Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian stock markets are generally lower given the wavering confidence on global stocks with Chinese bourses closed due to NY holidays. The USD remains fixed a little against the major currency pairs in the wake of the higher than expected US initial jobless claims overnight. Bitcoin continues to soar ever upward, spinning spinning towards freedom, almost reaching the $50K level but still scratching along above $47K this afternoon:

The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index are closed for Chinese NY holidays while Japanese markets reopened with the Nikkei 225 sliding back 0.3% to 29480 points as the USDJPY pair is trying vainly to get out of its funk, after bottoming out all week, and still looking very weak:

The ASX200 moved out of its trading range and slumped over 0.7% to finish out the week just above the 6800 point level with the Australian dollar coming back a little this afternoon after surging up through the previous intraweek high at the 77.40 level with the four hourly chart pushing a bearish megaphone pattern:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are tracking lower going into the London session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing more hesitation building here after failing to make any move above the 3900 point level stick as momentum begins to taper and this reflation rally runs out of puff:

The economic calendar finishes the week with a whimper given the long weekend in the US, with only Treasury bond auctions on the agenda.

Have a great weekend and stay safe – especially you Victorians!

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Comments

          • No such thing kid … its not a binary sell and buy and I posted Barry’s investigation E.g. back to Laws and south seas level of financial malfeasance aka its the proverbial coyote suspended in mid air …

          • Oh please! You’ve been saying that for 10 years, Laws didn’t last that long before the Louisiana house of cards collapsed6

          • “The “bubble” burst at the end of 1720,[12] when opponents of the financier attempted to convert their notes into specie (gold and silver) en masse, forcing the bank to stop payment on its paper note”

            Short squeeze 😂😂

          • Again past is only an indicator of the what and whys regards of money standard or regulations … never the less the lesson is observed.

          • Free, to be completely decentralised. Say what you want blind Freddy can see a proliferation of exchange nodes inherently reduces the capacity for manipulation, and bitcoin trading has never stopped being available 24/7. Ever.
            There’s no close, no strike, no call, no put on one exchange that can’t be wiped out by action in another.

          • qty of exchanges is irrelevant. What matters is whether the owners of the exchange have a vested interest in the price of the asset being traded.

          • Something about expectations and status I guess ….

            PS … he seems to flit around with employment a fair bit …

          • Is there anything more mundane than attributing junk pschyanalysis whilst failing to account for the physical exigences and getting torn to pieces climbing that to that higher ground?

          • Would you care to elaborate? Mig is nuts, but he’sright about Boomers being pond scum. And Skipdouche is always proclaiming moral superiority, but he hates it when someone righteously plays that card against him.

          • I’m no Boomer but I’m also not a fan of the self righteous millennials who’d have you believe they’ve dragged themselves up by the bootstraps despite the single hardship they’ve ever faced is the price of housing. How hard it must be to be born into a generation who can become wealthy by posting cutesy photos of themselves on Instagram…

            Torn to pieces ….lol.

            The boomers faced conscription into a literal war in SE Asia. You know – real bullets and deaths and stuff. Surely nothing compared to a uni degree in cosmopolitan Melbourne followed by a well paid job in computing.

            The horror. The horror.

          • Not a millennial here but Gen Xer who can see the deck is heavily stacked in the Boomers favour.
            I have benefited partially from Boomer perks but the drawbridge is usually pulled up when I am half way across.

          • Ooh. Now I’m curious to hear the real world examples of a millennial who’s suffered “physical exigences and getting torn to pieces climbing that to that higher ground “.

            Seriously. Please do tell. Life is so hard for the generation who’s most pressing physical ailment is RSI in their text thumb.

          • @Fishing72 …

            Tell it mate … how many of these key board capitalists could feed and shelter themselves without paying others to do it for them …

          • Hey Skippy,

            You know “boomer” could be both a marketing myth and a useful generalisation.
            Or are you saying a cohort isn’t influenced by their environment?

          • Reus's largeMEMBER

            The only good thing about skippy and mig is that when they comment I know to move on to the next comment thread!

          • @Reus’s large …

            Good thing about your comments is the lack of anything substantive so one can skip it.

          • No genius you’ll be torn to shreds as you believe there’s “no there there” but irrespective of whether one perceives how they attained their heights, making good strategic and tacital use of it will still be a winning move. As you cry about the physiological ignominy of it all.

          • What part of Bernays did you not grok and as a sampler – Curtis doco Century of the Self is confusing …..

          • I get your point.
            My point is both could be true.
            eg. it could be both a marketing myth and a useful generalisation.

          • Maybe the part where Bernays can’t account for the hippie generation turning into hardbiten pro Trump Qtards?

          • Skippy needs to be curb-stomped. As do the rest of the boomers who were born on third base. Ch^nting knobs.

          • “.. Hey Skippy,
            But why don’t you answer the question?..”

            Chortle! No rhetorical questions Sweeper.

          • Hi, this is Skippy SCS (Shining Corporate Star), thank you for your enquiry.
            I am off with the fairies, so I have engaged Skippy Bot to comment as per below instructions:
            For all comments regarding economics, monetary and fiscal:
            Refer to Michael Hudson at Nakedcapitalism ad hoc and copy/paste as applicable propter hoc.
            For (all) other comments refer to Wikipedia and copy/paste as applicable ex-post ante.
            In case of comments that can not be processed through above options, Skippy Bot will revert to default state i.e. utter random demented ramblings blaming everything and nothing in particular on the Chicago Boys/Powell memo interspersed with mentions of Bernays sauce. If OP is not able to decipher random demented ramblings, blame it on OP’s intellectual shortcomings and agnotology.
            And always remember the Categorical Imperative: Deflect from banking and the tribe at all cost
            (banking=tribe …rimshot…).
            Eternally Yours,
            Skippy SCS Shining Corporate Star ref: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/01/macro-afternoon-1044/#comment-4060998
            This is an automatically generated message, please do not reply.

    • Jumping jack flash

      I realised a while ago that the problems we have here are the same as the ones they have everywhere. I guess everyone tries the same solutions to their same problems and then ends up with the same set of additional problems caused by those solutions.

  1. We will never, ever, concede. Because when there’s fraud, deception, mind control, propaganda, psyop, weaponisation of narratives involved, you go by very different rules.

    Hang all the Trumptards

    • You’re going to be so embarrassed by this attitude in twenty years. Don’t stress- everyone feels the same about some sh1t they said or did when they thought they knew it all.

      • Lol! I’d say you would be but you won’t, like the boomers you’ll just become more toxic.

        FYI I’m just saying the same thing I’ve been saying since I was 5. Generally I don’t give a fvck what anyone does, but if you talk sh!t I always hope you have to answer for it

          • Mig is a flummoxed metrosexual that still has mommy and daddy issues and projects that on the entire world because it throws sand in his expectations of how everyone else should accommodate his personal preferences …

          • My answer is you get what you asked for. Trump signed off on more executions than anyone in decades! If the maga cap fits…

          • Nothing. The macro angle is the boomers have a lot of money and lot of stupid but they’re done as a political force, all they can do now is spend the next 20 years coping retribution.

          • Yes that’s right, fight fire with fire etc. I genuinely don’t think there’s another generation that’s as mass manipulated as the boomers, the generation of Ophra and day-time TV and all over the western world the right wing politics have been driving them into a “lock the fort” mentality and it’s toxic. Why should the rest of us have to put up with this abrasion?

  2. Think I’ve worked it out, all the multi nationals paying no tax here are just following the property guys. Owners pay no tax, just the workers.

    Only difference is the multi nationals don’t rip the tax office off, as much.

    • I bought Robert’s complete recordings as a double CD back in the 1980s sometime when CDs were still a new thang, and I still listen to them today.

      Some of the numbers like “Malted Milk” are nothing special, but when you hear a man singing about having a Hellhound on his trail and Blues fallin’ down like rain as though he Really Really Means it….well…it still makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up today.

      • I bought the double remastered CD in about 1990, and learnt all the songs (not to play guitar, a bit difficult for a non-finger picker and non slide player).

        I never got all that spookiness, but what I did get was how modern and major (chord) sounding, in songs like malted milk.

        In spite of teh difficulty in listening to it, I marvelled at how accessible (some of) the songs were.

        Others are using quite complex time signatures, and sound straight off the plantations.

        There’s a pretty good doco about how many bluesmen came from that little strip of dirt on the delta.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          That doco the one by Scorsese?

          There was another one, a three or four parter that had a book and wicked CD set with it that I was always going to buy but never did. History of the Blues I think.

          • I saw that movie as a young bloke, and it was what persuaded me to learn about music and how to play guitar. I thought I love music but I know nothing about how it works and I can’t play a note on any instrument, which sucks. 35 years later I own…errmmm…17 guitars, play with a band, perform at public jam sessions and there are those who say I still know nothing about music and can’t play a note. 🙂

  3. Just read the “Dictator Dan” article.
    What the heck? The guy is the one leader in the world to defeat a second wave, despite constant undermining from journalism.

    Morrison has done sfa to bring forward the vaccine or slow arrivals until at least the vaccine is rolled out (both are obviously linked and are under his control) when you’ve got a more infectious and deadly strain.
    Yet Dan is the bad guy… again.
    We are on the path of becoming ungovernable due to journalism (like the US).

    • Reus's largeMEMBER

      umm if you “out source” your quarantine to a “company that pays for your campaign” that keeps fcuking up and causing the state to go into lock down then you have not done a good job, it is like smashing and glass on the floor in a crowded place and multiple people die from the cuts of the glass but you “did a good job” because you swept up the glass afterwards … ! fcuk dictator Dan

      • Hay fkwit … try out the idea you have a one in a century event and due to neoliberalism every public response has been outsourced and now those same ideologues are – now – criticizing any response that that they ***emotively feel*** because it screw with their mangled sense of reality …. self inflicted quasi religious warriors get comeuppance thingy …

      • they were staff at the holiday inn.
        How does the government not outsource accommodation?
        Have them quarantine in Spring St?

        Howard sold off every commonwealth government building. free markets.

  4. “I don’t know wikileaks, it’s not my thing”

    That’s when I knew for sure the fat pos was a con and fraud. Too late for me of course, I’d already embarrassed myself spouting the idiots rubbish like it was sincere.

      • What does that even mean? Anyway bitcoin has never turned central banker on me and when even though I swear up and down the FBI owe me 11 bitcoin they stole when they raided silkroad, bitcoin didn’t turn me in.

        No not with bitcoin, but I did make the same mistake with Trump that I made with Obama, he didn’t close down gitmo ever much less day one!

        • willful belief in fairytales.
          that the most grotesque manifestation of a dysfunctional system can somehow be it’s antidote.
          Imagine if Trump was assessed based on market cap.

          • The ***belief*** that there is or ever has been a immutable store of labour value is not supported by history, furthermore its construct is founded on some magic coding faerie dust that artificially induces scarcity on the notion that rarity equals price.

            LMMAO if Barry smells a rat I think one should seriously consider the ramifications, that’s on top of him saying the involvement has been “life changing”, not that it has zero productivity attached to it or that it consumes resources that could be utilized for it w/ a side of misapplication and then some believe they are Capitalists and not rank Speculation gamblers – see run up to the great depression.

      • And when Trump talked about putting hilldawg in jail and exposing Obama and Brennan – I was down for that. But he didn’t do it. So if I get my dream of seeing a high rank politician go to jail or close and its Trump instead of Hillary? Its all good I don’t the difference.

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Twas the Night before Lockdown

    Twas the night before Lockdown, when all through the house
    Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.
    The toilet rolls were stacked in the cupboard with care,
    In fear that the local Supermarket shelves would soon be bare.

    The children were nestled all snug in their beds,
    While the sound of cancelled swimming lessons danced in their heads.
    And mamma in her ‘kerchief, and I in my cap,
    We settled our brains for a week of home schooling & crap.

  6. My idiot friend over spent on a house by $80k tonight but someone thinks he’s saved money because he was willing to go higher. Lol.

    But then again we may be in for high inflation so it might all come out in the wash. People willing to pay $1m+ for houses in Oakleigh South under power lines.. I’ll never understand.

  7. United States … over – stimulus on a massive scale … what are the consequences ? …

    Here Comes A Blockbuster Retail Sales Report: BofA Card Data Shows Surge In Spending … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/prepare-blockbuster-retail-sales-report-bofa-card-data-shows-surge-spending

    Port Of Long Beach Has Best January On Record … Kim Link – Wills … FreightWays / Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/port-long-beach-has-best-january-record

    Biggest Winners From Biden’s Stimulus: Middle-Class Family Of 4 Will Qualify For $12,800 Over Next 15 Months … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biggest-winners-bidens-stimulus-middle-class-family-4-will-qualify-12800-over-next-15

    Goldman Sachs Interview with Stanley Druckenmiller, Chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_u2AI7ZWAk

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