devoted all he had to his duty, no matter how great the odds, no matter how seemingly insignificant his duty appeared at the time.

        And you should have seen the trucks on the road to Gabès. Those drivers were magnificent. All day and all night they crawled along those son-of-a-bitch roads, never stopping, never deviating from their course with shells bursting all around them. Many of the men drove over 40 consecutive hours. We got through on good old American guts. These were not combat men. But they were soldiers with a job to do. They were part of a team. Without them the fight would have been lost.

        Sure, we all want to go home. We want to get this war over with. But you can’t win a war lying down. The quickest way to get it over with is to get the bastards who started it. We want to get the hell over there and clean the goddamn thing up, and then get at those purple-pissing Japs. The quicker they are whipped, the quicker we go home. The shortest way home is through Berlin and Tokyo. So keep moving. And when we get to Berlin, I am personally going to shoot that paper-hanging son-of-a-bitch Hitler.

        When a man is lying in a shell hole, if he just stays there all day, a Boche will get him eventually. The hell with that. My men don’t dig foxholes. Foxholes only slow up an offensive. Keep moving. We’ll win this war, but we’ll win it only by fighting and showing the Germans that we’ve got more guts than they have or ever will have. We’re not just going to shoot the bastards, we’re going to rip out their living goddamned guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks. We’re going to murder those lousy Hun cocksuckers by the bushel-fucking-basket.

        Some of you men are wondering whether or not you’ll chicken out under fire. Don’t worry about it. I can assure you that you’ll all do your duty. War is a bloody business, a killing business. The Nazis are the enemy. Wade into them, spill their blood or they will spill yours. Shoot them in the guts. Rip open their belly. When shells are hitting all around you and you wipe the dirt from your face and you realize that it’s not dirt, it’s the blood and gut of what was once your best friend, you’ll know what to do.

        I don’t want any messages saying ‘I’m holding my position.’ We’re not holding a goddamned thing. We’re advancing constantly and we’re not interested in holding anything except the enemy’s balls. We’re going to hold him by his balls and we’re going to kick him in the ass; twist his balls and kick the living shit out of him all the time. Our plan of operation is to advance and keep on advancing. We’re going to go through the enemy like shit through a tinhorn.

        There will be some complaints that we’re pushing our people too hard. I don’t give a damn about such complaints. I believe that an ounce of sweat will save a gallon of blood. The harder we push, the more Germans we kill. The more Germans we kill, the fewer of our men will be killed. Pushing harder means fewer casualties. I want you all to remember that. My men don’t surrender. I don’t want to hear of any soldier under my command being captured unless he is hit. Even if you are hit, you can still fight. That’s not just bullshit either. I want men like the lieutenant in Libya who, with a Luger against his chest, swept aside the gun with his hand, jerked his helmet off with the other and busted the hell out of the Boche with the helmet. Then he picked up the gun and he killed another German. All this time the man had a bullet through his lung. That’s a man for you!

        Don’t forget, you don’t know I’m here at all. No word of that fact is to be mentioned in any letters. The world is not supposed to know what the hell they did with me. I’m not supposed to be commanding this army. I’m not even supposed to be in England. Let the first bastards to find out be the goddamned Germans. Some day, I want them to rise up on their piss-soaked hind legs and howl ‘Ach! It’s the goddamned Third Army and that son-of-a-bitch Patton again!’

        Then there’s one thing you men will be able to say when this war is over and you get back home. Thirty years from now when you’re sitting by your fireside with your grandson on your knee and he asks, ‘What did you do in the great World War Two?’ You won’t have to cough and say, ‘Well, your granddaddy shoveled shit in Louisiana.’ No sir, you can look him straight in the eye and say ‘Son, your granddaddy rode with the great Third Army and a son-of-a-goddamned-bitch named George Patton!’

        All right, you sons of bitches. You know how I feel. I’ll be proud to lead you wonderful guys in battle anytime, anywhere. That’s all.

        George S Patton

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        It’s precisely this sort of thing that the Food and Grocery Code of Conduct was designed to put a stop to.

        We’ll be fine.
        Besides, I kind’a like noodles.
        And already can fluently say thank you in Cantonese. Really freaks out the native speakers too.

    • Someone ElseMEMBER

      Wow, times are changing. The Army psyche who did my first panel asked what the three rules of the Army were. “No pöfs, no pöfs, and no pöfs” was the answer he gave.

  5. Happened to catch a bit of *shudder* The Project tonight when they ran a story on the crowd booing at the Australian Open when Tennis Australia President Jay ne Hrdlicka praised the vaccine and Dan Andrews.

    Cut back to the panel and there was just indignation that the crowd would boo the government who made it possible for them to be there and they seemed genuinely miffed that people might not like the idea of being jabbed with an unproven vaccine. Waste of time and space, that show.

    • They found someone to condescendingly sneer at. Job done. Having virtue signalled to all wokesters they can go to bed satisfied that they have told other people what to think.

      Identifying a problem is easy. Working with people of diverse viewpoints and advancing towards a compromise solution is hard.

        • Still though, it’s one thing to boo during a match, it’s very poor form to boo the winner, but to boo the perfunctory organisers bs? That’s unheard of. I have no idea what was on that stoopid show and probably agree with the second comment above but at the tennis that really doesn’t go on.

  6. The bears are licking their lips and circling on twitter tonight looking at Chinese markets and S&P 500 futures

    • It only took scrotomo getting caught out in the sexual assault maelstrom for him to throw another conservative principle to the wolves. (when this bloke talks about women and children first he’s thinking sacrifices).

  7. Bond yields rise …

    Bond Yields Climb as Stocks Slump; Copper Rallies: Markets Wrap … Andreea Papuc and Lynn Thomasson Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-21/asian-stocks-set-for-muted-open-currencies-steady-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-asia

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-set-muted-open-205006242.html

    • Inflation risk sends copper climbing above $9,000 a ton
    • Technology companies lead decline in European equities

    Bonds deepened a selloff and metals rallied, with copper vaulting above $9,000 a ton, as investors priced in bets for inflation and economic growth. Technology shares led losses in equities.

    A key part of the Treasuries curve — the gap between 5- and 30-year yields — touched the highest level in more than five years. Bond yields from Australia, the U.K. and Spain climbed, underscoring the challenge facing central banks that have fought to keep borrowing costs low. … view and read more via hyperlink above …

    Treasury yields climb amid economic recovery hopes … Vicky McKeever … CNBC

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/us-bonds-treasury-yields-climb-amid-economic-recovery-hopes.html

    Dow futures fall 170 points as bond yields extend rise … William Watts … MarketWatch

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-fall-170-points-as-bond-yields-extend-rise-11613997467