Remember this:
One of the most popular programs in Australia last year was Struggle Street, a series about the poor Sydney neighbourhood of Mount Druitt. It beat other reality TV shows and was the most-watched show in Sydney. It depicted poverty, alcoholism and drugs. The show was condemned by some as “poverty porn” before the broadcast but received a strong response upon broadcast and trended on Twitter around the country. Prices in Mount Druitt are up over 50% since 2012 and in neighbouring Rooty Hill they are also up 50% since 2012.
In Australia, even the poor and drug-dependent can be property millionaires.
So how do people on modest incomes afford such expensive houses? Poor underwriting is the answer.
The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) all insist that there are almost no low-doc or no-doc loans. They also insist there are few high loan-to-value ratio loans. The truth is much worse.
Underwriting standards are poor in banks. The regulators trust the big four banks’ statistics, but we’ve seen that underwriting standards are much worse than advertised.
In our due diligence, we told mortgage brokers and bank managers that we required a 95% loan-to-value mortgage at 10x our gross household income to buy our dream house, and we were consistently told it was not a problem at all. All we needed were two payslips and mortgage insurance. We asked if the bank would call our employer, and both reputable and disreputable brokers said banks rarely verified payslips. Also, “most of the people checking documents are in Indian call centres.” Furthermore, we were told that as long as the payslips had the right Australian Business Number (ABN) and the business checked out, that was enough.
This is not how it has to be. In the UK, for instance, after the credit crunch, banks are far more thorough when verifying income. The bank cross-checks payslips with one’s bank account to see the net amount received corresponds to the gross amount paid. A lengthy affordability questionnaire must be filled out to make sure that pay is sufficient to cover mortgage payments, that are also stress-tested for higher rates. Bonuses, once nonchalantly taken as regular income, are much more strictly dealt with. No-deposit and minimal-deposit loans are much rarer and harder to obtain. Similarly, the US has tightened lending standards since the financial crisis.
But in Australia, more alarmingly, we were informed from various sources that disreputable brokers had software to make authentic looking tax returns for clients who needed mortgages. We were encouraged to lie about our incomes by multiple brokers in order to get dodgy loans past bank loan officers.
It should come as no surprise that lending standards have fallen as third-party origination of mortgages has risen. This was typical of standards in the US in 2005-07. Today, almost half of new housing loans are originated by third parties.
But our biggest surprise came when we visited a building society (a thrift). The bank manager told us her lending standards were conservative compared to the big banks. She would check our income more thoroughly. She then encouraged us to take a 95% loan to value ratio at 10x our gross income because, “It isn’t worth saving another 5% when house prices will rise more than 5%. By the time you save the 5%, prices will rise exponentially.” Those were her words, not ours.
Needless to say, John Hempton of Bronte Capital and your dumbfounded analyst from Variant Perception wandered around Sydney in shock and amusement after every meeting.
No more, says John Hempton at the AFR:
“More responsible lending – at least relative to where Australia was – and lower interest rates have eased concerns,” Mr Hempton told The Australian Financial Review, “That said, prices and lending are at levels way above where other economies have had problems.”
…“There are adjustment mechanisms for Australia that were not available in Ireland or Spain. Both those countries used the euro and their exchange rate is fixed versus their main trading partner (Germany).”
“The Australian dollar floats. So if there are problems I would expect the Australian dollar to get very weak, and the very weak currency to flow through to worker incomes. That will ease difficulties.”
“The extreme example of a country with a floating exchange rate that eventually weathered a housing crash was Norway. Norway exports oil and oil services and shipping and is very dependent on China. Think of it as WA on the Baltic.”
“When they floated the Kroner the currency plummeted – and their banking crisis went away.”
…“I would be long Manly beach houses and short north western Sydney if it were possible. The Manly beach house is attractive to the expat. The north western Sydney place does not benefit as much from a falling Australian dollar.”
And so falls another Australian housing bear. Welcome to the club, John.
