Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian stock markets are somewhat mixed given the stumble on Wall Streets return from a long weekend overnight, with overextended Japanese stocks falling back the most as expected while mainland Chinese risk markets remained closed for NY holidays. Bitcoin has again briefly touched the magical $50K level, as is trails ever higher ready for a proper breakout as nothing can stop this bubble:

The Shanghai Composite remains closed but the Hang Seng Index surged again, this time over 1.3%, currently at 31094 points while Japanese markets have finally pulled back from their bubble, with the Nikkei 225 finishing 0.6% lower at 30293 points. The USDJPY pair has done a similar pullback, after a way overextended and overbought move after bouncing off the mid 104 level late last week, now back below the 106 level but really unchanged:

The ASX200 was also in sell mode with a modest loss of only 0.5% to close at just below the 6900 point level with the Australian dollar still looking a bit deflated here at the mid 77’s after the recent reversal of USD weakness, but still at a two week high:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are tracking sideways going into the London session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 in hesitation mode still as Wall Street tries to regain some lost confidence over the weekend with the clear breakout above the 3900 point level still wanting to extend into a possible 4000 point break soon:

The economic calendar ramps up again tonight with US retail sales for January, plus the latest FOMC minutes.

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Comments

  1. As an aside, I listened to the Senate audio today and, boy, that Jacquie Lambie is one (likely rightly) aggrieved lady. The emotional intensity she aroused for the worse-off among us was admirable. Admittedly, I am not sure how she sustained it.

    • That seems such a contrived Twitter thread. Ticks all the boxes of the correct thinkers.
      I don’t believe it really happened except in the mind of a very smug inner urban fervid imagination.

  2. ‘Population shock’ to cause short-term oversupply of housing, inner-city apartments to be hardest hit … Rachel wells … Domain

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/population-shock-to-cause-short-term-oversupply-of-housing-inner-city-apartments-to-be-hardest-hit-1027091/

    Will demand for detached homes wane post-HomeBuilder? … Gerv Tacadena … Your Mortgage

    https://www.yourmortgage.com.au/mortgage-news/will-demand-for-detached-homes-wane-posthomebuilder/275487/

  3. I’ve got a couple of questions about Water Rights Trading
    Anyone know what they’re doing wrt this sort of trading?
    I’ve been looking through some data sets and have noticed a lot of opportunities for various forms of Statistical Arbitrage especially between zones, sort of 3 way Paired trades up and down the rivers.
    looks real good on paper.
    Has anyone got real world experience in this market?

  4. My frustration with journalism is turning into pity.
    I can’t think of anything worse than having to write something every day and always having to have an angle even if it means contradicting your angle of 6 months ago.

  5. Ah the Catholics …. one among many who are experts at “flights of fantasy”

    We should remove all private and church-based school funding as well as the tax-free rubbish they get away with.

    He said the issue of schools funding had been settled two to three years ago when the Catholic system was successful in securing a special funding deal from the federal government after waging a political battle for more funding.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/catholic-leader-dismisses-school-funding-reform-as-flight-of-fantasy-20210217-p573a2.html

    • Yep it would be great if we could turn back time and avoid all these divisions in our education sector but as it is today (especially wrt to the inner half of our cities) it is far too costly to build new schools (about $250K/student for high school) at that price we are all better off paying the catholic system to maintain schools in regions where the state system sold down their schools two decades back, to enable infill housing and high rise apartment development. Now we have insane demand in these suburbs and no available public school spaces.
      It’s all completely F’ed up, but I’ve come to the conclusion that this is exactly how our Politicians like things. I think they profit from pushing things into the “something needs to be done urgently” box

  6. Stunning Images Reveal Massive Commercial Jet Parking Lot Amid Travel Collapse … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/stunning-images-reveal-commercial-jets-parking-lot-airfields-travel-crash

    Aerial images show hundreds of commercial jets gathering dust in huge airfields across America due to Covid travel restrictions … UK Daily Mail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9265435/Aerial-images-hundreds-commercial-jets-gathering-dust-huge-airfields-US.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

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