Joye: RBA will do MOAR not less

Monday, 1 February 2021

Via Chris Joye at Coolabah Capital:

While we are very bullish on Antipodean growth over the next 12 months, there is certainly a lot to be anxious about at present.

We have a 50 per cent probability that China tries to take Taiwan in the next few years, triggering an immediate conflict with the US and the spectre of World War Three. That would almost certainly activate Australia’s ANZUS treaty with the US, and prevent us from selling iron ore, coal or natural gas to our biggest trading partner.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.