Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are generally higher except for local stocks despite continued mixed leads from Wall Street and European stocks overnight with local currencies still strong despite the USD coming back a little against the majors in the wake of the lower US inflation print. Bitcoin continues to stall, falling below the $45K level as momentum reverts from its overbought status on the four hourly charts:

The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 1.4% going into the close, moving further above the 3600 point barrier to 3655 points while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is up 0.4% to 30173 points, also staying above its own key 30000 point level. Japanese markets were closed for yet another holiday while the  USDJPY pair was also largely unchanged at the mid 104 level but still looking very weak:

The ASX200 is still stuck in a trading range with a small fall of 0.1% to close at 6850 points with the Australian dollar surging a little this afternoon to get back to its previous intraweek high at the 77.40 level as it possibly turns this consolidation into a new breakout:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are tracking sideways going into the London session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a lot of hesitation here after failing to make any move above the 3900 point level stick as momentum begins to taper and this reflation rally runs out of puff:

The economic calendar includes US initial jobless claims and the continued circus in the Senate.

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Comments

  1. New Zealand … ebbing economic confidence ? …

    Interest Co NZ report late today …

    A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; Toyota Finance cuts rates, retail spending falls, more concrete poured, NZGB yields jump, long rates turn lower, NZD slips, & more … David Chaston … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/109005/review-things-you-need-know-you-go-home-thursday-toyota-finance-cuts-rates-retail

    … extracts …

    YIELDS JUMP

    The scaled-back Government bond tenders today were popular as usual, but investors are wanting and getting sharp increases in yields. $450 mln was offered in three tranches and they attracted more than $1.6 bln in bids leaving almost $1.2 bln unsatisfied. The May 2024 issue went for a 0.41% yield and that was up from 0.29% two weeks prior. The April 2027 issue went for 0.84% yield and that was up from 0.58% in two weeks. And the May 2041 issue went for 2.21% and up from 1.90% two weeks ago.

    NZD SLIPS FURTHER

    The Kiwi dollar is still slipping and now at 72.1 USc. On the cross rates we are slipping too against the Aussie at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down to 59.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is down to just on 73.5.

  2. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    Ermo … surely you have some pull with the NSW chapter to support your Victorian Brethren?

    https://www.medianet.com.au/releases/196787/

    Today the Victorian Branch of the Plumbers Union joined with the national electrical, maritime, public transport and construction unions’ campaign to stop Scott Morrison’s IR Omnibus Bill.

  3. TailorTrashMEMBER

    So I did compare the meerkat for car insurance
    today and got a whole bunch of quotes from insurance companies ( brands ) I never heard of
    All substantially lower that the big name company I’m with . Looks like a lot of outfits there to take the premiums but wonder how they’d go at paying out if needed .

    • Most of the smaller insurers are underwritten by larger companies. It’s all very incenstuous.

      I don’t have time to reads 1000s of pages of T&C’s. So it’s a big gamble..

  4. Say hello to Alexei Navalny’s libertarian multimillionaire backer
    Yasha Levine 13 hr ago

    Last week Evgenia and I released an episode where we talked about Alexei Navalny’s neoliberalism. We stressed that Navalny isn’t against oligarchs or even the existence of an oligarchy, he’s simply against Putin’s oligarchs. Well, we came across another data point that confirms our view of things.

    And that data point is Evgeny Chichvarkin.

    https://yasha.substack.com/p/say-hello-to-alexei-navalnys-libertarian

      • Being anti neoliberal, you know the ideology, which is threatening both democracy and capitalism is commie in your book – ??????

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          It’s sick commie! Everyone should be free and Liberal. (I support our great Liberal party as they protect liberal freedoms)

          • Free is an abstraction and Liberal has many meanings over time.

            Are you suggesting your pro neoliberalism, seems likely as the only thing you can muster is un-quantified name calling when confronted with the above.

          • Given skippy’s complete inability to explain anything clearly I’m not the least surprised he misunderstands reusa…

          • Response moded for some reason, no word issues.

            bjw678

            Difficult to condense complexity down to level low information people can grok, hence their demands that the it be made so or its rubbish or best yet its the other person that has some cognitive dramas and not their good selves* = *usually some environmentally gifted ideological bias that only responds with emotive spews when challenged.

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Chinamen lady I’m with for this part of the evening just told me it’s New Year’s Eve! Sweet, I’m getting on the goods! She is providing the table.