SQM Research has released its Stock on Market report for January, which reported a seasonal decline in monthly property listings across almost every market:
Over the year, listings fell by 10.5% nationally, with every market other than Melbourne and Sydney posting declines.
Melbourne has obviously bucked the broader trend with listing up a whopping 21.1% year-on-year.
New listings (30 days) are also declining, 24.6% over the course of January with 16,234 fewer properties on the market. However, new listings were up year-on-year:
According to SQM managing director, Louis Christopher:
“The month of January traditionally records falls in properties listed for sale as the market is still in a summer holiday mode. This year was no exception. However, when we consider the number of new listings compared to January 2020, there was a material rise in nearly all cities. This finding is consistent with the observed early start to the auction market over January and February.”
CoreLogic’s monthly housing report also reported a sharp fall in listings:
Inventory levels started 2021 in a tight position. The number of fresh listings added to the market nationally over the four weeks ending January 24th was 3.3% lower than the same period a year ago and 13.3% below the five year average.
Melbourne and Perth were the only capital city markets to buck the trend, with new listings 20.8% higher than a year ago in Melbourne and 2.2% higher across Perth. “Melbourne vendors may still be playing catch-up from the earlier lockdown period, while in Perth vendors seem to be relishing the best selling conditions seen in many years,” Mr Lawless said.
Although fresh stock being added to the market is close to the same levels a year ago, total advertised inventory started the year around record lows. Nationally, total listing numbers, which include new listings plus re-listed properties, were 27.8% lower than this time last year, tracking 29.3% below the five year average. Melbourne was the only city to record total listing numbers that were higher than last year, up 7.7%.
At the same time, sales volumes have risen materially:
The market outside of Melbourne is incredibly tight at the moment, which helps to explain the surging price growth.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)
UE, what impact is the rental kick out moratorium having over the market?
Please buy my house I have a tenant that can’t pay or we have come to an agreement $x.xx per week and they are here until the end of March 2021.
Will be curious to see what real impact this is having.
DingwallMEMBER
How many PI’s are watching renters incentivised to turn tail and buy houses? No immigration suggests no new renters to fill the void as well as alleged movement out of major cities.
They won’t want to sell but rents surely keep falling for a while longer. Feels like a lot of PI’s are just HODLing and crossing their fingers?
jimbo
Yep, with zero immigration, people are either buying additional homes OR renters are becoming owners. The latter means investors might eventually get a touch nervous, especially if borders remain closed.
Arthur Schopenhauer
Access to credit. QED.
jimbo
+1
Magic Pudding
When you say credit I presume you are talking about the TFF credit which has seen the banks draw down $100 Billion and used it to create new mortgages to purchase bankrupt / insolvent borrowers?
Well, someone has to pay the interest. It doesn’t matter who, or how.
In a debt economy where enormous and constantly growing piles of debt are absolutely essential to own, it makes perfect sense for the CB to contribute to the interest payments – the effect of this being lower mortgage rates for the people so they can take on more debt.
JaponMEMBER
Government Welfare for Property bludgers
GavinMEMBER
Kind of ties into yesterday’s report on people moving out of Melbourne and Sydney for the regions.
Magic Pudding
I have been banging on about SQM research for 6 months as it refutes everything that CoreLogic has said – nothing posted on this website in all that time. Then, January figures come out – the lowest selling point in the entire YEAR and lo and behold MB post an article on the lack of supply – WHOCOULDOFKNOWN !!
What an fing joke.
Lets wait and see after March – when support wraps up as we have been saying since the pandemic began.
Jumping jack flash
Agree,
we should all know a lot about a lot of things by the end of March.
TailorTrashMEMBER
As Rusa might say ….happiness is a tight property market …..
Display NameMEMBER
I have been monitoring a bunch of south coast towns for a possible purchase. I had spent some hours on domain on Sunday. Last night, Tuesday evening I pull up domain and two of the towns I had been searching came up with suggestions that there were 90 and 32 new listings to view. In 2 days. Been looking at these places for 12 months (lots of cheap sh!tty projects homes) and have not seen a spike like this before
LSWCHPMEMBER
Canberra’s market is tighter than a fish’s bumhole. Fck all for sale, and what is available is grotesquely overpriced with hordes of people at open homes.
DingwallMEMBER
And speaking of bumholes……. Canberra
jkambah
Yes, its a worrying trend for me as I was hoping to upgrade later this year. Early to mid 2020 there seemed to be a reasonable selection of houses on Allhomes. I had been hoping for lower prices but the way things are trending it would not surprise if houses in the better Canberra locations go up to match Melbourne levels.
Getting value for money seems impossible in the next few years. Once the borders are open again things will get even pricier until one fine day, the housing tulip mania reaches a maddening peak and finally cracks.
I expect to pay a silly price for something that will not retain its value.
Fadden has some nice houses, but I do not want to live there. I understand its one of the suburbs that is impacted by fumes from the Mugga Lane rubbish dump.
20%+ annualised growth easily over the next few months
Counterfiat
Jeff Bezos retired at the age of 57 with a net worth of $185 billion.
Amazing how making his own coffee at home, and not eating avo toast got him there.
haroldusMEMBER
I also think he didn’t go overseas all the time, and didn’t upgrade his phone every year.
Counterfiat
Saved on 10billion haircuts.
Counterfiat
Quit while he was in his Prime.
Counterfiat
The rumours that Jeff Bezos is leaving Amazon to join Ermington Plumbing have been greatly exaggerated.
GoldMEMBER
So Ermo was responsible for the divorce. He must be worth it.
Aussie1929MEMBER
Licking my lips at the flood of potential defaults/foreclosures in a couple years. Looking at the big picture, the global economy is shakier than an angry old man’s stick. By that time, could be buying a first house with a few ounces of silver after the paper and physical price decouples.
but but the borders are closed
UE, what impact is the rental kick out moratorium having over the market?
Please buy my house I have a tenant that can’t pay or we have come to an agreement $x.xx per week and they are here until the end of March 2021.
Will be curious to see what real impact this is having.
How many PI’s are watching renters incentivised to turn tail and buy houses? No immigration suggests no new renters to fill the void as well as alleged movement out of major cities.
They won’t want to sell but rents surely keep falling for a while longer. Feels like a lot of PI’s are just HODLing and crossing their fingers?
Yep, with zero immigration, people are either buying additional homes OR renters are becoming owners. The latter means investors might eventually get a touch nervous, especially if borders remain closed.
Access to credit. QED.
+1
When you say credit I presume you are talking about the TFF credit which has seen the banks draw down $100 Billion and used it to create new mortgages to purchase bankrupt / insolvent borrowers?
https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operations/announcements/increase-and-extension-to-further-support-the-australian-economy.html
Well, someone has to pay the interest. It doesn’t matter who, or how.
In a debt economy where enormous and constantly growing piles of debt are absolutely essential to own, it makes perfect sense for the CB to contribute to the interest payments – the effect of this being lower mortgage rates for the people so they can take on more debt.
Government Welfare for Property bludgers
Kind of ties into yesterday’s report on people moving out of Melbourne and Sydney for the regions.
I have been banging on about SQM research for 6 months as it refutes everything that CoreLogic has said – nothing posted on this website in all that time. Then, January figures come out – the lowest selling point in the entire YEAR and lo and behold MB post an article on the lack of supply – WHOCOULDOFKNOWN !!
What an fing joke.
Lets wait and see after March – when support wraps up as we have been saying since the pandemic began.
Agree,
we should all know a lot about a lot of things by the end of March.
As Rusa might say ….happiness is a tight property market …..
I have been monitoring a bunch of south coast towns for a possible purchase. I had spent some hours on domain on Sunday. Last night, Tuesday evening I pull up domain and two of the towns I had been searching came up with suggestions that there were 90 and 32 new listings to view. In 2 days. Been looking at these places for 12 months (lots of cheap sh!tty projects homes) and have not seen a spike like this before
Canberra’s market is tighter than a fish’s bumhole. Fck all for sale, and what is available is grotesquely overpriced with hordes of people at open homes.
And speaking of bumholes……. Canberra
Yes, its a worrying trend for me as I was hoping to upgrade later this year. Early to mid 2020 there seemed to be a reasonable selection of houses on Allhomes. I had been hoping for lower prices but the way things are trending it would not surprise if houses in the better Canberra locations go up to match Melbourne levels.
Getting value for money seems impossible in the next few years. Once the borders are open again things will get even pricier until one fine day, the housing tulip mania reaches a maddening peak and finally cracks.
I expect to pay a silly price for something that will not retain its value.
Fadden has some nice houses, but I do not want to live there. I understand its one of the suburbs that is impacted by fumes from the Mugga Lane rubbish dump.
20%+ annualised growth easily over the next few months
Jeff Bezos retired at the age of 57 with a net worth of $185 billion.
Amazing how making his own coffee at home, and not eating avo toast got him there.
I also think he didn’t go overseas all the time, and didn’t upgrade his phone every year.
Saved on 10billion haircuts.
Quit while he was in his Prime.
The rumours that Jeff Bezos is leaving Amazon to join Ermington Plumbing have been greatly exaggerated.
So Ermo was responsible for the divorce. He must be worth it.
Licking my lips at the flood of potential defaults/foreclosures in a couple years. Looking at the big picture, the global economy is shakier than an angry old man’s stick. By that time, could be buying a first house with a few ounces of silver after the paper and physical price decouples.